Over(valued)/Under(valued): Wide receiver
When it comes to making sleeper and bust picks, it's all relative to the player's average draft position. With that in mind, I asked each Yahoo! fantasy expert to break the wide receiver position down into three parts - the early rounds, middle rounds and late rounds - and provide an overvalued (bust) and undervalued (sleeper) selection for each section, based upon Yahoo! wide receiver ADP. Let's take a look:
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EARLY ROUNDS - ADP value of Rounds 1 through 5
Funston says:
Overvalued: Larry Fitzgerald. Fitz may be the most complete receiver in the league, but with a dire supporting cast last season he couldn't even crack the top 40 at wide receiver in fantasy scoring. Sure, Carson Palmer is an upgrade at QB, but that offensive line might still be one of the worst in the league (don't make the mistake of thinking the return of Levi Brown is a good thing). And, with 58 sacks allowed last season, I'm worried about the statuesque Palmer's livelihood. I'll buy that Fitzgerald returns to the top 15 at his position, but top seven (his current ADP)? You can have him at that price.
Undervalued: Dwayne Bowe. I'll take Bowe at his current price (41.1 ADP) all day, any day. In Andy Reid's 14 seasons as an NFL coach, he's produced top 10 fantasy passing production 11 times. Alex Smith is going to throw it a ton, and Bowe is the clear go-to guy. Look for Bowe to return to 1,000-plus yards, 10-plus TD levels.
Scott Pianowski says:
Overvalued: Andre Johnson. I realize Johnson is a monster between the 20s and he sure looks unstoppable on the tape. But where are the 10-touchdown seasons? Are we going to forget his injury problems in 2010 and 2011? Someone surely believes in him more than I do.
Undervalued: Dwayne Bowe. He finally has a creative head coach, Andy Reid, who can get him the ball against all kinds of coverage. Alex Smith is no star-maker, but he's an upgrade over the recent train wreck at quarterback.
Dalton Del Don says:
Overvalued: Reggie Wayne. He looked rejuvenated in Bruce Arians' system over the first half of last year, lining up at different spots at the line of scrimmage for the first time in his career. But the soon to be 35-year-old faded badly over the second half (520 yards, two touchdowns over final eight games) and will be switching to a new offensive system. I wouldn't bank on another 195 targets (that resulted in only five touchdowns), that's for sure.
Undervalued: Danny Amendola. I know he's an injury risk, but if he somehow stays healthy he's going to beat his ADP (48.6) by a significant margin now that he's in New England. He's currently the 20th WR off the board in Yahoo! leagues. I personally have him ranked as my No. 11 wideout.
Brad Evans says:
Overvalued: Wes Welker. Even he admitted recently his role will diminish greatly in Denver. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are superior red-zone targets and John Fox wants to feature a more balanced attack. Bottom line: You’re paying an exorbitant price for a probable 70-850-5 receiver.
Undervalued: Larry Fitzgerald. Let’s see, the Cards added Carson Palmer, hired a coach that relishes bombarding defenses vertically and bolstered the offensive line. If Fitz doesn’t finish inside the WR top-three, Vince Young has a future in accounting.
Andy Behrens says:
Overvalued: Wes Welker. There's not much chance I'll land Welker in any format at his current price (ADP 44.9). I fully expect Thomas and Decker to dominate the red-zone looks, so Welker will need a huge yardage season to deliver top-20 value at his position. I don't see it happening, not with reduced targets.
Undervalued: Reggie Wayne. He was targeted 195 times last season, plus he's tied to an exceptional young quarterback. I find it strange that he falls all the way to No. 17 at his position.
MIDDLE ROUNDS - ADP value of Rounds 6 through 10
Funston says:
Overvalued: Stevie Johnson. With a new coach that brings a run-heavy approach, a QB situation among the worst in the league and Johnson's move from an outside position to the inside (slot), there's just too many unknown variables in play for me to trust another 1,000-yard, 6-plus TD performance from Johnson. Admittedly, as the No. 32 receiver off the board, his price isn't exorbitant. But I just have a feeling the Bills passing game is going to be a mess, and there's at least a half-dozen receivers going later than Johnson that I'd rather have.
Undervalued: Pierre Garcon. He was one of my preseason favorites last season, and everything was headed in the right direction for Garcon to have a monster season before a toe injury derailed things. Reportedly, his toe has been a non-issue in camp, where he's looked great, thus far. RGIII says he'll lean on him, and I have no doubt he will. As the No. 25 WR on average off the board, he's an absolute steal. He's top 20 in my book.
Scott Pianowski says:
Overvalued: Danario Alexander. He had two excellent months last year and I enjoyed it as much as anyone. But I'm not going to forget his messy resume, which is littered with team releases and knee surgeries. There's a significant downside here.
Undervalued: Antonio Brown. The Steelers knew what they were doing when they extended Brown last summer and eventually let Mike Wallace walk out the door. Throw in Heath Miller's injury concerns and Brown appears to be a lock as Ben Roethlisberger's top receiver. He's still on the escalator.
Dalton Del Don says:
Overvalued: James Jones. Love the setup in Green Bay, but he remains the team's No. 3 option in the passing game. Expecting anything close to last year's 14 touchdowns on just 64 catches/98 targets would be unreasonable. James has never had a season in which he's recorded even 800 receiving yards.
Undervalued: Greg Jennings. I don't love banking on wide receivers changing teams, and he's obviously undergoing about as drastic of a downgrade at quarterback as possible, but Jennings should see a ton of targets as Minnesota's clear No. 1 option. I'd definitely take him over James Jones (who's going higher), that's for sure.
Brad Evans says:
Overvalued: Mike Wallace. Ryan Tannehill throws a terrific deep ball, but the pair have had their chemistry issues thus far in camp. Equally problematic, Brian Hartline isn’t exactly a pressure-reliever. Defenses will often rotate an extra safety over the top to contain Wallace. He’s more WR3 than WR2 material.
Undervalued: Cecil Shorts. The only reason the ex-Mount Union star is falling in drafts is his affiliation with Blaine Gabbert, which is unfair. With the wayward QB under center last year, he still posted top-10 numbers. Because Justin Blackmon will miss the regular season’s first four games, Shorts roars out of the gates.
Andy Behrens says:
Overvalued: Mike Wallace. He's coming off a messy season in Pittsburgh, transitioning to an offense where everything is brand new. I don't think he'll enjoy the drop-off from Roethlisberger to Tannehill, either.
Undervalued: Tavon Austin. This kid has star potential and the Rams will use him all over the field. Imagine a quicker, healthier version of Percy Harvin.
LATE ROUNDS - ADP value of Rounds 11 and beyond
Funston says:
Overvalued: TY Hilton. I love his T-Y touchdown celebration, but I wouldn't expect him to do his TD dance another eight times in '13. Darrius Heyward-Bey is running ahead of him in camp, and I suspect we'll see more targets for second-year tight end Dwayne Allen (and Coby Fleener). Also, Indy will likely look to pound the rock more with punishing runner Ahmad Bradshaw in tow.
Undervalued: Golden Tate. He's going to rise up the ADP chart quickly with news of the Percy Harvin hip surgery, but I'm certain he still won't come close to residing where he should on the list. In his contract year, Tate is being used in camp in every single Seahawks offensive package. While not on the level of Harvin's talent, Tate still has the versatility to lineup anywhere on the field. He's excellent after the catch, and as the Green Bay game showed last season, he's skilled at coming away with the ball in traffic. He's got top 30 WR upside.
Scott Pianowski says:
Overvalued: Cordarrelle Patterson. He came into the NFL as more athlete than polished receiver, and it's not like he gets a bump working with Christian Ponder. I'm not expecting much from the rookie in 2013; you win again, rookie receiver learning curve.
Undervalued: Golden Tate. Sidney Rice becomes a buzzy name with the Percy Harvin news, but what about fourth-year man Golden Tate? The Notre Dame product collected a sneaky 688 yards and seven scores (six of them legitimate) on a modest 67 targets last year. More growth could be on the way.
Dalton Del Don says:
Overvalued: Michael Crabtree. Hey, I'm a Niners fan and love Crabtree, but there's simply no reason to draft him after he suffered a catastrophic Achilles' tear, let alone in the 11th-12th round. Frankly, I'm not quite sure what's going on here.
Undervalued: Golden Tate. This is cheating since it's based on the news Percy Harvin has to undergo hip surgery, but still, I have Tate ranked significantly higher (as a top-30 fantasy WR). If it's fairer to name another since Tate's ADP is sure to rise soon, give me Chris Givens, who I think has at least a 50/50 chance of producing a better fantasy season than teammate Tavon Austin, who's going much higher (about 50 picks) in drafts.
Brad Evans says:
Overvalued: Denarius Moore. I’m fond of his talent level and deep-ball skills, but Matt Flynn passes beyond 20 yards resemble a drunk bumblebee. Sorry Black Hole, but it’s going to be a very long year, particularly for the pass game.
Undervalued: Mike Williams. The All-Rodney Dangerfield selection doesn’t get enough respect. In two of his first three seasons in the league, he’s finished well-inside the position’s top-30. As long as Josh Freeman remains under center, another 65-950-9 campaign is achievable.
Andy Behrens says:
Overvalued: Justin Blackmon. I hate calling any late-round player "overvalued," but Blackmon really doesn't have much going for him at the moment. He's suspended for four weeks, he just underwent groin surgery, and his quarterback — whether it's Henne or Gabbert — won't be much good. Lots of red flags here.
Undervalued: Michael Floyd. Things are obviously looking up in Arizona now that Bruce Arians is on the sideline and Carson Palmer is behind center. Floyd benefits from not only from the personnel upgrades, but also from the fact that defenses have to make Larry Fitzgerald the primary focus.
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