Over(valued)/Under(valued): Quarterbacks
When it comes to making sleeper and bust picks, it's all relative to the player's average draft position. With that in mind, I asked each Yahoo! fantasy expert to break the quarterback position down into three parts - the early rounds, middle rounds and late rounds - and provide an overvalued (bust) and undervalued (sleeper) selection for each section, based upon Yahoo! quarterback ADP. Let's take a look:
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EARLY ROUNDS - ADP value of Rounds 1 through 4
Funston says:
Overvalued: Colin Kaepernick. He's going No. 5 among QBs, on average, which is higher than his production as a starter last season (No. 8 QB from Week 11 thru 17). And he loses his two favorite targets from last season - Michael Crabtree and Delanie Walker. Kaepernick is definitely top 10 QB material, but top 5 is way too presumptuous.
Undervalued: Cam Newton. He puts up good fantasy numbers even when he has a bad day under the lens of reality. He's been top 4 at QB in each of his first two seasons, and you have to assume his best days are still ahead of him.
Scott Pianowski says:
Overvalued: Tom Brady. You never say never with Tom Brady, but he's 36 and dealing with his weakest receiver group since 2006. I'll have to really like the price before I spend on him - and this is coming from a New England fan and a University of Michigan fan. Pick with your head, not with your heart.
Undervalued: Cam Newton. It's simple algebra - Cam Newton's running numbers give you a major push forward in our fake game. And unlike some of the other mobile quarterbacks, you don't worry as much about injury with Newton, given his size and body type.
Dalton Del Don says:
Overvalued: Aaron Rodgers. I'll say it again, I believe Rodgers is the most valuable player in the NFL, but in fantasy terms, he's not worth a borderline first round pick, and it's not his fault. It remains unwise to spend such a high pick on the quarterback position unless you can start two of them.
Undervalued: Tom Brady Colin Kaepernick was close, but if Brady is going later, then him (assuming his latest knee scare isn't an issue). Just take what your draft gives you when it comes to quarterbacks. I personally believe the loss of New England WRs and TEs is overrated and has made Brady, who's clearly an all-time great, a better value.
Brad Evans says:
Overvalued: Tom Brady. It appears he dodged a bullet in practice this week, but I’m still lukewarm about Tom Terrific. Though Kenbrell Thompkins has stood out, Brady's receiving corps, absent Gronk, is largely unproven. Add that with a superb ground game spearheaded by Stevan Ridley, and it seems entirely likely Brady will fall short of 30 passing touchdowns this season. His track-record is spectacular, but it’s hard to justify him as a QB6. The difference between Brady and Tony Romo, going some 50 picks later, will be negligible.
Undervalued: Drew Brees. This isn’t a statement regarding Rodgers’ top-billing, but rather where Brees falls compared to the rest of the field. Going at the back-end of Round 2 or much later (He went in Round 4 of the Friends and Family 14-man draft this week), the most prolific passer in the league is being disrespected. Yes, QB is extraordinarily deep, but the man is eyeing 6,000 yards and has accounted for a combined 90-plus touchdowns since 2011. His floor is as high as they come.
Andy Behrens says:
Overvalued: Cam Newton. This is simply a case of hating the price, yet loving the player. I've got nothing bad to say about Cam. I just don't love that he's going 60 picks ahead of Tony Romo and almost 90 ahead of Michael Vick.
Undervalued: Peyton Manning. Not exactly a sleeper, I realize. But this feature requires me to pick someone from the opening rounds. Peyton is the quarterback most likely to match the passing totals delivered by Brees and Rodgers. He's surrounded by elite weapons and coming off a 4659-yard, 37-touchdown season.
MIDDLE ROUNDS - ADP value of Rounds 5 through 9
Funston says:
Overvalued: Robert Griffin III. With so much of his value derived from his rushing stats, and coming off an ACL injury, there's probably more risk with RGIII than any other QB1. I'm a believer in his ability to overcome, but he's the most logical choice here given the givens.
Undervalued: Russell Wilson. Tony Romo is a popular pick for this range of the draft, and I completely concur with that line of thinking. But for the sake of diversity, I'll offer up Wilson. Don't hold Wilson's first-half of his rookie season against him - Seattle had him on the shortest of leashes. But it opened up the playbook (including a healthy dose of the read-option) and Wilson exploded with the top fantasy QB value for the second-half of '12, and he carried his roll into the postseason. As the No. 8 QB, on average, off the draft board, he's going 2-3 spots too low.
Scott Pianowski says:
Overvalued: Robert Griffin III. I hate picking on RGIII, one of my favorite players in the league, but given his health status and the questions about Washington's play design, I can't draft him aggressively. The Redskins aren't dumb - they realize they have to limit the amount of kill shots Griffin absorbs on a week-to-week basis. Let someone else pay for the buzzy name. Griffin's just another guy if those dreamy rushing numbers collapse.
Undervalued: Matt Ryan. The Falcons have an aging feature back and a spotty offensive line - which means they'll probably have to manufacture (and camouflage) things through the passing game. No worries - Matt Ryan is working with two elite wideouts and perhaps the best tight end of all time. Sounds like a terrific deal in the fifth or sixth round.
Dalton Del Don says:
Overvalued: Matthew Stafford. He was the 10th most valuable fantasy QB last season despite attempting 36 more passes in a season than any other quarterback in NFL history while playing in a dome and having one of the greatest wide receivers ever at his disposal (and somehow rushing for four TDs). Imagine what a disaster Stafford would be if Calvin Johnson got hurt. His career YPA is 6.9!
Undervalued: Tony Romo. There's a clear cut top-12 when it comes to fantasy QBs this year, and Romo should be viewed as on par with the likes of Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford, although it's hard to build a strong case for taking the latter over him. Romo is viewed as a choker, which is odd for someone with the highest fourth quarter QB rating of all-time.
Brad Evans says:
Overvalued: Andrew Luck. Every signal caller is reasonably priced, but if there’s one who likely won’t exceed expectations it’s Luck. Pep Hamilton’s double tight-end, run-heavy offense may not translate into a banner year for the sophomore QB, despite his familiarity running it. His 6.37 YPA and 49.8 completion rate over the final eight games of 2012 also isn’t encouraging. And I’m not buying that he scrambles into the end-zone another five times. Add it all up, and I’m down slightly on Luck.
Undervalued: Tony Romo. It’s stunning how Romo continuously gets dissed. He’s far from a diseased asset. Since 2007, the Cowboys slinger has ranked inside the position’s top-10 every year. The weapons around him (Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Miles Austin and DeMarco Murray), when healthy, are deadly. Having Bill Callahan call the offensive shots is also a major plus. Only the injury imp would squash any hope for a 4,500-passing yard, 30-35 TD campaign.
Andy Behrens says:
Overvalued: Robert Griffin III. Man, I really do hate this feature. Have I mentioned that before? Well, I do. Obviously I think RG3 is great. Everyone agrees that he is. But I don't think his receivers are anything special, and I'm expecting his rushing workload to be somewhat diminished. I'll be (moderately) surprised (but not really) if he matches last season's per-game fantasy output.
Undervalued: Matthew Stafford. It's rarely a clinic with Stafford, but A) he's the guy who gets to throw to Megatron and B) he put the ball in the air 727 times last season. I'm expecting him to split the difference between his 2011 and 2012 TD totals (41, 20), while delivering another big yardage number. His touchdowns were fluky-low last season; Lions receivers were tackled inside the 5-yard line a league-high 23 times. The addition of Reggie Bush to this passing game should make a significant impact.
LATE ROUNDS - ADP value of Rounds 10 and beyond
Funston says:
Overvalued: Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has played all 16 games in a season once in his nine years as a starter. He's only twice topped 3,600 passing yards. And this season, the Pittsburgh passing environment could be tough to overcome as supreme field-stretcher Mike Wallace is in Miami and trusty favorite target Heath Miller is working his way back (slowly) from an ACL injury. Don't afford Big Ben anything more than mid-level backup status in your fantasy draft.
Undervalued: Alex Smith. I believe in Andy Reid, and I believe that Smith has the requisite skills to run Reid's West Coast system. In Reid's 14 seasons as an NFL head coach, he's produced top 10 fantasy passing numbers 11 times. In league's where a backup QB seems like a good idea, Smith is at the top of my list of targets.
Scott Pianowski says:
Overvalued: Michael Vick. Vick has played one full season in the NFL - that's *one* over a ten-year career. He's rushed for two piddly touchdowns over the last two years. He probably handed out four turnovers while you were reading this graph. I'm not in love with the skill players in Philadelphia, either. Go ahead and talk yourself into Vick, and good luck.
Undervalued: Alex Smith. Andy Reid passes to set up the pass, and the Chiefs have some fun puzzle pieces to play with (especially Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe). Alex Smith is a super target for your QB2, and he might sneak into the QB1 discussion at some point in 2013.
Dalton Del Don says:
Overvalued: Ryan Tannehill. There's no doubt some upside here, but after so many glowing reports in camp, Tannehill has appeared to take a step back, and he's failed badly to develop a rapport with newcomer Mike Wallace.
Undervalued: Carson Palmer. He somehow got 7.6 YPA over the last two years for a dysfunctional Raiders team and will now be joining an Arizona squad with a coach who emphasizes downfield passing with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts as weapons. The Cardinals' rushing attack should be a problem as well, and the team will likely have to throw a ton in one the league's best divisions.
Brad Evans says:
Overvalued: Eli Manning. Younger Manning is an iron-man. The beneficiary of outstanding protection, he’s yet to miss a game as a starter. However, last season’s 1,000-yard decline in passing yards and string of underwhelming performances don’t instill confidence. Hakeem Nicks’ perpetual setbacks don’t either. Off his worst fantasy year since 2008, hEli has essentially become a matchup-only play. Chase the upside of Vick, Carson Palmer or Sam Bradford some 30-40 picks later.
Undervalued: Michael Vick. Once the top-10 QBs come off the board there is no quarterback with more top-five potential than Vick. Granted it's a small sample size, but has looked brilliant for Philly this preseason. Gifted clean pockets, Vick has displayed vintage velocity, delivering the ball accurately and on-time to his intended targets. He may not run as much as people think – Kelly previously stated he wants a throwing QB that occasionally runs, not a running QB that occasionally throws – but if protected adequately he’s still capable of tallying nuclear numbers.
Andy Behrens says:
Overvalued: Ben Roethlisberger. He's got no Mike Wallace this year, and probably no Heath Miller, at least for a while. I don't see who's going to catch all the touchdowns. I like Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders just fine, but don't see 'em as dominant red-zone targets.
Undervalued: Matt Schaub. Honestly, I'm only picking Schaub because I'm assuming most others are going Vick. (Understandably so.) Schaub is a complete afterthought at the draft table (ADP 127.1), but the guy has passed for over 4000 yards in three of the past four years. He also attempted 544 passes last season, so don't give me that run-heavy-offense crap. Volume isn't a worry here.
