Why Obama could lose in 2012

By Marc Ambinder
National Journal

Conventional wisdom has begun to settle in: The 2012 presidential race is President Obama's to lose. A slowly improving economy, a stagnant Republican pool of opposition, strong personal attributes, and what almost certainly will be a whip-smart campaign team are congealing into something that 50.1 percent of voters representing 270 electoral votes will find palatable. Add to that the GOP's decision to embrace an audacious budget outline by Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., that could make the election a referendum on whether to cut Medicare, Social Security, and other popular entitlement programs and you would seem to have the makings of an Obama second term.

But the president's position is more fragile than it might appear.

Don't read too much into the recent drop in his job-approval rating; Obama's day-to-day numbers are snapshots lighted by circumstances: a crisis overseas, a bloody budget battle at home, and, of course, high gas prices. Seven in 10 Americans, according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, perceive some hardship from the high price of fuel.

Comparing Obama's chances to those of other incumbents who won a second term is difficult because of the once-in-a-generation nature of the Great Recession. His 43 percent approval rating at this point in his presidency is the same as that of Ronald Reagan, who cruised to reelection, but lower than that of George H.W. Bush, who got clobbered. Voters have judged the unemployment rate, now at 8.8 percent (but unofficially higher) in relative, not absolute, terms. Consumer-confidence levels are much lower than they should be, inflation is increasing, wages and incomes are stagnant, and home prices are still falling in major markets.

An enduring and deeper problem is persistent pessimism, particularly among older voters with weak attachment to either party. What worries Obama's advisers most is how long people have been gloomy. Like someone who suffers from depression, these voters have chronically negative views about their economic condition, the political environment, and the prospects for a brighter future. Some 44 percent of Americans believe that the economy will get worse—the highest number since the current crisis began, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll in mid-April. Only a quarter of Americans think the country is on the right track. No president has won reelection with such a low measure of confidence. Pessimism is baked into the electorate.

"I would be surprised if his team is thinking that they've got this one all but wrapped," says Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster who is not affiliated with any 2012 candidate.

The White House is not of one mind about how to reorient the negative schemas of these voters. Cognitive behavioral therapy on depressed independent voters isn't easy. With personal income barely keeping pace with the rate of inflation; the misery index (the unemployment rate plus inflation) still unacceptably high; and Americans depending on a government they perceive as dysfunctional, Reaganesque optimism isn't going to cut it. That's especially true when, according to a USA Today analysis, Americans receive more than 18 percent of their income from the government, an all-time high. "We have to be careful with our message," says an administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "We can't be too sunny, and we need to show empathy."

Because there's little that Obama can do about the present, the White House plans to focus on the future.

"Independent voters have two problems with the president," a White House official said in a West Wing interview last week. "One, they didn't expect him to be a big-spending liberal. I'm not saying he is, but he didn't campaign that way and circumstances, like saving the economy, forced us to spend a lot." The official did not want to be quoted on the record describing Obama's electoral weaknesses.

The second problem, this official conceded, was that Obama had so far not lived up to his promise to change the way Washington works. The reason: health care. These voters were horrified by what they saw going on under the hood. "The issues, which were all in our favor, were eclipsed by the process."

This suggests to White House officials that the way the president manages the process of dealing with Republicans over the next 18 months will be as important to his reelection chances as will the particular outcomes of those dealings. This is a challenge, because Obama faces urgent and insistent calls to harmonize with congressional Democrats, stalling momentum for a compromise.

Brad Todd, a GOP strategist who doesn't work for any 2012 hopeful, said he thinks that independent voters will demand a higher level of intellectual honesty from Obama. "He's not calling for any structural changes to the economy, he's not calling for any major cuts to long-term programs, and he is reverting back to his previous point of raising taxes on people who create jobs. Those things reinforce who that guy is before the election," he said.

In the end, of course, Obama could win next year. Many political handicappers think that will be the outcome. But if public pessimism about the economy, the nation's future, and Obama continues to mount, the other result is just as plausible. All bets, in other words, could be off.

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