Bioterrorism could kill 30 million people
Thirty million people dead in less than a year. That’s the grisly forecast for a successful bioterrorist attack. And it’s more likely than ever, according to experts.
Bill Gates made his fortune bringing personal computing to the world with Windows software. Lately he’s been consumed with closing the window on the next global epidemic.
image credit: David McNew
Advances in biotechnology mean it is now incredibly easy to re-create fast-moving, airborne pathogens, like smallpox or the Spanish flu.
Patented in 2014, CRISPR-Cas9, is a gene-editing technique that uses molecular scissors to precisely snip genetic code. It’s a scientific marvel. With it, researchers have modified genes to help blind people see, cure sickle cell disease in some patients and expedite the development of numerous new drug treatments.
They have also been able to create antibiotic-resistant forms of E. coli.
CRISPR-Cas9 is unregulated, inexpensive and somewhat of a cottage industry. In 2016, the Nuffield Council of Bioethics warned that “garage scientists” might unwittingly create a modified organism that could kill millions.
Gates is thinking more strategically. His foundation works in developing nations. He understands the perils of bad actors in unstable environments. He’s worried about biotechnology being weaponized.
A single infected person strategically placed in a busy airport could ultimately kill millions.
“The scariest thing is something like the 1919 [Spanish] flu,” Gates warned at a gathering at the Royal United Services Institute in London. Modern travel coupled with the fact that people have no immunity to that strain would be an unstoppable, deadly combination.
His concern is well founded. In the developed world, we worry about bad actors getting their hands on nuclear materials. Though tragic, a nuclear bomb would not kill 10 million people.
Gates reckons that an infected traveler could be the starting point for a human-to-human respiratory infection. And it would all begin with simple aches and sniffles. The Spanish Flu of 1919 killed 50 million people.
While this is unsettling, we should not count out the good guys. The fact that Gates is involved is a big positive. He understands the scope of the potential problem, and he’s making plans.
We also should not discount the potential for investors. Gene-editing is a legitimate scientific breakthrough. Yet even to the well-informed, it seems like science fiction. For the first time ever, scientists have a very precise tool to reprogram the genetic code of life. The possibilities are endless.
Researchers believe they can eradicate malaria by genetically modifying the mosquitos that carry the parasite. Malaria kills 1,000 children per day, and 200 million people are affected annually.
Others are working with innovative cancer-fighting immunology drugs and new HIV-AIDS treatments.
Drug discovery, treatment and healthcare in general are at an inflection point. CRISPR-Cas9 is set to change everything.
The threat of bioterrorism is real but it’s not the only possible outcome of genetic editing that matters. It’s best for investors to focus on companies creating winners in technology, drugs and the insurance industries.
One large company supplying tools for the effort is Illumina Inc. (ILMN), a $25 billion medical-device supplier in San Diego. It’s been trading sideways for three years — and now, at $180, is about 15% off its peak. Worth a look.
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