Bill Self’s take on KU Jayhawks’ struggles down the stretch & NCAA Tournament outlook

Kansas men’s basketball has struggled for an extended period of time, dropping four of its last five games and eight of 15 starting with a loss at West Virginia on Jan. 20.

Yet the Jayhawks, who will take a 22-10 record into the NCAA Tournament after losing to Cincinnati 72-52 in the second round of the Big 12 tourney Wednesday at T-Mobile Center, have fallen just nine slots in the AP poll — from No. 7 to No. 16 — in that span.

That speaks well to KU’s NET strength of schedule, which was No. 1 in the country entering postseason conference tournament action. The Jayhawks are currently ranked No. 19 overall in the NET rankings, with nine of their 10 losses against Quadrant 1 teams.

KU is 7-9 vs. Quadrant 1, 6-0 vs. Quad 2, 4-1 vs. Quad 3 and 4-0 vs. Quad 4.

This season, No. 16 Kansas has played No. 1 Houston (twice), No. 2 UConn, No. 5 Tennessee, No. 7 Iowa State, No. 9 Kentucky, No. 10 Marquette, No. 14 Baylor (twice), No. 20 BYU and No. 25 Texas Tech.

“We haven’t done well the past month by KU standards,” KU coach Bill Self said Monday on his Hawk Talk radio show, “but we also in that period ... beat the No. 1 team in the country and beat Baylor, which is going to be a three-seed in the NCAA. We’ve done some pretty good things.”

KU defeated No. 1 Houston 78-65 on Feb. 3 at Allen Fieldhouse and lost to the Cougars 76-46 in the regular-season finale for both teams on March 9 in Houston. KU defeated Baylor 64-61 on Feb. 10 in Lawrence and dropped the rematch to the Bears 82-74 on March 2.

“The game that really really crushed us was BYU at home,” Self stated, referring to a 76-68 setback to the Cougars on Feb. 27 at Allen Fieldhouse.

The Jayhawks are 1-3 since that defeat.

“Do you guys (individuals in Hawk Talk audience) know how good BYU is? Do people understand how good BYU is? They put five guys out there that can all shoot 3s, all Nick’s age or older,” said Self, referring to KU senior guard Nick Timberlake, who is 25.

“They are more mature than any team in America, ranked 20th now,” he added of the Cougars, who possess a 21-10 record following Thursday’s 81-67 loss to Texas Tech in a Big 12 tourney quarterfinal at T-Mobile Center.

“They are a legit threat to do some really good things (in NCAAs),” Self continued. “On that particular day, we had a center (Hunter Dickinson) go 6-of-15 from the line. We couldn’t get anything going. It came down to, ‘Can you get a stop?’ We couldn’t get a stop. That’s how it is in our league.”

The Jayhawks will enter Selection Sunday with 10 losses, most of any KU team heading into the NCAAs in the Self era. One can envision the possibility KU, which expects to welcome back injured players Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar for the NCAA Tournament, could still net a 4-seed because of its strength of schedule or drop to a 5 or 6 because of its play of late.

The Jayhawks have been seeded No. 1 a total of 10 times in Self’s first 20 years at KU. The Jayhawks have been No. 2, 3 and 4 seeds three times in the Self era. KU would have been the No. 1 overall seed had there been a tourney in 2019-20.

Self addressed past seasons near the end of Monday’s Hawk Talk episode.

“When we came here (2003-04), our first year we were awful. We finished second in the league and went to the Elite Eight,” Self joked. “We were one bad call away from having a 50/50 chance going to the Final Four. We lost in the Elite Eight, pretty good year.

“The next two years we lose in the first round (of NCAAs) and it wasn’t any good at all. As a matter of fact, it wasn’t any fun to live here. As a matter of fact, there were a lot of people who wished we didn’t (live in Lawrence) during that time frame. Since then, every year has been boom, boom, boom, boom. We’ve been a 1-seed 11 of the last 17 years (counting 2019-20 when there was no tourney).

“It’s been good, but in the last five or six years we got hammered by Auburn in the second round (89-75 in 2019). We got hammered in the second round (by USC 85-51 in 2021) when Jalen (Wilson) and David McCormack) had COVID. I’m saying to myself, ‘We have to change. What are we doing wrong? Why aren’t we competing for a Final Four every year?’ The next year we signed one player, Remy (Martin), who only played in 10 games the whole season and we win the (2022) national championship with the same group of guys.”

Self pointed out it’s been nice to have teams with depth in the past. This year’s squad has nine scholarship players, six that currently are healthy.

“We have not been good enough to not have help,” Self said. “There have been some years where you’d say, ‘Russell’s (Robinson) hurt, put in Sherron (Collins, 2008 national title team). If Sasha (Kaun) is hurt, let’s play Cole (Aldrich).’

“There’s not teams out there in America like that now. There’s not seven pros on one team in America like that. Maybe Kentucky has a chance, (but) they’re young. With the portal and NIL and everything the players are dispersing and going everywhere. The whole thing is you can still have more depth than what we have, but the reality is your sixth, seventh, eighth men usually aren’t NBA players now like they were when we first got started.”

Self is confident the Jayhawks can make a strong showing in the 2024 NCAAs, “if we are healthy. We haven’t had a good month, but good gosh, it’d be hard to have a good month (with McCullar and Parker Braun ailing and now Dickinson ailing). That doesn’t mean we can’t have a great finish. That’s what our guys have to be jacked up about and feel good about even though it doesn’t look like it right now.”

Continued Self: “Everybody says, ‘Kansas has fallen, this and that,’ and we have. But all we’ve got to do is put it together at the right time. We can be as good as anybody else out there.”

Self has said he believes McCullar (bone bruise left knee) and Dickinson (dislocated right shoulder) will return to practice Monday and be able to play in KU’s first-round tourney game Thursday or Friday. Braun has an ankle injury but played three minutes in the Jayhawks’ loss to Cincy on Wednesday,

Self hopes the return of the two first-team all-league players will help his team get its “swag back.”

“Gosh dang it, if we can get whole we can play with anybody. We’ve proven that,” said Self, whose team has defeated UConn, Kentucky and Tennessee and won at Indiana in the nonconference campaign to go with some big Big 12 wins.

Freshman guard Johnny Furphy said: “When we have our full team, when we have more health and are focused, we are hard to beat. I’m excited to see what the next couple weeks hold.”