Big Ten Wrestling Championships: Predictions for each Penn State wrestler, conference champ

The most fun time of the year is here for Penn State’s wrestlers.

The Nittany Lions will make a 3.5-hour trek south to the University of Maryland for the 110th Big Ten Wrestling Championships, which get underway at 10 a.m. Saturday in the Xfinity Center.

There has been lots of speculation as to Carter Starocci’s availability for the conference tournament, and it’ll be the first glimpse of him since suffering a knee injury in the dual with Edinboro.

When the preseeds for the championships came out Monday, Penn State had all 10 wrestlers seeded in the top six of their respective weights. With such high seedings, it could allow the Nittany Lions to send all 10 to the NCAA Championships for the first time since 2013.

Here’s a look at how we think things will end up this weekend in College Park:

125 POUNDS

Nate Cobler

Outlook: Braeden Davis has lost to two of the five guys listed ahead of him, so it came as no surprise to see him listed as a No. 6 preseed. I don’t see him finishing any lower than this, so he’ll get an automatic spot to the NCAAs. I look for him to make it to the quarterfinals, where he’ll more than likely face Wisconsin’s Eric Barnett. Barnett has lost to the No. 1 seed in Purdue’s Matt Ramos and the No. 4 seed in Minnesota’s Patrick McKee. Davis drops down into the consolation bracket with a loss to Barnett. Should Davis pull off the upset, he’ll get Iowa’s Drake Ayala, who handed Davis his first loss of the year.

Davis’ predicted finish: 5th

Champion: Matt Ramos, Purdue

Jon Sauber

Outlook: Davis comes in with a chance to make a real impression at 125 pounds for Penn State. The weight class has been a struggle for the program in recent years, but the young Nittany Lion has a chance to outperform his preseed and should qualify for NCAAs with relative ease. He’s the No. 6 seed and will likely take on Barnett in the quarterfinals. That’s an upset opportunity for Davis and one I think he’ll take advantage of, advancing to the semifinals before losing to Ayala.

Davis’ predicted finish: 4th

Champion: Patrick McKee, Minnesota

133 POUNDS

Cobler

Outlook: Aaron Nagao finished second in his first appearance in the Big Ten Championships last year with Minnesota. He had a magical run, too, taking out the No. 3 seed in Illinois’ Lucas Byrd and the No. 2 seed in Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez, who is the No. 2 seed in 141 this year. He’ll take on Nebraska’s Jacob Van Dee in the quarterfinals; the two didn’t get to face off in the teams’ previous dual as Nagao was out sick. I’d take Nagao over Van Dee, so he’ll be in the semifinals setting up a rematch with Michigan’s Dylan Ragusin. Even though Nagao has lost four matches this year, head coach Cael Sanderson said Nagao’s best matches will be when it matters most.

Nagao’s predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Aaron Nagao, Penn State

Sauber

Outlook: Nagao has struggled of late, losing three of his last six bouts, but he should be in position to peak in the postseason. There aren’t many wrestlers in the country who are better on top, and it will be vital for the Nittany Lion 133-pounder to lean on that in order to get on track. He got caught by Ragusin in the regular season, and could face him in the semifinals. I like his chances in a rematch, although I think it ultimately leads to a loss to another wrestler he lost to this year in Rutgers’ Dylan Shawver.

Nagao’s predicted finish: 2nd

Champion: Dylan Shawver, Rutgers

141 POUNDS

Cobler

Outlook: Beau Bartlett has been on a different level this year, and it has shown in his wrestling. He seems completely focused on being at the top of the podium of any tournament that he wrestles in this year. Bartlett is the top seed for good reason. Not only is he undefeated, but he has also beaten the four guys listed below him in Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez, Iowa’s Real Woods, Nebraska’s Brock Hardy and Michigan’s Sergio Lemley.

Bartlett’s predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Beau Bartlett, Penn State

Sauber

Outlook: Bartlett continues to wrestle in plenty of close matches because of his counter-attacking style, making him more susceptible in tournament settings — as that can more easily lead to an upset compared to the team’s dominant top-ranked wrestlers who rack up bonus points. However, he’s still undefeated this year and has beaten all of his top competition at the weight in the conference. That being said, I still think he’s going to drop a potential rematch against Mendez.

Bartlett’s predicted finish: 2nd

Champion: Jesse Mendez, Ohio State

149 POUNDS

Cobler

Outlook: Even though Tyler Kasak is the No. 4 preseed, he earned a good draw to get himself to the semifinals. Kasak should make the quarterfinals with ease, where he’ll probably take on Ohio State’s Dylan D’Emilio, who is the No. 5 seed. Kasak already beat D’Emilio, 7-1, in the dual inside Rec Hall. I look for him to fall into the consolation semifinals with another loss to Nebraska’s Ridge Lovett.

Kasak’s predicted finish: 3rd

Champion: Ridge Lovett, Nebraska

Sauber

Outlook: Kasak has been very good for Penn State this year with Shayne Van Ness out for the season, and he has a chance to make more noise this weekend. He’s already defeated his likely quarterfinal opponent in D’Emilio but will likely face the best in the country at the class in Lovett in the semifinals. He gave the Cornhusker 149-pounder all he could handle in their regular season matchup, and should keep it close. Don’t rule out the potential upset, but the smart money is still on Lovett.

Kasak’s predicted finish: 4th

Champion: Ridge Lovett, Nebraska

157 POUNDS

Cobler

Outlook: This weight is Levi Haines to lose. After having a midseason scare from Michigan State’s Chase Saldate, Haines has been rolling by recording bonus points in all of his matches except one. Last year, he was surprising opponents and went on a run that secured his first Big Ten title and his first appearance in the NCAA finals. Haines will have quite the interesting matchup in the quarterfinals against Purdue’s Joey Blaze, should Blaze get past Northwestern’s Trevor Chumbley. Blaze has some nice wins over guys like North Carolina State’s Ed Scott and Nebraska’s Peyton Robb, whom he pinned.

Haines’ predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Levi Haines, Penn State

Sauber

Outlook: I’m not saying Haines won’t face a difficult match at some point this weekend, but he’s the prohibitive favorite and should rack up bonus points. He’s been a machine this season and hasn’t really been tested in a bout since he defeated Saldate by decision. Haines has a clear path to a Big Ten title and should be able to take home his second in two seasons at 157 pounds, with Saldate as the pick to pull off some upsets and fall to Haines in the final.

Haines’ predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Levi Haines, Penn State

165 POUNDS

Cobler

Outlook: Mitchell Mesenbrink is going to have a possible rematch in the semifinals against either Iowa’s Michael Caliendo or Michigan’s Cameron Amine. Mesenbrink really came onto the scene after his dominating performance over Amine in the dual back on Jan. 19. He nearly stalled out the three-time All-American in an 11-1 major decision. Mesenbrink nearly got bonus points against Caliendo, but settled for a 12-6 win. I believe he’ll beat either of those two again, which will hopefully set up a finals match with the No. 1 preseed in Wisconsin’s Dean Hamiti. If it happens, expect at a lot of points to be scored as both guys like to let it fly.

Mesenbrink’s predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State

Sauber

Outlook: Mesenbrink has been a revelation for the Nittany Lions at 165 pounds in his first year with the program, and there’s no sign of that changing. Yes, Hamiti will be his most difficult bout of the season, but Mesenbrink has proven he’s one of the best in the country at 165 pounds, too. A finals matchup between the two could be one of the best bouts — if not the best — of the weekend if it ends up happening. And if it does, I think Mesenbrink ends up winning his first Big Ten title.

Mesenbrink’s predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State

174 POUNDS

Cobler

Outlook: There are two questions here: Is Carter Starocci going to wrestle? If he does, how long will he wrestle? Rumors have swirled about his injury. The way it looked, it appears he may have the same type of injury that Jason Nolf had, but it occurred way closer to the Big Ten Championships than Nolf’s did. Nolf went on to wrestle to the semifinals before defaulting out, and then went on to win his second NCAA title as the No. 2 seed. Starocci needs at least three more matches to be considered for one of the top two spots at the weight for the NCAA Championships. I look for Starocci to take the same approach even though he might not want to, but he could have a quarterfinals match against Indiana’s DJ Washington to get things started.

Starocci’s predicted finish: 6th

Champion: Shane Griffith, Michigan

Sauber

Outlook: If Starocci were healthy, he’d be winning his third straight individual Big Ten title on Sunday. But the injury he suffered against Edinboro looms large over the weekend. It remains to be seen what the specific plan will be for Starocci, but the focus should be on nationals. Yes, his seeding at NCAAs will take a hit, but taking two medical forfeits would give him an extra two weeks to prepare with less risk for more damage. Plus, I’m not overly concerned with where he ends up being seeded, because he’s going to be the favorite either way. If that’s the plan, then Griffith will be the primary beneficiary.

Starocci’s predicted finish: Does not place

Champion: Shane Griffith, Michigan

184 POUNDS

Cobler

Outlook: “It’s time to have fun.” That’s what Bernie Truax said on Monday as he prepared to enter his first and only Big Ten Championships. He went on to talk about how he’s had two losses to Big Ten opponents, so he’s looking forward to possibly getting those back. He’ll have that opportunity as long as Nebraska’s Lenny Pinto reaches the semifinals, as Truax should have no problems getting there.

Truax’s predicted finish: 2nd

Champion: Isaiah Salazar, Minnesota

Sauber

Outlook: Truax should coast to the semifinals and has a legitimate chance to win a Big Ten title at 184 pounds in his only year competing in the conference. However, to do that he’ll have to knock off Pinto, who defeated him by decision less than a month ago. Pinto has been rolling lately, though, and will have a chance to avenge a loss of his own against Minnesota’s Isaiah Salazar if he can defeat Truax again — something I see him doing.

Truax’s predicted finish: 3rd

Champion: Lenny Pinto, Nebraska

197 POUNDS

Cobler

Outlook: Remember what I said about Haines earlier? The same can be said here about Aaron Brooks. Last year, he bonused his way to the 184 pound title. The only way he doesn’t do the same this year at his new weight would be if Iowa’s Zach Glazier, who was the only foe not to give up bonus points to Brooks, gets to the finals. In this race for second place, I look for Glazier to face off with Maryland’s Jaxon Smith in the semifinals. However, Glazier will have a tough matchup with Rutgers’ John Poznanski in the quarterfinals.

Brooks’ predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Aaron Brooks, Penn State

Sauber

Outlook: Spoiler alert — Aaron Brooks is going to win the Big Ten title on Sunday. He’s far and away the best in the conference at 197 pounds and hasn’t exactly been tested this season and shouldn’t be this weekend. Brooks is well on his way to both his fourth Big Ten championship and fourth national championship.

Brooks’ predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Aaron Brooks, Penn State

285 POUNDS

Cobler

Outlook: Michigan’s Mason Parris is gone, which means the proverbial thorn has been removed from Greg Kerkvliet’s side. Parris kept Kerkvliet from winning his first Big Ten and NCAA titles in the past. This year, Kerkvliet is in prime position to get his first conference crown, and much like Haines and Brooks, this tournament is his to lose. One thing to watch is Kerkvliet could get former teammate Seth Nevills, who wrestles for the Terrapins, in the semifinals. Or he could get Rutgers’ Yaraslau Slavikouski, who was beaten decisively by Lucas Cochran in the Bryce Jordan Center dual.

Kerkvliet’s predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State

Sauber

Outlook: Kerkvliet is the heavy favorite to win the title, and the bracket ahead of him no longer has the names of Mason Parris or Gable Steveson — the two wrestlers who won the last four Big Ten championships at heavyweight. That clears the way for Kerkvliet to earn his first Big Ten title and continue what has been a dominant season. Like Brooks, there aren’t any matchups that appear to be troublesome for the Nittany Lion.

Kerkvliet’s predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State

TEAM RACE

Cobler

Outlook: With seven finalists, Penn State could have the team race wrapped up by Saturday night, which would take the excitement out of the team race for Sunday’s wrestling. Also, don’t be surprised to see the Nittany Lions behind in the team race to begin, since they have six wrestlers ranked in the top two of their weights. Those top two wrestlers in a weight get a bye into the quarterfinals. However, that’s easy to overcome with all of those finalists and champions.

Champion: Penn State

Sauber

Outlook: I have nine Nittany Lions finishing in the top four, with six in the finals and four winning their respective weight classes. All three of those numbers would tick up one if Starocci ends up wrestling, too, but even if he doesn’t there’s almost no world where Penn State doesn’t win the team race. It’s just a matter of by how much.

Champion: Penn State

Big Ten Championships

When: Session 1 (First Round, Quarterfinals, Consolations), 10 a.m. Saturday; Session 2 (Consolations, Semifinals), 5 p.m. Saturday; Session 3 (Consolation Semifinals, 7th-Place Matches), Noon Sunday; Session 4 (1st-, 3rd- and 5th- Place Matches) 4:30 p.m. Sunday

Where: Xfinity Center, College Park, Md.

Radio: Big Foot Legends (103.7 & 104.3 FM)

TV: Big Ten Network, Big Ten + (paid subscription)

Online: Radio, Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com

Brackets: TrackWrestling

X: @byncobler, @pennstatewrest