Biden's Hopes for Rare North Carolina Win Start in Rural Trump Country

Michael Sasso
·5 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- North Carolina glimmers as a prize in US presidential politics, and for years, Democrats have targeted its left-leaning boomtowns Charlotte and Raleigh as their path to grabbing it.

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But for a swing state, North Carolina has gone in the Democrats’ direction only once since the late 1970s: Barack Obama’s narrow win in 2008.

The Democrats’ poor record reflects the Tar Heel State’s conflicting nature. Despite its surging cities, it is second only to Texas in the number of rural voters, based on Census Bureau data. And the choices of these rural, Republican-leaning voters effectively overcome those of their urban counterparts.

To help give President Joe Biden a shot against his GOP contender Donald Trump, Democrats are running candidates in local races in small towns that used to go uncontested and encouraging voters to vote the party line up and down the ballot. They’re also highlighting issues, such as development concerns, along with national ones such as abortion.

These politically red areas are also growing in population since 2020, deepening pressure on Democrats to act. State Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton, herself a product of rural Roxboro, hopes that a strong push in small towns will help return Democrats to power in the statehouse in Raleigh, where the GOP holds both chambers, and give Biden another term in Washington.

“We can chip away at the school board, at our state legislative races,” said Jill Hopman, chair of the New Hanover County Democratic Party in Wilmington, one of the state’s most competitive areas. “We are focusing very much on promoting the down-ballot races and telling people to vote up-ballot essentially, because that has definitely, without question, damaged us in past.”

Biden has a lot of ground to make up in North Carolina. Respondents in a February Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll said they would choose Trump over Biden by a 50%-41% margin if the vote were held today. Seventy-two percent said the US economy is going off on the wrong track. North Carolina's economy has outperformed the US overall in recent years, but it’s been trailing faster-growing Southern peers Florida and Texas.

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For its part, the Biden campaign plans to promote the local benefits from the president’s initiatives. “President Biden has fought to deliver for communities across the state, creating good-paying clean energy jobs and capping insulin costs at $35 for seniors, and we’ll bring that message everywhere,” David Berrios, campaign manager for North Carolina, said in a statement.

In the area in and around Wilmington, a port city of about 120,000, Democrats say they’re trying to lure party members and Democratic-leaning unaffiliated voters without leaning too hard on the most polarizing issues. A local concern they’ve taken up is opposing a proposed toll over the Cape Fear Memorial Bridge for needed improvements, a levy they say would unfairly burden people who commute into Wilmington. And in a region that’s seen ugly fights over books in school libraries, Democrats see combating book bans as a winning strategy.

In New Hanover County, which encompasses Wilmington, the number of unaffiliated voters to target is compelling: almost 75,000, more than the estimates of 54,000 registered Republicans and 50,400 Democrats, according to the county’s elections office.

But the split skews decidedly more in favor of Republicans as one crosses the Cape Fear River and heads south over salt marshes into Brunswick County. One of America’s fastest-growing counties, it added 20% more residents since 2020 and now tallies 167,000 people, according to state data.

The GOP has a 2-to-1 advantage over Democrats here, noted Bill Moore, chair of the Brunswick County Republican Party. And while some of the new residents are Democrats or liberal-leaning unaffiliated voters, new voter registrations have favored Republicans.

Historically across the state, turnout of Democratic voters has lagged, with just 51% casting ballots in the 2022 midterms, behind Republicans’ 58.6%. Only 45% of the state’s big pool of unaffiliated voters turned out.

The governor's race could also energize voters from both parties. Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, a Republican backed by Trump, is a polarizing figure with a history of controversial statements, including once referring to transgenderism and homosexuality as "filth." He’s up against Josh Stein, the Democratic attorney general.

Braving Expletives

Bob Fulton’s attempt to highlight a local concern — overdevelopment— in his bid for a seat on the Brunswick County Board of Commissioners underscores the difficulty of Democrats in Trump country.

Throughout the county, developers are quickly bulldozing pine trees and replacing them with giant master-planned communities. On a breezy weekday in the city of Southport, near where the Cape Fear River meets the ocean, Fulton set up a small table outside a voting precinct to solicit signatures to get on the ballot, flanked by campaign signs imploring people to “Stop over-development.”

“Is it against liberals?” a passerby asked. When the 72-year-old Democrat appeared unsure how to respond, the man hurled a four-letter word at him and walked off.

Such reactions wouldn’t surprise members of the North Brunswick Newcomers Club, who on a recent weekday chatted about politics while enjoying barbecue sandwiches in Leland, a Brunswick County boomtown. They’re all retirees primarily from the Northeast or Midwest — and all Democrats.

Barry Meyer, 71, recently migrated from The Villages, a massive retirement community in Florida. While his new home isn’t as partisan, he said Democratic yard signs are a nonstarter.

“You notice how quickly I answer that I would not feel comfortable doing it?” Meyer said. “I just would not feel comfortable.”

--With assistance from Nazmul Ahasan, Shawn Donnan, Gregory Korte and Alexandre Tanzi.

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