The ‘all of the above’ energy success that’s causing Biden headaches

President Joe Biden is presiding over a historic boom in U.S. energy production, with oil, natural gas and renewable power all setting records that would have seemed unfathomable two decades ago.

And almost no one is happy about it.

Republicans are angry about the hundreds of billions of dollars Biden is pouring into incentives for green energy, and his decision to place a temporary cap on the explosive growth of U.S. natural gas exports.

Climate-minded Democrats and environmental advocates, meanwhile, say Biden's approvals of pipelines and other fossil fuel projects violate his pledges to take on climate change — with some warning he’s demoralizing the young voters he needs to win reelection.

All the same, the once-unimaginable milestones keep coming: The U.S. set an all-time record for crude oil production in 2023, outstripping what any country — even Saudi Arabia — has ever produced in one year. Its natural gas exports also lead the world, providing a growing fuel lifeline to Europe and Asia. Wind and solar have emerged as the nation’s fastest-growing source of power, and now contribute nearly 15 percent of the country’s electricity, up from nearly zero 20 years ago.

This abundance, the result of technological advances in drilling, energy tax policy tweaks across multiple administrations, state-level renewable energy production targets and the falling prices of wind and solar energy, means Biden has gotten the closest to an “all of the above” energy economy since presidential candidates from both parties started using the phrase in the 2000s.

But the result has hardly been an era of untroubled bliss for the president. Instead, he faces continued unhappiness among many voters about gasoline prices, which spiked to record highs two years ago. And his administration must make tough decisions about whether, and how, to rein in fossil fuels that drive climate change.

“We are an ‘all of the above’ country in many ways,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper, a Colorado Democrat whose state is one of the country’s largest oil producers. “But is that sufficient? Ultimately we’re going to have to figure out how we get to a clean energy future.”

In addition, some rising energy sources, such as gas and wind, are growing at the expense of other traditional sources, such as coal — adding to Democrats’ electoral woes in coal-producing states like West Virginia.

The term “all of the above,” embraced by past politicians as varied as Barack Obama and former vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, is built on the notion that an abundance of every type of energy will generate jobs, keep costs low for consumers and power the economy forward.

For most lawmakers, though, "all of the above" usually means policy support for the type of energy they prefer. That’s wind and solar power for green-minded Democrats who want to tackle the growing ravages of climate change, and fossil fuels for Republicans who say the U.S. must keep tapping the vast oil and gas reserves that provide the lion’s share of energy for the country.

And since output of nearly every type of energy has jumped over the past 15 years — except coal, whose use has slid dramatically despite abundant supplies — it’s given politicians of all stripes plenty of ammunition.

Republicans say energy supply under Biden may have reached the “all of the above” ideal, but only because Democrats have put their thumb on the scale to favor renewable energy with massive government subsidies.

Biden’s energy policy is “not evidence-based — it's based more on ideology and politics,” Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas said in an interview. Cornyn’s state is the country’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, as well as wind power, and is the home to the headquarters for the electric car giant Tesla.

Cornyn, one of the Republicans aiming to succeed outgoing GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell, said he considered Biden’s signature climate policies in the Inflation Reduction Act “wasted money” — and he would be happy to revisit the law if former President Donald Trump retakes the White House in November’s election.

After all the lip service that politicians have given to an "all of the above" energy policy for two decades, the U.S. appears to have gotten as close to it as it has ever been. For example, it became a net fuel exporter in 2011, the world’s top oil producer in 2018 and the top gas exporter just last year.

“We’re moving on all fronts at the same time,” said Dan Yergin, a Pulitzer-winning energy historian and vice president of the analytics firm S&P Global.

“There’s this huge shift that I don't think is very well appreciated in the United States itself in terms of the U.S. role in global energy,” Yergin said. “So many other countries just wish they could be in the position of the United States when it comes to energy, being able to do all these things at the same time.”

Biden’s policies — both the clean energy ones he’s publicly touted and fossil fuel moves that his administration prefers to keep quiet — have played a role in driving growth in both renewables as well as oil and gas production.

The Inflation Reduction Act and the bipartisan infrastructure law’s hundreds of billions of dollars in incentives are driving a wave of clean energy projects for wind, solar, geothermal, batteries and electric vehicles. And they’ve raised hopes that the country’s aging fleet of nuclear reactors will be replaced with new plants that are smaller and safer.

Meanwhile, Biden’s Interior Department has approved a steady flow of permits to drill on public land and greenlit some massive oil drilling and pipeline projects. That contributed to making last year’s U.S. crude oil output of 12.9 million barrels per day the highest of any country in history, according to the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s independent statistical arm.

But that hasn’t stopped Republicans from hitting Biden for blocking some pipelines and slowing new lease sales to drill on public lands. The Energy Department also announced it would pause the process for issuing new liquefied natural gas export permits.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise derided Biden in a release this month, accusing him of “shutting down American energy while [he] flies to Saudi Arabia and begs them to produce more energy.” That was a reference to a diplomatic trip Biden took to the kingdom in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused oil prices to spike.

Nearly two years after Congress enacted Biden’s mammoth climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, that signature legislation remains politically divisive. But even Republicans acknowledge it is having an impact on the energy landscape.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis, a Wyoming Republican who sits on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said the country’s energy mix was increasingly diverse, though only because of the “massive subsidies” the government is handing to the renewable energy industry.

“The policy of the United States was to pick winners and losers, and pick wind and solar as a winner through tax credit programs,” she said. “They have advanced under our massive subsidies for those industries.”

The White House did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

The boom in renewable power is borne out in the data. Solar power has grown more than tenfold in just over a decade, and its power output is forecast to jump 75 percent over 2023 levels in the next two years. Wind power capacity has tripled in the past decade, with its power production projected to climb more than 10 percent by the end of 2025. Both sources are closing the gap with natural gas, the United States’ largest source of electric power.

Growth of large-scale battery capacity — critical for storing power from wind and solar — is growing exponentially, having gone from nearly zero in 2015 to an expected 30 gigawatts in 2025, or about the capacity of 30 nuclear reactors, according to the the EIA. Output from geothermal and nuclear power, stable for years, is expected to increase amid major investments.

While climate advocates cheer these gains, they say any move by the administration that benefits fossil fuels violates Biden’s pledge to put the fight against climate change at the center of his energy policy.

Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley, one of the Senate’s strongest climate advocates, said Biden’s embrace of “all of the above” energy policies is hurting him with young voters worried about climate change.

“Our young folks are like: ‘You're all going to be dead. You old folks are going to be dead, but we're going to have to live with these stronger storms, bigger forest fires, more smoke, more rising sea levels,’” he told the POLITICO Energy podcast earlier this month.

Like oil production, U.S. natural gas production has also soared to record levels because of advances in drilling technology, hitting 43 trillion cubic feet in 2022, up by half since 2012. That has eroded coal’s dominance in power production.

Sen. Joe Manchin, the West Virginian who heavily shaped both the IRA and the bipartisan infrastructure law — and whose support of fossil fuels frequently angered fellow Democrats — may be the lawmaker most at ease with the "all of the above" approach. He’s urged the White House to lean into the booming oil and gas production as well as renewables ahead of the November election.

“That’s the reason we have the balance we have, that’s the reason we have the energy security and stability we have,” Manchin said about the two laws in an interview with POLITICO. “I’ve said this to the White House: You all are not touting what we did with the IRA and what it did for our country.”

Republicans on the Hill typically offer tepid support for renewable energy projects, even though many of the new manufacturing plants spurred by the IRA are being built in red districts and states.

But they are incensed by moves such as Biden’s pause on new permits for natural gas exports, which are already set to double in the next five years. Those exports will send more than a quarter of U.S. production overseas — and, green advocates say, lock in use of the fuel and its greenhouse gas emissions for decades.

The political irony is that when Obama helped popularize the “all of the above” mantra over a decade ago, it meant making space for more wind and solar projects, said Kevin Book, managing director at consulting firm Clearview Energy.

“Now the phrase means saving space for fossil fuels,” Book said.

For years, “all of the above” was a conveniently vague goal for politicians to use, according to Eli Rubin, senior analyst at EBW Analytics Group. But as long-dominant oil companies come into greater competition with the upstart renewable sector, the two industries and their supporters are increasingly butting heads.

“One could make an argument that many do not actually want ‘all of the above,’” Rubin said. “We see all types of growing movements to either counter the rise of renewables or to shut in LNG exports. It really does seem to kind of be a little bit more politically disparate these days than it did previously.”

Josh Siegel contributed to this report.