Biden, Trump close in Nevada, 6 other swing states; Kennedy candidacy hurts Biden, poll shows
LAS VEGAS (KLAS) — Former President Donald Trump is holding onto his lead over President Joe Biden in a head-to-head matchup in Nevada, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy tilts votes in Trump’s favor when all possible candidates are on the ballot, according to poll results released Tuesday.
An Emerson College Polling/8 News Now/The Hill poll shows Trump with a narrow lead over Biden in a head-to-head matchup in all seven swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The difference is within the poll’s margin of error (+/- 3%), except in Arizona and North Carolina, where Trump has a bigger lead.
Numbers for Nevada show Trump with a 45.1% to 44.2% advantage among Nevada voters with 10.7% undecided. That’s closer than the Emerson poll found in March, when Trump led Biden, 43.9% to 41.2% with 14.9% undecided.
“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in the swing states.”
“Independent voters break for Trump over Biden in Arizona (48%-38%), Michigan
(44%-35%), Nevada (43%-37%), Pennsylvania (49%-33%), and North Carolina
(41%-38%). However, they break for Biden over Trump in Georgia (42%-38%) and
Wisconsin (44%-41%),” Kimball noted.
But when voters go to the polls in November, Trump and Biden probably won’t be the only choices. When other candidates are added to the mix, polling finds they cut into Biden’s support moreso than Trump’s.
In Nevada, Robert Kennedy Jr. takes 7.7% of the vote, Cornel West takes 1.6% and Jill Stein takes 0.9%. Undecideds remain about the same at 10.6%. The net effect reduces Biden’s support to 37.1% while Trump is at 42.1%. There’s a similar effect in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and North Carolina tilts even heavier toward Trump. Kennedy takes 8.5% of the vote in Arizona, but Trump’s lead stays about the same.
Kennedy (Independent), Stein (Green Party) and West (Independent) are in the process of petitioning, but they have not yet qualified for the Nevada ballot.
Undecided Nevada voters were asked who they were leaning toward, and Trump had a slight edge over Biden, 51.7% to 48.3%.
Hypothetical U.S. Senate matchups in Nevada show incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen leading Republican challenger Sam Brown 45.2% to 37.3% with 17.5% undecided, and Rosen over Republican Jeff Gunter 46.8% to 32.7% with 20.5% undecided. Brown, Gunter and several other Republicans will compete in the Republican primary in June.
The economy remains the overriding issue among Nevada voters. The top issues as of polling (April 25-29):
Economy (jobs, inflation, taxes): 32.7%
Housing affordability: 14.4%
Immigration: 13.3%
Education: 12.0%
Health care: 7.4%
Threats to democracy: 6.6%
Crime: 4.8%
Abortion access: 4.7%
Something else: 4.1%
The poll also delved into potential reactions to possible outcomes of the criminal trial in New York involving charges that Donald Trump falsified business records to disguise a hush-money payment.
Nevada voters’ responses: 51.3% said the trial is appropriate to hold Trump accountable, 40.1% said the trial is a witch hunt, and 8.6% were unsure.
A separate question tried to measure the impact a guilty verdict could have on support for Trump:
In Nevada, 32.3% said they would be less likely to support him if he’s found guilty, 33.2% said they would be more likely to support him, and 34.5% said it didn’t matter.
Nevada voters gave Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo a 39.8% approval rating, with 30.7% disapproving and 29.5% neutral.
That’s fairly positive compared to Nevadans’ evaluation of President Biden: 38.1% approval, 51.8% disapproval, 10.1% neutral.
The polling sample in each state included 1,000 registered voters. Data was weighted to approximate each state’s population parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education and voter registration and turnout. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.
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