Morning Consult released its final pre–Election Day tracking polls early Monday, and they had mostly good news for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. According to the polls, Biden is above 50 percent in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and is narrowly ahead of President Trump — but within the margin of error — in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, plus tied in Texas. If — and this is a big if — Biden wins just the states where he is outside the margin of error, he will almost certainly be the next president.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2020
Nationally, Biden leads Trump by 8 percentage points, 51.9 percent to 43.9 percent, and Democrats have a 7-point edge in the generic congressional ballot, Morning Consult found. The pollster also found the Democratic Senate candidates leading in Colorado, Michigan, and North Carolina, the GOP candidate leading in Alabama, Kentucky, and Texas, and the races in Arizona, Georgia, and South Carolina within the margin of error.
Morning Consult's national results are from surveys conducted among 14,663 likely voters Oct. 29- 31, and the margin of error is ± 1 percentage points. The state-level polling was conducted Oct. 22-31 between 727 to 4,451 likely voters in each state, and the margin of error is between ± 2 points to ± 4 points.