Biden enters his spring of (potential) unrest

The White House is staring down a spring of unrest, with Democrats growing ever fearful that the tensions flaring on college campuses could spiral into political poison for the president.

Pro-Palestinian protests have spread at universities across the country, leading to increasingly sharp confrontations between local law enforcement, students and fellow demonstrators. Inside the White House, aides are preparing for the likelihood that President Joe Biden will be on the receiving end of the demonstrations himself when he delivers two commencement addresses in the weeks ahead. There’s also fear that the situation could worsen if the White House fails to secure a cease-fire deal in Gaza, where more than 34,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s war with Hamas.

“The campus scenes leading the news right now are a challenge for the White House. The Republican message is that things are out of control and Biden is not in command. Anything that reads as disorder abets that message — which is why Trump and Republicans are eagerly exploiting and inflaming the situation,” said David Axelrod, a former senior strategist for Barack Obama, who added that there’s still an “eternity” between now and November, with the possibility that the tension lifts.

Biden has spoken out against antisemitism on college campuses, and the White House has condemned individual student protest leaders for specific remarks, as well as for taking over and blocking college properties. But the president has not often publicly addressed the matter, with statements usually issued from his aides.

Some Democrats harbor doubts about whether there is a plausible path to wade through this thicket and whether the president has the capacity to manage the discontent underlying the protests. They note that any forceful condemnation of the demonstrations risks further alienating those who see U.S. support for Israel’s war against Hamas as deeply problematic.

“[The president] doesn’t have a magic wand, but he has to give a sense of, what are his values? Because that’s where I worry that he’s going to start losing people more,” said Faiz Shakir, an adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and executive director of the labor-focused nonprofit media organization More Perfect Union. “If [voters] start to feel that you’re not the better of the two options, you’re just the same as two options, that’s not a good place to be living in.”

The biggest test for Biden could come in the weeks ahead. With colleges set to head to summer break, there is an expectation that the campus protests may soon crescendo. The president’s team, meanwhile, has prepped Biden for disruptions during his graduation speeches at Morehouse College and West Point, though they feel confident in their ability to navigate them considering the routine disruptions that the president faces now on the trail.

But the larger concerns may simply be the collective optics. Donald Trump and Republicans have seized on the moment to depict the country as mired in chaos, linking it to what they perceive as unrest on the southern border, out-of-control inflation and a world engulfed in wars.

And the fears among Democrats that the summer convention in Chicago could provide fodder for the opposition are growing.

“Do I think there’s going to be a repeat of 1968? No. But the disruptions could be embarrassing for the president, no question,” said Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.). “A number of the delegates might actually cause disruption so there’s only so much you can do to prevent it.”

What happens next will be largely determined by the White House’s ability to successfully broker a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, which would include the release of the remaining hostages, allow for a flood of aid to reach Gaza and potentially prevent an Israeli offensive in Rafah. White House officials see such a deal as a crucial step in simmering the growing pro-Palestianian protests in the U.S.

But a breakthrough has also proved maddeningly elusive. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu complicated matters on Tuesday, when he vowed to invade Rafah — where more than 1 million Palestinians are sheltering — with or without a deal. His comments came before Secretary of State Antony Blinken touched down in Israel to take part in the truce talks, which appear to be the most serious round of negotiations since the Oct. 7 attack.

Even if a deal comes to fruition this week, no one expects a cease-fire to fully resolve the domestic political pressure facing the president. White House aides expect disruptions at Biden’s graduation speeches in Atlanta on May 19, and then again in West Point the following weekend.

The intensity of news coverage complicates the image for the president, but officials believe he has a grasp on his response to such disruptions by openly acknowledging the seriousness of the issue and the feelings of the protesters. Biden, aides say, has been able to show an empathy in those moments and had not lost his cool when interrupted.

“He has done a really good job of engaging protesters on the campaign trail, saying that he is working towards a cease-fire, and he’s working for increased humanitarian aid. And he always says this, too: ‘You have a right to peacefully protest,’” said Kate Berner, former principal communications director at the White House and 2020 campaign official. “So I think this is something they will handle the same way they’ve prepared for other speeches recently.”

Republicans have pointed to the protests as examples of a country out of control, with several elected GOP officials paying visits to Columbia University. Former President Donald Trump has accused Biden and the Democratic Party of being unable to halt lawlessness — a tactic has used in the past — which Republicans believe could turn off swing voters.

In response, Biden aides point to the 2020 elections, when Republicans sought to cast him as the “defund the police” candidate amid the George Floyd protests. Biden tried to strike a balance between supporting the right to protest and condemning violence and the destruction of property, a message he’s trying to mirror in his approach to the campus protests, aides noted.

“While Donald Trump stood proudly with white supremacists and encouraged violent crackdowns on peaceful demonstrators, Joe Biden defends our First Amendment and strengthened protections against antisemitism and Islamophobia,” said Biden campaign senior spokesperson Lauren Hitt.

But the situation is different from 2020 in clear and obvious ways: chief among them that Biden is now president, and the social tension (while less omnipresent than in 2020) is taking place under his watch.

Biden officials have brushed off concerns about campus protests swelling into a broader threat to the president’s reelection bid. They see the protesters as a small slice of the electorate, and note that issues such as the economy rank of greater concern for young voters. In the latest Harvard Youth Poll, 8 percent of respondents said foreign policy and national security issues was their top concern, with just 2 percent saying Gaza was the issue that concerned them the most.

But the polling data hasn’t been able to quell some concerns on the left about what the increasing intensity of protests could mean for youth voter turnout come November.

“We have to work on ensuring that young people vote,” said Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), who previously taught at two college campuses in California. “And I think the president's aware of that, and I think that he's made statements both uplifting the right of free speech, but also, nobody wants to see violence, nobody wants to see vandalism on buildings.”

Shakir, for his part, warned that the president’s messaging on this issue isn’t resonating with young people, who he said often respond more to a value-driven explanation than a pragmatic policy approach.

“You’re going to at some point have to show the strength of conviction that you have. I think the marks of strong leaders in moments of difficulty, they tell you, ‘here’s the path that I believe in.’ Then persuade and sell it,” Shakir said. “Give it your best shot. Explain to people where you’re coming from and why. Because at this point, I think people are having to fill in the blanks. What are President Biden’s values in this moment?”

Jonathan Lemire contributed to this report.