Will Beto O’Rourke’s run for Texas governor help Tarrant County candidates on the ballot?

“As Tarrant County goes, so goes the state.”

The comment was made by Beto O’Rourke in 2018 during his Democratic bid against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, a Republican and one of the biggest names in Texas politics. O’Rourke started that election as a lesser-known congressman from El Paso, but drew national attention as he traveled to each of Texas’ counties, often live-streaming his travels. His promises of a grassroots campaign caught fire, but his remarks about Tarrant County didn’t hold true.

O’Rourke won historically red Tarrant County by 4,300 votes — less than a percentage point — but he didn’t win Texas.

On the heels of a run that that contributed to down-ballot Democrat wins, O’Rourke launched a presidential run that ultimately fizzled.

O’Rourke’s recent announcement that he’s running for governor raises the questions: Could he win Tarrant County again and what’s in store for down-ballot candidates with his name potentially on the November ballot?

“The key is the atmosphere next November, and it’s hard to project what that would be,” said TCU political science professor Jim Riddlesperger. “But certainly the political climate right now doesn’t appear to be favorable for Democrats nationally or within the state of Texas. And, of course, the history of midterm elections is that the president’s party does not do well.”

Those ideas lend credibility to the notion that it’ll be a difficult election for O’Rourke, Riddlesperger said.

“Not impossible, but certainly very difficult,” he said.

Revisiting Tarrant County, 2018

With O’Rourke on the ballot in 2018, Tarrant County Democrats saw some wins.

Democrat Beverly Powell beat Republican Incumbent Konni Burton in the race for Senate District 10, and Democrat Devan Allen unseated incumbent Andy Nguyen in a commissioner court race. At the time, the victories were attributed partially to a “Beto effect” and partially to Tarrant County’s changing demographics.

That year, Democrats also gained 12 seats in the Texas Legislature, including several in North Texas. But in 2020, Democrats failed to flip five House seats they targeted in Tarrant County.

Tarrant County is trending Democratic, as are other urban areas, Riddlesperger said. The population is also diversifying.

“I mean, Tarrant County is the least Democratic urban area in the state of Texas,” he said. “Houston and San Antonio and Austin and Dallas and El Paso were all very Democratic leaning obviously. And the fact that Tarrant County has kind of lagged in that regard does not mean that it’s immune those overall urbanization trends.

O’Rourke told the Star-Telegram his strategy for historicall Republicans areas, like Tarrant County, is to “go everywhere.” He mentioned Cook, Denton, Collin, Tarrant, Dallas and Ellis counties. In the first 24 hours of O’Rourke’s bid he raised more than $2 million, according to his campaign.

“Because you cannot be too red. You can’t be too blue. You can’t be too big city. You can’t be too rural for me to show up,” O’Rourke said. “Everyone in this state is important. Everyone in this state is going to contribute to the success of Texas.”

Soon after his Monday campaign announcement, O’Rourke announced a slate of stops across the state including in San Antonio, Laredo, Edinburg, McAllen, Brownsville, Corpus Christi, Houston, Dallas, De Leon and Abilene.

“The parts of Texas that have for so long been written off and not visited by statewide candidates, we’ve got to show up there and we’ve got to offer a compelling vision focused on the things that are most important to people,” O’Rourke said. “I think that’s how we won in Tarrant County in 2018.”

He’s also stressed staying focused on the “big things,” such as job creation in Texas, public education and expanding Medicaid.

“That’s I think the way we bring people together in this campaign,” O’Rourke said.

But Cruz is also a different opponent than Abbott.

“Abbott has been quite popular in the state of Texas,” Riddlesperger said. “He of course has taken a partisan turn in 2021 that is more strident than ... his partisanship had been previously, but he still has been a relatively popular governor of Texas. I mean, he certainly has annihilated his last two opponents in the gubernatorial elections.”

Beto O’Rourke 1.0 or 2.0?

President Joe Biden saw success in Tarrant County in 2020, but O’Rourke’s prospects in Tarrant are less promising when looking at the 2020 results. Rebecca Deen, an associate professor of political science at UT Arlington, pointed out that O’Rourke won the county with 49.9% of the votes. Two years later, Biden won but with 49.3%, she said.

“This, along with downward trends nationally for Democrats does not bode well for Beto in the governor’s race,” Deen said in an email to the Star-Telegram.

The first step for O’Rourke is getting through the Democratic primary. Michael Cooper, who previously ran for lieutenant governor, and educator Deirdre Gilbert said they are running for governor. The Texas Secretary of State’s Office didn’t list any candidates having officially filed as of noon Wednesday.

Riddlesperger didn’t envision O’Rourke’s name having much impact on down-ballot races in the primary, unless it’s competitive. Actor Matthew McConaughey would be a wild card were he to announce for governor, but it’s unclear what party he’d run in if at all.

O’Rourke could have some effect on local races further down the ballot in November, but the question is which version of O’Rourke voters will see during his gubernatorial bid, Riddlesperger said.

“Is this going to be the Beto version 1.0 or Beto version 2.0?” he said. “Because Beto version 1.0, the one that ran in 2018 was a populist candidate who really captured the imagination of many people in Texas and nationally, and raised an enormous amount of money and got national coverage. ... The candidate who ran for president was not nearly as successful. He didn’t capture that imagination. He at times looked over matched in his discussions of national politics, and he seemed to kind of frame himself in taking stances that would not win him votes.”

Get the first version, and O’Rourke could affect some down ballot races, Riddlesperger said.

But perceptions can be hard to change.

“Beto is better known today than when he ran against Sen. Cruz, which often translates into opinions that are more ‘baked in’ or harder to move,” Deen said.

Local parties looking ahead

Tarrant County GOP Chair Rick Barnes is confident O’Rourke won’t win Tarrant County. He pointed to Biden’s dwindling popularity in the state. Abbott’s campaign has also targeted O’Rourke, including comparing him to the president. On Wednesday the governor’s campaign announced that billboards calling O’Rourke and Biden “Wrong for Texas, Wrong for America” would appear in cities.

“The reality is that the Democrats have gone so far to the left with their positioning,” Barnes said. “The current president is not going to help any Democrat with where he’s going, particularly when you look at how their decisions are affecting the state.”

He described high gas prices and a “wide open southern border.” O’Rourke didn’t shy away from criticizing Biden’s handling of the Texas-Mexico border an interview with KTVT Channel 11.

Barnes also pushed back against the idea Tarrant County is trending purple, though there are pockets where Republicans are having to work harder, he said. Fort Worth is an example, and Barnes said they’ve added more precinct chairs and seen three new Republican clubs in the city.

Tarrant County Democratic Party Chair Allison Campolo thinks O’Rourke has a high chance of winning Tarrant County in a primary and general election.

“In Tarrant County, he took the county by a few thousand votes, and we’d really love to really increase those numbers, and not just increase those numbers, but make sure that Beto’s success really is seen more down ballot.”

Tarrant County has open seats for county judge and district attorney after Republicans Judge Glen Whitley and District Attorney Sharen Wilson announced they would not seek reelection. Both races, as well as some judicial seats, are focuses of the local party, Campolo said.

O’Rourke has done a good job of being accessible to voters in the past, which will help excite Tarrant County voters about his campaign and motivate them to get involved, she said.

“He has tons of pull,” Campolo said. “He is one of the biggest names in Democratic politics, easily, and he’s so likable. I do not think he’s damaged goods, despite what the Republicans want to say about him.”

But to Barnes, O’Rourke on the ballot would help Republicans down ballot. His stepping into the race will alert more Republicans to get to the polls to ensure he doesn’t win, Barnes said.

“I think he is an alarming candidate with beliefs on issues that are so anti-Texan, so anti-Tarrant County that it’s going to force people to look all the way down the ballot when they vote,” he said.

This article contains information from Star-Telegram archives.