So Bellingham’s population probably isn’t at 100,000 yet. What’s the actual number?

An estimate from the World Population Review saying that Bellingham’s population has grown to a six-digit number for the first time since its founding in 1902 made its way around Bellingham’s Reddit page early Monday. It was even reported on by a local media outlet. The WPR estimate, which placed the city at 101,422 residents, would’ve made Bellingham the ninth-biggest city in the state.

But while we were looking into the accuracy of this number and new milestone for the city, the website changed its estimate to 95,921.

So, what happened?

Did Bellingham really reach 100k?

World Population Review is a for-profit website run by web developer Shane Fulmer that tracks data on populations, life expectancy and birth rates across the globe. The website is vague about its methodology but often cites United Nations or U.S. Census Bureau data on individual pages.

It’s rated by Media Bias/Fact Check, a website that monitors the credibility of media outlets, as “mostly factual,” the third-highest grade that the site offers. The watchdog cited WPR’s “occasional use of poor sources” as the reason it didn’t receive a higher grade.

For more accurate population estimates, we went to Washington’s Office of Financial Management, which keeps detailed population estimates for each city in order to determine how the state’s budget is allocated. While 2024 estimates haven’t been published, OFM’s 2023 estimate has Bellingham’s population at 95,960.

Meanwhile, the 2020 U.S. Census had Bellingham’s population at 91,483, and estimated the city’s population to be 93,896 in 2022. However, the Census Bureau doesn’t publish annual population estimates for every city, so its most recent numbers are two years old.

What is Bellingham’s population now?

Mike Mohrman, a state demographer at the OFM, said that the 2024 estimates won’t be released until around June 29. But there are a few ways to get a better idea of Bellingham’s 2024 population before that date.

If we assume Bellingham’s growth rate is in the same ballpark as it was in 2023, around 2.2%, this year’s population would be right around 98,000.

Mohrman also said that the city had 1,250 housing units in progress last year. The vast majority of those buildings are multi-unit, which are completed within a year 42% of the time according to the U.S. Census Bureau, and just under 200 are single-unit, which are completed within a year 90% of the time. So there are likely around 600 new housing units, which would also place Bellingham closer to the 97,000 threshold, using the average U.S. household size of 2.5 people.

So Bellingham likely isn’t quite at 100,000. Of course, there’s a chance that when the state’s numbers come out in late June, they prove World Population Review’s original estimate was on to something. But chances are Bellingham is still a year or two away from being the newest member of the 100,000 club.