Beat writer Q&A: What's next for Illini men's basketball?

Mar. 26—Evaluating the 2022-23 Illinois basketball season is tricky. Do you focus on another 20-win campaign and a third straight NCAA tournament appearance? Or was the way it ended — seven losses in the final 11 games — more emblematic of a program that couldn't escape its flaws? Beat writer Scott Richey addresses 10 big-picture questions heading into the offseason for Brad Underwood's program:

1. Who stays?

Everybody? Nobody? That both options are on the table for programs across the country illustrates where college basketball is as a sport. Teams that stay together for multiple seasons are outliers these days.

Now, the latter is likely off the table for Illinois what with Sencire Harris and Luke Goode making announcements that they'll return next season. Nothing is guaranteed in this era of college basketball, but a change of heart from either at least seems unlikely given their prompt decision to run it back. But counting on a roster returning intact is now the exception in the transfer portal era. Every player on the Illinois roster save for Matthew Mayer has the eligibility to come back for the 2023-24 season. Most even might. But escaping roster churn completely would be a surprise.

2. Who goes?

Mayer is gone, out of eligibility. While he didn't help himself in the final weeks of Illinois' season — going 1 of 20 from three-point range in his last three games was brutal — there's a professional contract for him somewhere. Maybe even a two-way deal in the NBA/G-League.

Terrence Shannon Jr. did help himself in the NCAA tournament with his second-half takeover even in a loss to Arkansas. The Illinois guard should probably strike while the iron is hot, and there might not be that much more to show to NBA organizations for a guy who wouldn't start his pro career until he was 24 if he opts out of this year's draft. The midseason roster attrition with Skyy Clark and Zacharie Perrin bailing in January and February, respectively, might attenuate more changes. And it would behoove Brad Underwood to try and grasp that elusive idea of continuity if at all possible.

3. Is help on the way in the 2023 class?

Illinois' 2023 recruiting class ranks just inside the top 40 nationally and eighth in the Big Ten, per 247Sports, once the calculation to remove Perrin is completed. With Niccolo Moretti already on campus after enrolling in January, the Illini's class is really just Amani Hansberry and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn. The two went opposite directions in the recruiting rankings this winter — Hansberry up into the top 60 and Gibbs-Lawhorn down outside the top 100 — but both had successful senior seasons.

Hansberry essentially swept every player of the year award available in Maryland after leading Mount St. Joseph to another Baltimore Catholic League title. The 6-foot-8 forward averaged a double-double with 15.3 points and 12 rebounds and flashed his versatility by also handing out four assists per game. Underwood loves great passing big men, and Hansberry qualifies. If he builds on the flashes of three-point shooting he's shown, he could be a menace in the Big Ten.

Gibbs-Lawhorn bounced around again this season with a mid-year move from Montverde Academy (Fla.) to Word of God Academy in Overtime Elite. But he thrived in a league featuring multiple future pros. Gibbs-Lawhorn put up 20.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game in the regular season and was even more productive in the OTE playoffs. He's not a big guard at 6-1, but he's an dynamic athlete and could help on the playmaking front.

4. Who does Illinois go after in the transfer portal?

The starting place for this conversation is how many rather than who. Should every player that is eligible to return actually return in addition to the incoming freshmen, the Illini will have just a single open scholarship to work with this offseason. Underwood has expressed a desire the last couple years to keep at least one scholarship open for any potential midseason additions. The needs of the team, though, might tilt the scales in favor of an offseason portal acquisition.

Illinois has been linked to a number of players in the weeks since the transfer portal opened. From mid-major guards like Nick Timberlake, Jackson Paveletzke and John Tonje to former power conference players like Dontrez Styles, Jamison Battle, Primo Spears and Jaelyn Withers.

There are specific needs, though. A shooter should be at the top of the list. Illinois just wrapped up its third worst three-point shooting season since the shot was introduced. Poor shooters need not apply. Landing a veteran point guard that can double as a shooter would be ideal. The Illini were just as desperate for someone who could initiate offense as they were for someone to make shots. If open scholarships are limited, a two-birds-with-one-stone scenario makes a lot of sense. Another frontcourt piece wouldn't hurt — especially if Coleman Hawkins turns pro.

5. How soon do Shannon and Hawkins have to make decisions about the NBA?

There are a couple of key deadlines to know. Players have until end of day April 23 to declare for the NBA draft. A select group will then be invited to compete in either the G League Elite Camp on May 13-14 or NBA draft combine from May 15-21 in Chicago. The deadline for the pre-draft process for early entrants intent on maintaining their eligibility arrives at the end of day on May 31 with the NCAA-mandated withdrawal deadline.

6. How will roster construction differ in 2023 versus 2022?

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It might not. Illinois could run back mostly the same group in 2023-24 that it did this past season. In that scenario, the Illini are banking on a year of experience — plus a full offseason — being enough to spark the development of its young players. That it would be enough to address what became glaring issues as the season wound down to what seemed like its inevitable conclusion.

Illinois would need Jayden Epps to find the balance between scoring and facilitating. (Someone has to run the offense). The same way Illinois would need Dain Dainja to refine his skills in the post. Or Ty Rodgers to refine his jumpshot to round out what's otherwise an all-around solid skill set.

And if roster construction is different? A point guard has to be at the top of the list. The inability to effectively run offense isn't the only aspect that hamstrung the Illini late in the season — their defense lost its edge — but it was still a major problem.

7. What is Luke Goode's potential if he can have a fully healthy season?

High. Goode is exactly what Illinois was missing for most of the 2022-23 season. The Illini's offensive issues screamed for a capable catch-and-shoot option on the wing. That's Goode. The Fort Wayne, Ind., native made 8 of 19 three-pointers (42 percent) in the 10 games he did play after October foot surgery cost him most of his sophomore year, and they were almost exclusively catch-and-shoot opportunities. Just like Alfonso Plummer and Jacob Grandison had a year prior.

Without Goode, there wasn't that guy on the perimeter waiting for a kickout after the defense collapsed on a dribble drive or post entry. Not that there were a lot of those opportunities. Illinois leaned into isolation offense this season, with Shannon and Mayer, and wound up ranked 10th in the Big Ten in assists per game, 248th in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio and 280th nationally in assist rate. The ball didn't move that well.

8. Who will be the leading scorer next season?

There's a scenario where this player isn't yet on the Illinois roster. Just like this past season where Shannon became that guy — and was recruited out of the portal to be that guy. It might even be him again in 2023-24 if the name, image and likeness package the Illini can cobble together is enough to sway him from the NBA, where he has at least a chance at a guaranteed deal. If it's not Shannon (or Hawkins)? If it's not a transfer to be named later? RJ Melendez still has that potential despite a sophomore season that was a borderline disaster offensively much of the year. The expectation this past season was for Melendez to make that typical sophomore leap. Shooting 26 percent from three-point range was not it. Melendez had his moments with his first career double-double against Minnesota and another strong showing in the NCAA tournament, but he'll have to up his level of consistency to make a junior year breakthrough.

9. What's Underwood's contract situation like?

Contract extensions the last three years have kept Underwood on what's essentially a six-year deal. The 2020 extension tacked on three more seasons to his original deal, with the subsequent extensions adding an additional year to keep the Illinois coach in Champaign through the 2027-28 season.

It's a revised deal that has made Underwood one of the highest paid coaches in the sport. He checks in at No. 7 at $4.6 million — right between NCAA championship winning coach Tony Bennett and his former boss Bob Huggins — and with escalators that will push his salary past $5 million by the final contracted year.

Underwood's previous two extensions both came in late March after abrupt exits in the NCAA tournament. Will he get another one in the next week for hitting what's been the standard 20-win season and NCAA tournament appearance?

10. What's the early read on the Big Ten next season?

You're guess is as good as mine. This isn't like the old days of college basketball where everyone basically knew a team's makeup for the next season as soon as the previous season ended. Between players leaving for the draft or other pro opportunities and the portal, projections right now for next season are purely guesses.

Penn State should bottom out again after Micah Shrewsberry bailed for Notre Dame. The Nittany Lions peaked, and Shrewsberry got going while the going was still good.

Most teams simply have too many question marks as players decide what's next. Purdue could be just as good (at least in the regular season) if Zach Edey comes back. Ohio State, even without likely first-round pick Brice Sensabaugh, should be better with a young, experienced core buoyed by another strong recruiting class. Michigan State and Maryland have strong 2023 classes on the way, too.

Whoever can manage the most continuity, though, might climb to the top of the Big Ten standings. It still matters.