Battle for the House: These Are the Races to Watch
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
Control of the U.S. House of Representatives, at this point in the election cycle, is anybody’s guess.
Right now, the House is divided by just one or two votes, with Republicans clinging to the slimmest of majorities. The Democratic Party is similarly fighting to keep control of the Senate, where it has a one-seat majority.
At first glance, it may appear that House Democrats have the better chance of seizing the majority in 2025 than Republicans do. Republicans occupy 17 districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020, while Democrats hold just five districts won by former President Donald Trump.
Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times
But the general rule is, as goes the presidential race, so go House races, because partisanship and turnout can hold more sway than personal knowledge of the candidates. Here are the types of races to watch that could decide control of the House.
Incumbent Republicans in districts won by Biden: Reliably blue states
California is a key battleground in the fight for the House majority in 2024. Even if the presidential race is not competitive, the race for an open Senate seat could juice turnout. Here, Democrats see a number of prime pickup opportunities in the form of Republicans who hold seats in districts that Biden swept, in some cases by double digits, in the last presidential election. However, some of these same districts swung toward Republicans in the 2022 midterms, illustrating the tossup nature of many of these areas.
Greater New York is the other battlefield that will determine House control. Again, the presidential race may not be competitive, and in 2022, Republicans proved better at mobilizing voters than Democrats did. But newly redrawn districts shifted some seats slightly toward Democrats, especially the 22nd.
California’s 27th District
Republican Mike Garcia vs. Democrat George Whitesides
Biden +12 in 2020
Republican +6 in 2022
Garcia has become the ultimate escape artist against Democrats in this district across northern Los Angeles County. He won the seat in a special election in May 2020 against Christy Smith, a Democrat and a former one-term state Assembly member, after another Democrat, Katie Hill, resigned after a sex scandal. He beat Smith again that November, by 333 votes, and then beat her a third time in 2022 by a more comfortable margin, even though redistricting had lopped off part of his stronghold in Simi Valley. This time around, he will have to best a very different Democrat, Whitesides, an aerospace engineer and business executive, in a presidential election year.
California’s 13th District
Republican John Duarte vs. Democrat Adam Gray
Biden +11
Republican +0.4 in 2022
California’s 22nd District
Republican David Valadao vs. Democrat Rudy Salas
Biden +13
Republican +3 in 2022
California’s 45th District
Republican Michelle Steel vs. Democrat Derek Tran
Biden +6
Republican +5 in 2022
California’s 40th District
Republican Young Kim vs. Democrat Joe Kerr
Biden +1
Republican +14 in 2022
New York’s 1st District
Republican Nick LaLota vs. the winner of the Democratic primary on June 25
Biden +0.2
Republican +11 in 2022
Of all the hot races in greater New York, the one considered just out of the Democrats’ reach is on Long Island, but John Avlon, a former on-air personality at CNN, is hoping to put this sleeper race on the map.
New York’s 22nd District
Republican Brandon Williams vs. the winner of the Democratic primary on June 25
Biden +12
Republican +1 in 2022
New York’s 4th District
Republican Anthony D’Esposito vs. the winner of the Democratic primary on June 25
Biden +15
Republican +4 in 2022
New York’s 17th District
Republican Mike Lawler vs. the winner of the Democratic primary on June 25
Biden +10
Republican +0.6 in 2022
New York’s 19th District
Republican Marc Molinaro vs. the winner of the Democratic primary on June 25
Biden +4
Republican +1.6 in 2022
New Jersey’s 7th District
Republican Tom Kean Jr. vs. Democrat Susan Altman
Biden +4
Republican +3 in 2022
Oregon’s 5th District
Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer vs. the winner of the Democratic primary on May 21
Biden +9
Republican +2 in 2022
Democratic voters in 2022 sided with a progressive insurgent, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, over the seven-term moderate incumbent, Kurt Schrader, in the Democratic primary, only to see her lose to a Republican in the general election — one of the very few seats to flip Republican in the midterms.
Democrats in Washington are trying to prevent a repeat disappointment, backing a veteran legislator, Janelle Bynum, but McLeod-Skinner is still in the running. The winner of that matchup will compete against the Republican incumbent, Chavez-DeRemer, who does not have Republican opposition in her primary.
——
Incumbent Republicans in districts won by Biden: Swingy western districts and presidential battlegrounds
A handful of other Biden districts in the West and elsewhere around the country are currently represented by Republicans — making for more ripe targets. In some cases, Biden won these areas only narrowly in 2020.
Arizona’s 1st District
Republican David Schweikert vs. the winner of the Democratic primary on July 30
Biden +1.5
Republican +0.9 in 2022
Arizona’s 6th District
Republican Juan Ciscomani vs. the winner of the Democratic primary on July 30
Biden +0.1
Republican +1.5 in 2022
Nebraska’s 2nd District
The winner of the Republican primary on May 14 vs. Democrat Tony Vargas
Biden +6
Republican +3 in 2022
Rep. Don Bacon, a Republican and the incumbent, is a perennial Democratic target in this swing district around Omaha. Vargas, a state senator, came within 2.6 percentage points in 2022, and is running unopposed in the Democratic primary. This time, Bacon’s fight to keep his seat is complicated by a challenger to his right in the Republican primary, which will be held May 14. Dan Frei has the endorsement of the state Republican Party, and could upend years of Bacon’s carefully cultivated image as a moderate conciliator as he battles to appeal to the GOP base. When Biden won this district in 2020, he was awarded one Electoral College vote, despite Trump’s winning the rest of the state. That’s because Nebraska allocates its electoral votes by congressional district, rather than through a “winner take all” system.
Pennsylvania’s 1st District
Republican Brian Fitzpatrick vs. Democrat Ashley Ehasz
Biden +5
Republican +10 in 2022
Virginia 2nd District
Republican Jen Kiggans vs. the winner of the Democratic primary on June 18
Biden +2
Republican +3 in 2022
——
Incumbent Democrats in districts won by Trump: All over the map
The five Trump districts held by House Democrats stretch from Alaska to Maine, following no geographic pattern. They are all top targets as Republicans try to expand their majority.
Ohio’s 9th District
Democrat Marcy Kaptur vs. Republican Derek Merrin
Trump +3
Democrat +13 in 2022
Kaptur is a survivor, the longest-serving female member of Congress who achieved that milestone this year only by winning reelection in 2022 in a district purposely drawn by Republicans to beat her. That feat proved easier than expected, in large part because Republicans nominated J.R. Majewski, an inexperienced Trump acolyte most known for padding his military resume and turning his lawn into a giant mural of the former president. This time, Republicans pressured Majewski out of the race and nominated a youthful committee chair from the Ohio House who began his political career at 19 on the Waterville City Council, outside Toledo. He was mayor at 21.
Maine’s 2nd District
Democrat Jared Golden vs. the winner of the Republican primary on June 11
Trump +6
Democrat +6 in 2022
Pennsylvania’s 8th District
Democrat Matt Cartwright vs. Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr.
Trump +3
Democrat +2 in 2022
Washington’s 3rd District
The top two finishers from the nonpartisan primary on Aug. 6, which pits Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a freshman Democrat, against three Republicans and a Democrat, will go on to compete in the general election
Trump +4
Democrat +0.8 in 2022
Alaska’s at-large congressional district
The top four finishers from a nonpartisan primary on Aug. 20, which pits Mary Peltola, the incumbent and a Democrat, against two Republicans, will go on to compete in the general election
Trump +10
Democrat +10 in 2022
——
Open seats and freshman Democrats: Tough terrain
North Carolina’s 1st District
Incumbent Democrat Don Davis vs. Republican Laurie Buckhout
Biden +1.7
Democrat +5 in 2022
The Republican gerrymandering of North Carolina House districts was a huge setback for Democrats, taking an evenly split, seven-to-seven House delegation in a closely divided state and locking in 10 Republican seats. Just one competitive district is left, and Davis will have to defend it against Washington Republicans’ chosen candidate, a retired Army colonel with a Bronze Star.
Colorado’s 8th District
Incumbent Democrat Yadira Caraveo vs. the winner of the Republican primary on June 25
Biden +4.6
Democrat +0.7 in 2022
Michigan’s 7th District
Open Democratic seat, Democrat Curtis Hertel vs. Republican Tom Barrett
Biden +0.5
Democrat +5 in 2022
Michigan’s 8th District
Open Democratic seat that will pit the winners of the Democratic and Republican primaries on Aug. 6 against each other
Biden +2
Democrat +10 in 2022
New Mexico’s 2nd District
Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez vs. Republican Yvette Herrell
Biden +5.9
Democrat +0.7 in 2022
Ohio’s 13th District
Incumbent Democrat Emilia Sykes vs. Republican Kevin Coughlin
Biden +2.8
Democrat +5 in 2022
Pennsylvania’s 7th District
Incumbent Democrat Susan Wild vs. the winner of the Republican primary on April 23
Biden +0.6
Democrat +2 in 2022
——-
Wild Cards
A change in the overall political mood could move some of these races into tossup territory. Here are a few to keep an eye on:
Virginia’s 7th District
The decision of Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, to run for governor turns her Democratic-leaning seat into a free-for-all. Seven Democrats have declared for the primary on June 18, including Eugene Vindman, the twin brother of Alexander Vindman, the military officer on the National Security Council who blew the whistle on Trump’s efforts to press Ukraine’s leader into announcing an investigation of Biden. Eight Republicans are running.
Biden +6.8
Democrat +5 in 2022
Nevada’s 3rd District
Nevada’s three Democratic House members proved their resilience in 2022 when all were reelected in a year when Republicans recaptured the state’s governorship. In 2024, the state is a presidential and Senate battleground. Rep. Susie Lee may have the toughest district to defend against the winner of the Republican primary on June 11.
Biden +6.6
Democrat +4 in 2022
Pennsylvania’s 10th District
Rep. Scott Perry, a Republican leader of the House Freedom Caucus, has never moderated his conservative politics to match his swing district, even after the committee that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol excoriated him for his role in trying to overturn the election. This year, a well-known personality, Pennsylvania newscaster Janelle Stelson, has chosen to run as a Democrat and raise Jan. 6 as her main cause. First, she needs to get through the primary on April 23.
Trump +4.1
Republican +8 in 2022
Colorado’s 3rd District
In 2022, Adam Frisch, a Democrat, startled many people, including his opponent, Rep. Lauren Boebert, when he came within 546 votes of defeating her. He was seeking a rematch in this vast district that stretches from the western slopes of the Rockies through most of southern Colorado, but Boebert, a conservative firebrand with a flare for grabbing attention, bowed out and moved to run in a district in the eastern part of the state. Prevailing this time against the winner of the 10-candidate Republican primary on June 25 will be even harder for Frisch. But from his days as Boebert’s nemesis, he has raised a staggering $10.8 million.
Trump +8.3
Republican +0.2 in 2022
New York’s 3rd District
George Santos put this Long Island district on the map with his fraudulent resume, congressional histrionics and remarkable ouster from the House. A solid victory by Tom Suozzi, a Democrat, in a special election to replace Santos has convinced many handicappers that the seat will remain in his hands this November. But Republicans won it in 2022 with Santos, and eight of them have lined up ahead of the primary on June 25 to try to take it back.
Biden +11.3
Republican +8 in 2022
A New York Times News Service article about the upcoming elections in the U.S. House of Representatives described incorrectly Alaska’s ranked choice voting system. The top four finishers from a nonpartisan primary on Aug. 20 will go on to compete in the general election, not the top two finishers.
c.2024 The New York Times Company
