In Barnburner Wisconsin Supreme Court Race, Democrats Will Look To Flex Recent Off-Year Strength

In the post-Dobbs era, we’ve witnessed an old political truism be turned on its head: that Republicans dominate special elections.

Since the right-wing Supreme Court overturned Roe and upended our politics, Democrats have performed four percentage points better than Joe Biden’s 2020 results, according to data from the Daily Kos.

These highly-engaged, politically tuned-in voters just keep showing up in off-cycle elections that are much more about turnout than they are persuasion. They’re the same ones that helped Democrat Janet Protasiewicz smoke Republican Dan Kelly by over 10 points in a very expensive, high-profile battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court majority in 2023. And those voters are already seeing results, as the court has knocked down the state’s gerrymandered maps, breaking Republicans’ manufactured and anti-democratic dominance of the statehouse.

On Thursday, liberal Wisconsin Justice Ann Walsh Bradley announced that she would not seek reelection, setting up another barnburner for April 2025.

“My decision has not come lightly. It is made after careful consideration and reflection,” she said in a statement. “I know I can do the job and do it well. I know I can win reelection, should I run. But, it’s just time to pass the torch, bringing fresh perspectives to the court.”

That race will be just as existential as Protasiewicz’s. The court is expected to take up cases that will determine the future of abortion access in the state, though they may take them up while Bradley is still on the court. Still, it’ll likely be a main theme of the 2025 race: Brad Schimel, a former state attorney general who is already running, opposes abortion rights. Such a platform would let Democrats bundle their special election juice with the issue that has bolstered turnout unlike any other.

From abortion to voting rights to, well, keeping Donald Trump from stealing elections, the importance of state Supreme Courts, particularly in swing states, has come into sharp focus in the recent political era. Democrats will bank on their new off-year strength holding steady as they look to secure their control of the court. If they win next year, they can take a breath — conservatives will be defending seats on the court in 2026 and 2027, locking them out of the majority until at least 2028.

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