Arkansas Storm Team Weather Blog: 2024 Hurricane Season Forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has put out their 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast and it’s expected to be historic.
NOAA says there is an 85% chance that this hurricane season is more active than average. During an average Atlantic hurricane season, there are 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
A named storm is a tropical storm and it has to have sustained winds over 39 mph. A hurricane is a storm with sustained winds over 75 mph and a major hurricane has sustained winds over 111 mph. Major hurricanes are rated category 3, 4, or 5.
NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season forecast calls for 17-25 total named storms. With 5 to 9 of those reaching hurricane status, and 4 to 7 of them reaching major hurricane status.
This is a historic forecast because if we reach the high end of the forecast and have 25 named storms it would be the 3rd most active Atlantic hurricane season on record!
According to NOAA, this season is expected to be extremely active because of the near-record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, along with the formation of La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. When the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in its cold phase it is called La Nina, and this will reduce the wind shear over the Atlantic. Low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures are what hurricanes need to form.
Here is a list of the names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
You might notice there are only 21 names in this list, and the forecast is for as many as 25 named storms. This means that we will likely have to dip into the secondary list of names. A secondary name list was created after 2020 when we had 30 named storms. In 2020 each storm beyond 21 was named after letters in the Greek Alphabet.
This season is expected to be even busier than last year. Last year we were in a weak El Nino and normally this would lead to a less active Atlantic hurricane season, but we ended up with 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Overall, an active hurricane season doesn’t have a huge impact on our weather in Arkansas. If we do see a storm make it up here it could bring the risk of flash flooding and spin-up tornadoes. July, August, and September are our driest months, and remnants from a hurricane can prevent the late summer drought conditions that we typically see.
If you plan on heading to the beach this summer or fall it would be a good idea to check the forecast before going south.
If you have weather-related topics that you would like me to write about, email me at alibby@kark.com!
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