Arizona's 1864 abortion ban is sent packing. Can Republicans avoid the same fate?

Five pro-life defectors completed their roll over their fellow Republicans on Wednesday, voting with Democrats to repeal Arizona’s 1864 near total ban on abortion and setting the stage for a knock-down, drag-out election in a key battleground state.

How it plays all out in November? That’s anybody’s guess.

Republicans will have to scramble to undo the damage of the last month, having shown Arizona voters their preference for 19th century life — for women, at least.

But had that 160-year-old law remained in effect, skip shades of purple. Arizona would have gone full-on blue.

And abortion would have become a constitutional right, guaranteed until the point of viability and beyond in certain circumstances.

GOP let out their anger, grief over abortion

Now, at least, Republicans have a small chance to head off the Arizona Abortion Access Act.

I just have no earthly idea how they will do it, given their clear message over the last month that on this issue there can be no compromise.

“They got it right in 1864,” Republican Sen. Wendy Rogers, allegedly of Flagstaff, said on Wednesday on the Senate floor, her voice edging toward a shout. “We need to continue to get it right in 2024.”

Rogers wasn’t alone in her anger and grief over the loss of the law that criminalized abortion except to save the life of a dying woman — the one that was revived just a month ago by the Arizona Supreme Court.

On Wednesday, there were tears and Biblical exhortations, graphic descriptions of abortion and angry pleas for unity by pro-life Republicans, who hold a sincere belief that life begins at conception but only a one-vote majority in Senate.

One senator incredibly warned that repealing the 19th century abortion law is a step toward legalizing sex with children.

“We as Republicans gave up on the marriage issue,” warned Sen. Anthony Kern, R-Glendale. “Now we are being asked to give up on the life issue, and I guarantee you it’ll be the pedophilia issue next.”

One considerably less hysterical senator played audio of his daughter’s in-utero heartbeat.

“When there’s a beating heart, I think that matters,” Sen. J.D. Mesnard, R-Chandler, said quietly.

Shope remained silent, Bolick spoke at length

What there wasn’t on Wednesday were any changed minds.

There is, after all, a political calculation to be made.

If this 1864 law had remained, Republicans were looking at a state where abortion was certain to become a constitutional right and Democrats were the odds-on favorite to take control of the Legislature. This, after already having captured all key state offices and both U.S. Senate seats in recent elections.

In the end, Republican Sens. T.J. Shope and Shawnna Bolick joined with Democrats to repeal the abortion ban, as did Republican Reps. Matt Gress, Tim Dunn and Justin Wilmeth in the House last week.

Four of the five face competitive legislative races this fall.

Just when you thought: The AZ GOP couldn't get any crazier

Shope was wisely silent on Wednesday.

Bolick, however, gave a 21-minute floor speech that sounded more like a self-eulogy than an explanation of her vote. She covered her three difficult pregnancies, the joy of motherhood, the evils of Planned Parenthood and something about coaching a baseball team.

What she never explained — at least not in any believable fashion — was how a woman so staunchly pro-life could vote to allow abortion.

GOP won't thank them for saving the party

Bolick couched it as a vote to head off the abortion initiative headed for the November ballot, and she has a point. Repeal of the ban means abortion will be legal until 15 weeks.

Polls show that most Arizona voters support abortion, though only to a point.

“I am here to protect more babies,” she said.

Only nobody was buying it. This is Bolick, after all, a politician not exactly known for flexibility when it comes to the fine art of compromise.

“Make no mistake to everybody watching this and hearing my voice right now … ,” said a furious Sen. Jake Hoffman, R-Queen Creek. “She voted for abortion. She voted for 95 percent of all abortions continuing to exist.”

OK, so I think we can safely say that Hoffman won't be hitting the campaign trail to help her this fall, as she faces Democratic Rep. Judy Schwiebert in a competitive northwest Valley race.

Yet it’s clear that Bolick and her fellow defectors, in abandoning their pro-life stance, may have saved Republicans from themselves.

If, in fact, they can be saved this year.

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on X, formerly Twitter, at @LaurieRoberts or on Threads at laurierobertsaz.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: 5 Arizona abortion law defectors may have saved the GOP from itself