Ari Melber Previews What's at Stake in Donald Trump's Hush Money Trial — and How He'll Defend Himself (Exclusive)

The MSNBC host and chief legal correspondent gives PEOPLE a rundown of what to expect in Trump's historic Manhattan criminal trial as jury selection begins

With Donald Trump's Manhattan hush money trial beginning more than a year after his 34-count indictment dropped, questions abound about how the first-ever criminal case against a former president will be received by jurors.

Legal and political analyst Ari Melber, who hosts MSNBC's The Beat on weeknights, has been following the case from day one, poring over the Manhattan district attorney's allegations and anticipating Trump's counterargument.

As jury selection gets underway, PEOPLE caught up with Melber to hear his thoughts on the state of the case and what we can expect to see in the next six to eight weeks that Trump is on trial. Below, his thoughts on what's at stake for the former president right now — and how the verdict could have a significant impact on the upcoming presidential election.

Related: Would You Make It onto Donald Trump’s Jury? Experts Identify the Ideal Juror — and What They’ll Be Asked

For the past year, critics of President Trump have been following updates in various criminal and civil cases and at each turn saying, "This is the thing that will bring him down." As it stands now, though, the former president remains popular among Republicans and has a very attainable path back to the White House. What is the significance of this moment, and does this trial pose any real threat to his campaign?

Donald Trump is the first former president to face a criminal trial, so this is literally unprecedented. That's true, even if people are understandably tired of that word! Legally, he is presumed innocent. Politically, most candidates are hurt by credible evidence of crime — let alone a conviction. Trump knows that. It's why he accused Clinton and Biden of “crimes,” corruption and "crooked" conduct as a political strategy.

But a real trial is a forum Trump can't control, with many people watching. A conviction could hurt him with voters beyond his base. The New York indictment alleges serious crimes to distort an election, lie to voters and hide his conduct. On the other hand, a mistrial or acquittal could help him — if it adds evidence to his claims that prosecutors have brought thin cases against him. It might even play like a “comeback.”

Related: The Biggest Bombshells from the Donald Trump Indictment, from Hush Money Payments to 'Friends in High Places'

What argument will prosecutors make against Trump in an effort to prove criminal behavior, and who can we expect to see on the witness stand?

New York prosecutors must prove this was an intentional, lying plot. The whole burden is on them — not the defendant. The district attorney’s prep suggests we could hear from Trump's convicted former lawyer, Michael Cohen; Stormy Daniels; and people who have worked for Trump, like Hope Hicks and convicted Trump CFO Allen Weisselberg. Witnesses matter and could be key to how the jury views the case.

Related: Everyone Who Might Testify in Donald Trump's Hush Money Trial, Which Begins April 15

The hush money indictment contained some strong evidence. What argument will Trump's legal team try to make in court?

Trump's team has two main defenses: They can argue prosecutors have totally overreached. The idea is that prosecutors stretched a law to “supersize” this into a big felony case, when there shouldn’t even be a trial.

Second, they can argue Trump was not fully in the loop. The defense is that even though the receipts do show some lies — the jury will see the evidence — that doesn’t mean Trump knew what was intended or done at the time. Consider this the “busy candidate/busy president” defense: lots going on, and maybe Trump didn’t know exactly what his aides did when they arranged payments through his lawyer during the campaign homestretch.

Related: Stormy Daniels Speaks Out After Trump Indictment amid Fears for Her Safety

It's hard to believe that we've finally reached a trial after so many delays and legal challenges. Now that jury selection is officially kicking off, is there any way Trump can still manage to escape a judgment before the election?

The New York trial is on track for April. That means it will end before the election. The ending could be a verdict — guilty or acquittal — or another result, like a mistrial. We can't predict the future. Once the trial starts, though, there will be a resolution long before the election.

This is unprecedented and high-stakes stuff. Two of Trump’s four cases involve indictments for crimes to distort or steal an American election; these are serious allegations, and it’s better to resolve them with evidence, fair rules and due process before Americans vote again.

For More Analysis...

Ari Melber will continue unpacking the hush money case during MSNBC's trial kickoff coverage from 6-8 p.m. ET on Monday, April 15.

During the two-hour special, titled "Trump on Trial: New York v. Donald Trump," Melber will be joined by fellow prime-time hosts Rachel Maddow, Joy Reid, Nicolle Wallace, Chris Hayes, Alex Wagner, Lawrence O’Donnell, Stephanie Ruhle and Jen Psaki.

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