Americans feel better about the economy. Is it an opening for Joe Biden to court voters?

Early in 2023, President Joe Biden repeatedly used the phrase “Bidenomics” to connect his name to the economic policies at the time. The term was mocked and fell on deaf ears as voters were not feeling any relief at the gas pump or grocery store.

It got so bad that Biden dropped the use of the phrase “Bidenomics” in November 2023 because it was triggering a backlash and giving people a reason not to vote for him.

But today’s Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll of registered voters shows a marked improvement on views of the economy, and Biden’s handlers may want to dust off the shelved term “Bidenomics” and put it to use once again.

Suffolk University and USA TODAY have conducted 10 national surveys since Biden was elected. In fact, less than two years ago, just 9% of respondents in a July 2022 national poll described the U.S. economy as being in “economic recovery.”

Today’s poll puts that figure at 33%, and that nearly quadruple increase was seen among all voters, with some demographics showing bigger gains than others. Democrats who said we are experiencing an “economic recovery” rose from 20% in 2022 to 64% today. But the increase in sentiment even moved Republicans - from 1% to 8% today.

So, who else moved? And which groups are feeling the most optimistic?

The poll, which was fielded after Biden’s State of the Union address Thursday night, saw a sizeable jump among older voters ages 65+ describing the economy as being in recovery, moving from 11% in 2022 to a significant 42% today.

They have seen their costs dropping and their retirement accounts rising dramatically due to new stock market highs. According to the poll, former President Donald Trump still leads Biden by a single point 44%-43%, slightly less than the 52%-47% Trump advantage among those ages 65+ from the 2020 exit polls.

Among self-described moderates (some of whom are moderate Democrats and elderly) there was a sizeable jump as well, from 8% to 41%. Moderates are the entry point to the most crucial voting bloc in a general election – independents. And among independents, there was a 19-point increase from 7% to 26%.

Not outstanding, but an improvement, nonetheless.

The good news for Biden is that 35% of independents now say the most important issue is the economy/inflation, while immigration and threats to democracy have dropped to 20% each. If independents continue to see the economy as improving and the economy/inflation remains the top issue, it could provide an opening for team Biden.

It won’t be an easy task, as independents don’t like Biden (63% view him unfavorably). They don’t like Trump either (56% unfavorable) but they rate his 2017-2020 term as much better (51% approve-44% disapprove) than Biden’s current term (32% approve-63% disapprove).

That’s why, among independents, Trump leads Biden by eight points, 32% to 24%, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. garnering 18%, independent Cornel West at 6%, a No Labels candidate at 4%, a Libertarian Party candidate and the Green Party's Jill Stein at 3% each, and 9% undecided.

This is a dramatic reversal of the 13-point lead Biden held among independents in the 2020 exit polls. The presence of so many third-party candidates thus far has impacted not only voter share but also future behavior: 40% of independents say they might change their minds, considerably higher than the overall poll, which shows that 25% might switch.

The one issue where independents break from the overall poll findings is the Russia-Ukraine war: independents oppose (48%-44%) sending additional military aid to Ukraine, while all voters nationally support it (53%-39%).

To further complicate matters, support for Ukraine splits among independent men and women. Among independent men, additional Ukraine aid is opposed 51%-43%, while independent women support it 52%-39%. This presents a dilemma for Biden and the Democrats pushing hard for additional aid to Ukraine, yet need to court independents.

Reaching these independents will be difficult. They tend not to tune in and don’t follow current news events day to day. A majority (51%) said they did not watch the State of the Union address; 68% don’t plan to follow Trump’s upcoming hush money trial; and 75% say the country is on the wrong track.

Perhaps the only way to reach these voters is at the grocery store or gas pump.

David Paleologos is the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Voters feel better about the economy as Biden seeks second term: Poll