ALCS preview: Astros vs. Red Sox might just be the real World Series

With apologies to whatever might happen in the National League and even the final week of October, the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox playing for the AL pennant might as well be the World Series.

That’s not to say, of course, the winner here gets an automatic pass to baseball’s ultimate trophy. It just means that this series between these two teams might be the best baseball we see all year.

The Red Sox, the team that won the most games in baseball, with the likely AL MVP, with one of the game’s top pitchers, with a World Series berth on the line — that’s sexy enough on its own. Then you add the Astros, the defending champs, with the reigning AL MVP, with another one of the game’s top pitchers, with a relentless lineup loaded with stars — yeah, now we’re talking.

The Red Sox got past the Yankees to land here, showing they were a stronger overall team and that their offense and starting pitching were enough to withstand their shaky bullpen. The Astros, meanwhile, dominated the Indians, proving Cleveland’s strong starting rotation was no match for their lineup and that they can explode for big innings against anybody.

The ALCS is rich with other storylines too. Red Sox rookie manager Alex Cora vs. the Astros team he was the bench coach for last season. Chris Sale vs. Justin Verlander in one of the best postseason Game 1 matchups you can imagine. The confidence of Alex Bregman vs. the confidence of Red Sox nation.

There’s a lot to be excited about and a lot to watch for — here’s our rundown of the series, including schedule, pitching matchups and keys to victory for each team.

Schedule

Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 13, in Boston, 8:09 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 14, in Boston, 7:09 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 16, in Houston, 5:09 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 17, in Houston, 8:39 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 5*: Thursday, Oct. 18, in Houston, 8:09 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 6*: Saturday, Oct. 20, in Boston, time TBD (TBS)
Game 7*: Sunday, Oct. 21, in Boston, 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS)
*If necessary

Previously in Red Sox vs. Astros in 2018

The Red Sox and Astros met seven times during the regular season, with Houston earning four victories to Boston’s three. Houston outscored Boston 34-31 during the season series, so they were basically even.

The teams split a four-game series in Houston from May 31-June 3, before Houston won two of three at Fenway Park in early September. Considering the Red Sox went 20-5-2 in home series this season, the Astros might get a slight edge for being among the few to win in Boston.

ALCS pitching matchups

Game 1: Justin Verlander (16-9, 2,52) vs. Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11)
Game 2: Gerrit Cole 15-5, 2.88) vs. David Price (16-7, 3.58)
Game 3: TBD vs. TBD
Game 4: TBD vs. TBD
Game 5*: TBD vs. TBD
Game 6*: TBD vs. TBD
Game 7*: TBD vs. TBD

Justin Verlander has been reborn since joining the Astros at last August’s trade deadline. The three-time Cy Young winner was the best pitcher in MLB down the stretch of the regular season and through the 2017 postseason. He followed that with his best season since 2012, posting a 2.52 ERA with a career-best 290 strikeouts.

The Astros have had the same effect on Gerrit Cole. For stretches this season Cole was arguably Houston’s best pitcher. After struggling with consistency in Pittsburgh, he had no such issues in 2018, posting a 2.88 ERA with an AL-leading 12.4 strikeout per nine. In fact, his 276 strikeouts were 74 more than this previous career high.

Amazingly, the Astros can follow that with another former Cy Young winner in Dallas Keuchel, a potential future winner in Lance McCullers Jr., and a 2018 All-Star in Charlie Morton. It’s the deepest rotation we’ve seen in MLB in a long time, but it will be tested by Boston’s relentless offense.

The Red Sox used Chris Sale to get three huge outs in ALDS Game 4 against the New York Yankees. It’s probably a good thing they did because it helped them avoid a Game 5 and allows them to slot Sale in here for Game 1. Sale was his usual dominant self in 2018. When healthy that is. Shoulder stiffness cost him a handful of outings. Despite that, his 6.5 WAR was second only to Verlander among AL pitchers.

To the surprise of many, Boston will go back to David Price in Game 2 after his postseason struggles continued in the ALDS. Price’s teams are winless in his 10 career postseason starts. There have been some disasters in there too, leading to his 5.28 postseason ERA. On the plus side, he obviously has his teammates support. He also pitched 6.2 scoreless innings against Houston last postseason. Though all of those innings came in relief.

Nathan Eovaldi and Rick Porcello were both sensational against the Yankees. They could be the key guys in this series, especially if Price doesn’t turn it around.

Astros keys to victory

• Beat Chris Sale in Game 1. The Astros had an OPS 70 points higher (.803 to .733) against left-handed pitching this season. Alex Bregman led the way with a .969 OPS, good for fifth among qualified AL hitters. Of course, Chris Sale is not like most lefties, but if the Astros can have some success against him and steal Game 1, imagine the pressure that would add on David Price in Game 2. Price, of course, is also a left-hander, meaning he’s a good matchup for Houston’s lineup.

• Don’t let the MVP candidates beat you. In Boston’s lineup, we’re obviously talking about Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. While they’re complemented by excellent hitters like Andrew Benintendi and Xander Bogaerts, not to mention several solid role players, Betts and Martinez are the guys this lineup feeds off of. Limiting them would go a long way toward shutting Boston down.

Red Sox keys to victory

• Hit some homers. In the ALDS, we felt it was important for the Red Sox to wear down Yankees pitching by working at-bats and creating traffic. They had several big innings by doing just that. In this series though, Boston might have to rely on the home run a little more. We’ve already explained how good Houston’s pitching is, meaning scoring opportunities could be limited. The long ball creates instant offense for Boston, and if timed well, it could be the difference in the series.

• Find a way to hold down Houston’s offense. Why is that so important? Because Houston’s pitching is on another level. The Astros allowed just 534 runs on the season, or 3.3 runs per game. That was by far the best in MLB. The Astros rotation led MLB with a 3.16 ERA. The bullpen also led MLB with a 3.03 ERA. There’s no let up here, meaning big offensive numbers are unlikely even for Boston’s loaded lineup.

More from Yahoo Sports:

• This Cubs star reportedly turned down a $200 million extension
• It’s free burgers in Milwaukee if Brewers win Game 1
• The Red Sox still believe in David Price for the ALCS
• MLB postseason schedule: How to watch the ALCS and NLCS