Alabama Democrat betting IVF will help her win a battleground special election

A special election for an Alabama state House seat on Tuesday will serve as an early marker of how politically salient the sudden battle over access to in-vitro fertilization will be ahead of this year’s high-stakes contests for Congress and the White House.

Look no further than the divergent strategies of Democrat Marilyn Lands and Republican Teddy Powell, a city councilmember, who are facing off for Alabama’s 10th state House District, a competitive seat in the northern part of the state. Lands is basing her message on reproductive health after running (and losing) on education, health care and the economy two years ago, while Powell’s team cut an ad on IVF but chose not to air it.

Lands lost the race by around 7 points in 2022 to Republican David Cole, who resigned over the summer after pleading guilty to voter fraud. In 2020, former President Donald Trump narrowly won this district, and former Democratic Sen. Doug Jones — who is supporting Lands — won it by around 5 points. The race won’t change much in the state House, as Republicans currently have a supermajority.

But her campaign is trying something different this time around: bringing abortion-rights messaging to the forefront — especially after the state Supreme Court ruling there that imperiled IVF and grabbed national headlines, before the legislature passed a law restoring access.

In a recent television ad, Lands highlights an Alabama woman’s inability to get an abortion due to the state’s ban, and shares her own experience with abortion. One of the headlines flashing on screen refers to the state court’s IVF ruling.

Lands said in an interview with POLITICO that while she is still talking about those other issues from her previous campaign, she felt that centering her abortion story was “the exact right thing to do at this moment in time” because “more is at stake for the state right now.”

Powell — who supports access to IVF but sees it as a distinct issue from abortion — said in an interview with POLITICO that he doesn’t think IVF will be a big factor in the race, considering the legislation restoring access was enacted. Dalton Dismukes, an adviser to Powell, added that the campaign cut an ad after the ruling featuring a woman who used IVF, but chose not to use it because they did not want to “politicize” the issue.

Powell accused Lands of turning it into a “national race” by focusing on reproductive rights, while his campaign has primarily emphasized issues like inflation and local infrastructure.

“It's certainly an issue that needs to be dealt with, but not our top issue,” Powell said of reproductive rights. “I don't think that this is the issue that wins or loses the race.”

Regardless of the outcome, it will be difficult to draw too many conclusions as to how IVF will play out in more high-profile races come the fall: It’s a special election in a state that won’t get any attention come November, and it’s months before the fight for Congress really heats up. But it could set the tone as Democrats seek to use this as a campaign issue — and Republicans figure out how to respond — in the coming months.

This story first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score newsletter. Sign up for POLITICO Pro.