Ag workforce will depend on robust international migration

Tim Krohn, The Free Press, Mankato, Minn.
Updated ·2 min read
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Feb. 21—The demographic trends in Minnesota have been trending in the same direction for three decades and will continue into the future.

The white population and the white fertility rate are declining.

The Hispanic, Asian American and African American populations are increasing as is the international migration into the state.

"Without international growth, we'd be losing population," said Eric Guthrie, senior demographer with the Minnesota Demographic Center. "More diversity is a long-term trend."

Speaking Tuesday at the Minnesota Pork Congress in Mankato, Guthrie said the growing worker shortage experienced by agribusiness and other sectors will only improve if international migration is strong. He noted the state currently has about 205,000 open positions.

"Our economic system is based on continual growth.

"The value of being an open, welcoming state to continue our prosperity can't be overstated."

Minnesota's overall population has continued to increase, topping 5.7 million people at the last census count in 2020. That was an increase of 346,000 from 2010 to 2020.

The white population has been on a decreasing trend since 1990. The white population younger than age 18 fell by 845,000 people over the decade as white fertility rates fell, leaving deaths outpacing births.

Guthrie said the higher fertility rates among Hispanics, Blacks and international migrants account for the growth the state did see in the under age 18 category.

He said those arriving from other nations see a higher fertility rate from the first and second generation, but that fertility rate will drop in the third and following generations.

Guthrie said the millennial segment is larger than the baby boomer segment and they are delaying having a child until past their late 20s, which will result in declining fertility rates among millennials.

Meanwhile, he said the international segment coming in is often at the age of starting families and is ready for employment. "And that helps us."

The proportion of the population that is 65 and older continues to grow significantly. That, coupled with slow or declining growth of the younger population, have a number of impacts on society, including lower tax revenues, higher elder care costs and more labor force pressures.

The Pork Congress, sponsored by the Minnesota Pork Producers Association, continues Wednesday at the Mayo Event Center.