ACC Preview: Two national championship contenders in one division
The ACC will again be heavily slanted toward one division. The Atlantic Division features two of the top four teams in the country in the AP Poll — No. 2 Clemson, last year’s national runner-up, and No. 4 Florida State. The Atlantic also boasts No. 19 Louisville while the only ranked Coastal division team is No. 24 North Carolina.
On paper, it looks like the team that emerges from the Atlantic has a pretty straightforward path to the College Football Playoff, but the Coastal definitely has a few teams that could shake things up.
Here’s how the Dr. Saturday crew thinks the ACC could play out this season.
Offensive Player of the Year: Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Defensive Player of the Year: Devonte Fields, DE/OLB, Louisville
Newcomer of the Year: Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State
ACC ATLANTIC (in predicted order of finish)
Florida State
2015 record: 10-3 (6-2 ACC)
2015 finish: 2nd – Atlantic
Overview: Florida State sure is talented, huh? The Noles were super young in 2015 and still won 10 games. That youth translates to experience now, and FSU should be firmly back in the national championship picture. Heisman candidate Dalvin Cook is back at running back behind a stout offensive line. The defense is full of stars as well, namely safety Derwin James. The lone question mark for FSU is at quarterback, where redshirt freshman Deondre Francois will start now that senior Sean Maguire is out for a bit with a foot injury. If Francois can establish his footing early on, an undefeated regular season is not out of the question.
Best-case scenario: Francois plays well as FSU storms out of the gates with a win over Ole Miss. Francois survives early road tests at Louisville and USF, propelling an undefeated FSU team through its ACC slate and into the Playoff.
Worst-case scenario: FSU loses the opener to Ole Miss behind shaky quarterback play, leading Jimbo Fisher to play Francois and Maguire when he returns from injury. The Noles then lose at Louisville, effectively ending their CFP dreams.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 8-0
Clemson
2015 record: 14-1 (8-0 ACC)
2015 finish: 1st – Atlantic
Overview: Clemson finally took the step from “very good program” to “national powerhouse” in 2015 with 14 wins and a national runner-up finish. The Tigers, led by Deshaun Watson, the best quarterback in the country, are loaded again on both sides of the ball. The ACC (not just the Atlantic) is going to come down to Clemson’s Oct. 29 trip to Florida State. I’m giving the Seminoles the slight edge in the Atlantic because of the pass-rushing talent Clemson lost on defense. The secondary shouldn’t be as good as 2015, either. Clemson’s schedule isn’t as tough as FSU’s, so a loss to the Noles could ultimately cost the Tigers a Playoff spot.
Best-case scenario: The Tigers go unbeaten heading into the FSU game and knock off the Seminoles in Tallahassee, leading to another College Football Playoff berth.
Worst-case scenario: The Tigers drop an early game to a pesky Louisville squad and lose at Florida State, but rebound to contend for a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl. Or even worse: Watson hurts his knee again.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 7-1
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Louisville
2015 record: 8-5 (5-3 ACC)
2015 finish: 3rd – Atlantic
Overview: Louisville is a team to be feared. Lamar Jackson showed flashes of brilliance at quarterback as a freshman. Now with a full offseason of running Bobby Petrino’s offense under his belt, Jackson could be one of college football’s breakout stars if he improves his passing. This offense is going to put up numbers, and Todd Grantham’s defense — at linebacker especially (hello, Devonte Fields) — is going to swarm its opponents. The Cardinals are probably the third-best team in the ACC but they play the top two teams, division foes FSU and Clemson, in weeks three and five, respectively. Those games are going to be very close, as is a late-season challenge at Houston.
Best-case scenario: Louisville splits the Clemson and Florida State games, giving itself a real path to the ACC title game.
Worst-case scenario: The Cardinals lose to FSU and Clemson and drop a game or two to lesser ACC opponents.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 6-2
Boston College
2015 record: 3-9 (0-8 ACC)
2015 finish: 7th – Atlantic
Overview: What a strange season Boston College had in 2015. How often do you see a team with one of the best defenses in the country go winless in conference play? The defense should be good again in 2016, but probably not 15.3 points per game good. BC brought in a veteran quarterback — Kentucky transfer Patrick Towles — to solidify what was a putrid offense in 2015. Dual-threat Darius Wade is back from injury, too. An easy non-conference slate (UMass, Wagner, Buffalo, UConn) gives Steve Addazio’s team a good chance to return to a bowl.
Best-case scenario: Knock off Georgia Tech in Dublin and UMass to open the season and take care of business in home games against even or inferior teams, and BC is going bowling.
Worst-case scenario: BC’s brutal offensive injuries resurface early in the year and the team relies too much on its defense again. A few close losses against the lower level ACC teams could cost Addazio his job.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 3-5
Syracuse
2015 record: 4-8 (2-6 ACC)
2015 finish: 5th – Atlantic
Overview: Dino Babers is going to bring his super-fast offense over from Bowling Green into the Carrier Dome, and he has a talented young quarterback in Eric Dungey to work with (albeit behind an average at best o-line). The installation of that kind of offense can negatively impact a defense. Cuse will undoubtedly face more plays, and if the offense faces some expected growing pains, things could get ugly early in the year. This team should be better overall, but it may not immediately translate in the wins column — especially with USF and Notre Dame in the non-conference slate.
Best-case scenario: The Orange quickly thrive with Babers’ offense, pull off a few upsets and flirt with the postseason behind a breakout star in Dungey.
Worst-case scenario: The transition to Babers’ offense goes awry, especially with the offensive line and the defense continues to give up yards in big chunks. A two-or-three win season isn’t out of the question.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 2-6
NC State
2015 record: 7-6 (3-5 ACC)
2015 finish: 4th – Atlantic
Overview: NC State has gone to back-to-back bowls under Dave Doeren, but a weak non-conference schedule played a big factor. That schedule is much tougher this year (ECU, ODU and Notre Dame), and the Wolfpack must replace some of its best players, namely QB Jacoby Brissett. New OC Eli Drinkwitz (formerly of Boise State) is a Gus Malzahn disciple so you’ll see a faster offense (though the receiver depth is not optimal) with either Jalan McClendon or Boise transfer Ryan Finley at QB. Defensively, eight starters return, so that unit should be pretty solid. This team doesn’t seem much better or worse than last year, but the beefed up schedule could result in a few more losses and possibly no bowl trip.
Best-case scenario: NC State starts 4-0 and finally pulls out a big upset win for the first time under Doeren en route to an eight-win season.
Worst-case scenario: The Wolfpack fall to ECU in the non-con and struggle to transition to Drinkwitz’s scheme. The team’s confidence takes a hit with three straight blowout losses to Notre Dame, Clemson and Louisville, and NCSU misses a bowl.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 2-6
Wake Forest
2015 record: 3-9 (1-7 ACC)
2015 finish: 6th – Atlantic
Overview: Just keep rebuilding, Dave Clawson. Just keep rebuilding. Clawson has two ACC wins in two seasons at Wake. And though this doesn’t feel like the year he takes Wake back to a bowl, it’ll maintain its solid play on defense and take a step forward offensively. The offense has been borderline unwatchable the last two years, but it has been playing with young talent with nowhere to go but up. Wideout Cortez Lewis is a guy to keep an eye on. Most of Wake’s winnable games are at home, so the Demon Deacons have a great chance to take a small step forward in the win column.
Best-case scenario: Wake has some legitimate ACC talent on offense, but most of those guys played before they were really ready last year out of necessity. If those guys show some legitimate progression, Wake could pull a few minor upsets and have some legitimate momentum as a program heading into 2017.
Worst-case scenario: It’s unlikely, but going winless in ACC play is really not out of the question
Predicted 2016 conference record: 1-7
ACC COASTAL (in predicted order of finish)
North Carolina
2015 record: 11-3 (8-0 ACC)
2015 finish: 1st – Coastal
Overview: The 2015 season was a big one for UNC, and there’s no reason to think the Tar Heels can’t come out on top of the Coastal yet again. QB Marquise Williams has graduated, but strong-armed junior Mitch Trusbisky looks ready to take the job and run with it, especially with Elijah Hood at running back and receivers Ryan Switzer and Mack Hollins back on offense. UNC’s defense improved after the hire of Gene Chizik, but is still the team’s weaker side of the ball. The Heels will be tested early when they open against Georgia in Atlanta. They also face FSU and Miami on the road. Still, UNC is the top team in the Coastal and looks primed to win double-digit games again thanks to a friendly home schedule.
Best-case scenario: If the Heels can beat Georgia in the opener, they could be 4-0 heading into Tallahassee on Oct. 1. Pull off that upset, and UNC enters the College Football Playoff picture.
Worst-case scenario: Trubisky struggles early and injuries expose the lack of depth on defense, resulting in a few disappointing losses and a low-level bowl appearance.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 7-1
Miami
2015 record: 8-5 (5-3 ACC)
2015 finish: 2nd – Coastal
Overview: Can the Hurricanes ascend from mediocrity with Mark Richt running the program? He certainly has plenty of talent to work with in year one, mainly junior quarterback Brad Kaaya. Kaaya will play behind the same five starters up front and has a variety of playmakers around him. And new DC Manny Diaz seems to have the personnel to fit his aggressive style. This team is every bit as talented as UNC, but its schedule is much tougher. In consecutive October weeks, the Canes face FSU and UNC at home, before roads games at Virginia Tech (Thursday night) and Notre Dame. That’s a make-or-break stretch.
Best-case scenario: The Canes start off strong and beat North Carolina, paving their way to a Coastal Division crown.
Worst-case scenario: That tough schedule could get the best of Miami. The Hurricanes could very well get better as a team without it showing in the win column.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 6-2
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Pittsburgh
2015 record: 8-5 (6-2 ACC)
2015 finish: 2nd – Coastal
Overview: Pitt embodied its first-year coach Pat Narduzzi in 2015 with a hard-nosed team that relied on a strong defense and steady ground game. RB James Conner, the 2014 ACC Player of the Year, is back after a cancer diagnosis, but it’s hard to project where he’ll be health-wise when the season begins. With Conner out, Qadree Ollison filled in admirably and the two could form quite a duo, especially since the Panthers’ passing game won’t scare teams. The defense, as is Narduzzi’s forte, will be solid again, but this team is a notch below the likes of UNC and Miami (Pitt plays both on the road) in the Coastal.
Best-case scenario: Pitt starts 3-1 with a win over rival Penn State and puts itself in contention for the division by beating Virginia Tech and Miami on the road.
Worst-case scenario: The Panthers lose three straight to PSU, Oklahoma State and UNC early in the year and struggle to reach bowl eligibility.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 5-3
Virginia Tech
2015 record: 7-6 (4-4 ACC)
2015 finish: 5th – Coastal
Overview: By all accounts, the hire of Justin Fuente to replace Frank Beamer was a good one, and he has talent to work with right away. The Hokies haven’t had a crop of skill position players like this in a while, but the quarterback is a question mark. Fuente will cater his offense for his QB’s skillset (probably JUCO transfer Jerod Evans) instead of forcing his system. Fuente retained longtime DC Bud Foster, who replaces a lot of talent, on the line especially. A bowl game looks likely, especially since Tech manages to avoid Clemson, FSU and Louisville on its schedule. Facing Tennessee and Notre Dame in the non-con balances that out a bit.
Best-case scenario: Evans thrives early in the year and puts his array of skill position players to good use while Foster gets his defense back on track after a down year in 2015. An early upset of Tennessee could propel the Hokies into contenders in the Coastal.
Worst-case scenario: Tech has some growing pains with Fuente’s offense and struggle early on, including a blowout loss to Tennessee. The quarterback position does not produce and the Hokies scuffle in ACC play, missing a bowl for the first time since 1992.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 4-4
Duke
2015 record: 8-5 (4-4 ACC)
2015 finish: 4th – Coastal
Overview: It’s proven unwise in recent years to overlook David Cutcliffe’s Duke teams, but with QB Thomas Sirk’s status (torn Achilles) up in the air heading into the season, this team doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence — especially with how its schedule shakes out. Duke gets Northwestern, Notre Dame, Louisville, Pitt and Miami all on the road. If the Blue Devils don’t take care of their home games, reaching a bowl for a fifth straight year could be a struggle.
Best-case scenario: After a 2-0 start, Sirk returns for games Week 3 and helps the Blue Devils pull off a few road upsets and go bowling once again.
Worst-case scenario: Sirk just can’t get his health right and Cutcliffe has to rely on a crew of underwhelming backups all season. If whoever Cutcliffe settles on can’t steer the ship, a 3-or-4 win season could happen.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 3-5
Georgia Tech
2015 record: 3-9 (3-5 ACC)
2015 finish: 7th – Coastal
Overview: Georgia Tech falling off a cliff from 11-3 in 2014 to 3-9 in 2015 was a big surprise. Quarterback Justin Thomas had a huge year as a sophomore, but struggled mightily as a junior. That seemed like a product of the injuries (a lot of them) around him in Paul Johnson’s option offense, but by no means did he play well (that 41.7 completion percentage is ugly). Thomas and the offense will bounce back, but a defense that doesn’t have a lot of talent and needs to replace most of its secondary. A bowl appearance would be a surprise.
Best-case scenario: Start 3-0 (vs. BC, Mercer and Vanderbilt) to establish some confidence heading into ACC play. Pull a few upsets and go to a bowl game.
Worst-case scenario: GT has five or six games that really look like toss-ups on paper. If the Jackets lose those close games, especially early in the year, this could end up being a 3-win season all over again, putting Johnson on the hot seat.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 2-6
Virginia
2015 record: 4-8 (3-5 ACC)
2015 finish: 6th – Coastal
Overview: Hey, Bronco Mendenhall coaches Virginia now! That’s kind of weird, but it’s also a pretty good hire. He has a different way of doing things, and it seems like the Cavaliers have bought in. This season is going to be about establishing a foundation; having talent on defense (which is switching to a 3-4) like Quin Blanding and Micah Kiser along with a senior quarterback in Matt Johns (provided he beats out ECU transfer Kurt Benkert) will make the Cavs more competitive than your usual program entering a complete rebuild. Still, it’s hard to find many wins on their schedule.
Best-case scenario: A 3-1 start is very possible. Couple that with an unexpected win or two, and UVA could end up flirting with bowl eligibility.
Worst-case scenario: Losing to both (at) UConn and (vs,) Central Michigan in the non-con would be a gut-punch heading into the ACC schedule. Things could get ugly pretty quickly.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 1-7
Check out our SEC Preview here.
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Sam Cooper is a writer for the Yahoo Sports blogs. Have a tip? Email him or follow him on Twitter!
