Abilene area expects fire weather ahead of severe storm potential

ABILENE, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – The Spring Equinox is a week away, and the season is already being felt here in the Big Country. This week, we expect some fire weather, then we are likely to see some storms forming.

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Here in Abilene, the average high temperature for this time of year is 69 degrees. So far this month, temperatures have been warmer than that with an average high of 72.3 degrees.

That’s not the only thing that’s above normal for this time of year. We’ve already received 1.42 inches of rain; the bulk of that occurring on March 7.

Here is a look at the Abilene Climate Data for the month of March so far:

With the rainfall we’ve received so far, that puts us at a yearly rainfall total of 4.83 inches, which is 1.83 inches above normal. That is definitely good news for us and the farmers in the area.

More rain is expected throughout the week, and heading into the holiday weekend. Models have pushed the timing for showers and storms back a few hours.

At the start of the week, showers were forecasted to begin overnight Wednesday just after midnight. Now, showers are forecasted to begin early Thursday morning around sunrise.

We are still keeping an eye on the threat for severe weather on Thursday. The best potential still seems to be over the eastern third of the Big Country due to the instability and deep layer shear.

The area where storms develop will depend on the location of the dryline once the cold front begins to approach. This setup is similar to how it was last week.

If storms develop and become severe, then all hazards will be possible. Hail of at least the size of a quarter, damaging winds over 50 miles per hour, localized flooding, and we can never rule out an isolated tornado.

BCH meteorologists will continue to monitor the situation over the next couple of days, but March is the start of our severe weather season.

We just had severe storms in the area last Thursday, and here we are again looking at more severe storm potential this Thursday. We’ll have to see if we go 3-for-3 next Thursday.

Before we can put all of our focus on the severe weather potential Thursday, we must get through Wednesday, which is a day of elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions.

Temperatures will be very warm Wednesday in the low-to-mid 80s, with very dry humidity values as low as 10%, and gusty winds up to 30 mph is the classic recipe for fire weather.

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The Abilene Fire Department put out a guide in February on how to prepare your home for wildfires.

Please use extra caution on Wednesday, and make sure you do your part to prevent any fires from being started. Most grass fires are started by people, so enjoy the warmer weather but be safe.

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