850,000 — and counting. New Brunswick's population numbers continue to rise

New Brunswick's population has surpassed 850,000, according to Statistics Canada's population clock.

That's up from 800,000 in 2022.

It represents an increase the size of Miramichi, Edmundston and Bathurst combined, in just two years.

The analysis isn't complete on where people have come from in the last year, but the most recent report for the four years ending in 2022, indicates that three-quarters of the province's population growth was from interprovincial migration, said Pablo Miah a senior data analyst at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training.

"People who can move — who are able to move — are moving to smaller provinces to find affordable housing, to find schooling for their families," Miah said.

The remaining 25 per cent growth was made up of "permanent movers to New Brunswick," he said, including permanent residents and excluding non-citizens who have temporary work or study permits.

New Brunswick's growth rate is on par with the national rate of nine per cent, but Miah said it's hard to say whether that will continue.

"The post-covid surge and subsequent inflows have gone down quite a bit," he said.

Pablo Miah, a senior data analyst at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, said people are still moving to smaller provinces. (Rob Blanchad/University of New Brunswick)

Remi Arsenault recently moved back to New Brunswick after retiring from a 20-year career in the military.

"My nieces are here so I came back to spend time with family, basically," said Arsenault, who is originally from Bouctouche.

He also likes New Brunswick's location because it's central to Maine, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia.

Arsenault said he and his partner are enjoying the hustle and bustle of life in booming Dieppe, but it wasn't easy to find a home.

Remi Arsenault just moved back to the province after being away for 20 years. (Submitted by Remi Arsenault)

When they first moved to New Brunswick, they had to settle for renting a house for a year in Memramcook.

The place they finally found within their $350,000 budget was vacated by people who were originally from Brazil.

Arsenault said the previous occupants had moved to New Brunswick in 2019 and decided to leave because they found the weather was too cold.

For his part, Arsenault said he intends to stick around for the next 10 years, anyway.

He's not sure whether he'll seek civilian work, but said he has experience in finance, law and human resources and did two tours of duty, in Kuwait and Afghanistan.

A table showing immigration counts of first-time arrivals into New Brunswick, broken down by where they come from. (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data, and Training)

Arsenault doesn't have a family doctor yet, after a year on the wait list, but said that's no worse than the situation where he last lived, in P.E.I.

"Everything else has got to catch up with the population at this point," said Chris Chapman, a Moncton-area Realtor with Royal Lepage.

Population growth has been good for his business, but more housing is needed, said Chapman.

Inventories are low and that drives up prices, he said.

The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Moncton is another of the latest parties to call for urgent action to spur housing development to keep up with the growing population.

CEO Nadine Fullarton said the province's job vacancy rate is at a high of about 20 per cent.

The chamber is advocating for the province to make a deal with Ottawa for new housing related infrastructure funding.

It's also lobbying for tax reforms that Fullarton said would lower rent and increase the number of units created.

Nadine Fullarton, CEO of the Greater Moncton Chamber of Commerce, is advocating for more housing funding to meet demand. (Denis Duquette/Submitted by Nadine Fullarton)

New Brunswick landlords are paying twice as much property tax as those in Nova Scotia, and every other Atlantic province has eliminated the provincial portion of HST on new home construction, she said.

The chamber also wants people who have construction skills to be prioritized through immigration pathways.

The provincial population growth strategy, dated 2019-2024, aimed for a steady increase in annual immigration to 7,500 by 2024.

The strategy had four main objectives:

• To attract a skilled workforce that aligns with labour market needs.

• To recruit entrepreneurs that encourage sustainable economic growth.

• To create an environment where newcomers and their families can settle and succeed.

• To engage communities to foster a more diverse and welcoming province.

Besides the number of immigrants, other targets were to reach a one-third portion being francophone and to get at least 85 per cent of new arrivals to stay in the province long term.

The immigrations targets have been surpassed by a wide margin, said Moncef Lakouas, an advisor to the New Brunswick Multicultural Council.

He sees that as a very good thing.

"It's good for the social fabric of the province. It's good to maintain social services. It's good to create jobs. It's good to start new businesses. … It's good on many levels," he said.

Immigration is needed In order to sustain the economy, said Lakouas.

When he helped the province devise its population growth strategy, the 10-year forecast was for 140,000 New Brunswickers to retire from the workforce.

Moncef Lakouas, an advisor to the New Brunswick Multicultural Council, said increased immigration is good for the province. (Submitted by Moncef Lakouas)

He's glad to see immigrants getting jobs, but said one area where there's still room for improvement is in recognizing foreign credentials, so that foreign-trained nurses, for example, don't have to train all over again.

"If they want to be something and to work … we need to make sure that they have the conditions … to pursue that," he said.

The five-year retention rate has "drastically improved," said Lakouas.

If you look at the economic stream of immigrants — people who are coming here to get a job —  the retention rate is close to 80 per cent, he said.

"Everybody is doing their best to be able to create environments where immigrants are feeling welcomed," said Lakouas.

"We need to make sure that they are treated with dignity and respect."

"If they don't feel welcome … the tendency is for them to go to larger cities."

A spokesperson for the provincial Department of Immigration sent an email statement attributed to Minister Greg Turner.

"New Brunswick is experiencing growth like never before and the significant number of people settling in our province has been key to the province's recent success," the statement said.

He said growth remains driven by interprovincial immigration, and helps increase the tax base and therefore access to services and resources.

"With respect to the ongoing Population Growth strategy, it's success is still being evaluated, however we are confident that the majority of goals and objectives have been achieved," Turner said.