5 key takeaways from presidential preference election results in Arizona

Arizona’s presidential preference election offered little headline-grabbing suspense, especially for a state where results can take days to come into full focus.

Unofficial results showed President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump each won their party’s contests, as expected. But Tuesday did offer a few things to consider as the state moves closer to November, when Arizona figures to be among the fiercest battlegrounds.

Here are five takeaways from Arizona’s equivalent to a presidential primary.

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The protest vote against Biden was no threat

Early unofficial results Biden had nearly 90% of the vote among those who turned in their ballots before Tuesday. It pointed to an easy win, but the final results are needed to assess how prevalent any protest vote was among Democrats unhappy with the president.

Marianne Williamson was Biden’s closest rival, with just over 3%. It was no threat to Biden, but far more than the 0.1% support she garnered in 2020 with far more attention.

Biden is trailing in polls in Arizona, as in other swing states, and the reasons vary from his handling of the economy, the border with Mexico and the war between Israel and Hamas.

Many political observers will look at Arizona and other swing states for insights into Democratic enthusiasm and a willingness to consider other options, such as third-party candidates.

At least one group led by activist Kai Newkirk encouraged Democrats to vote for Williamson to show their support for a ceasefire in the Israeli war with Hamas in Gaza.

Newkirk acknowledged he fears another Trump term, but wanted to send a message to Biden about serious humanitarian concerns for Palestinians in Gaza and the need for an end to hostilities there.

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“It’s not enough to just say you want it. He’s got to take action and secure it,” Newkirk said of Biden.

They chose to vote for Williamson because she has shown clear support for a ceasefire, Newkirk said. Their protest Tuesday doesn’t jeopardize Biden’s win in Arizona, he said, and is a reminder that the state could be determined by margins as thin as her support.

Biden won Arizona by fewer than 11,000 votes in 2020.

“I dread the thought of another term for President Trump,” Newkirk said. “I think it’s a fascist threat to our democracy and to the health of our entire planet … but (we) need to be pushing Biden now to do everything he can to stop the killing in Gaza.”

Supporters of his protest gathered in Phoenix to watch the election results come in and show they aren’t isolated in their view that Biden needs to be more assertive in curbing Israeli actions in Gaza.

Israel’s military has leveled much of Gaza in response to the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel led by Hamas.

The Hamas attacks killed about 1,200 people and resulted in about 240 hostages taken. Israel has killed more than 30,000 Palestinians in its military response, according to the Palestinian health ministry.

The Wall Street Journal estimates Hamas is still holding about 100 hostages, while another three dozen are likely dead, but their remains have not been released.

Trump may have a problem in Arizona

There are big caveats around Arizona’s presidential preference election and political observers warn against reading too much into a low-stakes contest featuring two presumptive nominees.

But Trump’s showing in early, unofficial voting suggests a potentially significant problem where he really doesn’t want it.

Maricopa and Pima counties are by far the state’s biggest population centers. In both counties, Trump’s support was overwhelming, but about 5 percentage points lower than his support in the state’s other 13 counties.

In both places, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley did about that much better. She is Trump’s closest rival and someone who remained in the race during a portion of Arizona’s early voting period. The rest of the GOP slate didn’t really change, suggesting a swath of voters who locked in on Trump and his nearest foil.

That trend could be smaller or go in the other direction by the time all the votes are counted, but if it holds up, it could point to a sizable pocket of resistance to Trump among Republican voters in the places where they vote in the largest numbers.

At the same time, Biden fared slightly better among Democrats in Maricopa and Pima counties. It suggests that his support within his party was little different across the state.

The impact of Biden's visit on turnout is not clear

Biden visited the state on the day voters finished casting ballots. It’s the kind of attention the state can expect for months to come.

Did his presence boost Democratic turnout? Or add votes for him by Democrats who might have been wavering?

It’s purely speculative whether his visit had any significant impact on voting in an otherwise low-turnout election.

What it did show, however, is Biden’s team recognizes there is work to do in the state he won by the narrowest margin in the country in 2020.

Biden consistently trails in polling in Arizona and the national issues of border security and inflation have special, unwanted relevance to the state.

Trump and then-Vice President Mike Pence made a record number of visits to Arizona during the 2020 election cycle. Biden made one.

That was enough because 2020 was, in important ways, a referendum on Trump’s term. But now the race will likely be seen as a choice between two men who have occupied the White House.

Biden’s visit is a well-timed sign he knows he needs to be more visible in making his case to Arizonans.

Latino voters a worry for Biden

Biden’s visit concentrated on outreach to Latino voters, a demographic that is part of a potential shift for minority voters collectively toward Trump.

That movement isn’t huge, at least not yet, but it’s significant enough that Democratic operatives are trying to figure out how many votes they may be losing in groups that have traditionally voted for them in overwhelming numbers.

Arizona Democratic Party Chair Yolanda Bejarano acknowledged the issue Tuesday.

“I think it's that we have not been talking to folks about the issues that President Biden has been delivering on. … Things like jobs, the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, lowering prescription drug prices,” she said after a “Latinos con Biden-Harris" campaign event at El Portal restaurant in Phoenix.

During his Phoenix visit, Biden talked about Latinos, who make up about a quarter of Arizona’s voters.

“Anybody that doesn’t pay attention to them is really stupid,” Biden said to an audience of around 75 supporters at El Portal, a Mexican restaurant operated by community leaders Mary Rose and Earl Wilcox, both longtime Democrats.

Democrats are hoping to see their shrinking support with Blacks and Latinos offset with gains among college-educated white voters, a demographic that once voted Republican in sizable numbers and has fallen in the Trump era.

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The election appeared to go smoothly without glitches

Election Day seems to have passed without the kind of problems that marred the 2022 general election, when some of the tabulation machines in Maricopa County couldn’t instantly add votes to the running count.

At the time, county officials eventually processed the ballots and emphasized that every proper vote was counted. But the problem quickly became another grievance for those insistent on rigged elections in Arizona and elsewhere.

Final tallies are needed, and that could produce drama in populous Maricopa County or in rural outposts that have wanted to try different approaches to counting ballots.

But Tuesday may be notable for its relative quiet.

Arizona could once again become a pivotal state in the presidential race and the battle for both chambers of Congress. The state’s Legislature also hangs on a thin margin.

Elections in Maricopa County and the state more broadly have faced complaints for several cycles and needed to put a key election event behind them without drama. For now at least, Tuesday may have provided that.

— Republic reporter Laura Gersony contributed to this story.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona primary: 5 takeaways from the presidential preference election