Here are 3 numbers Alabama football must change to return to College Football Playoff in 2023
Despite how it might have felt after Alabama football lost a second game in early November, the Crimson Tide isn’t years away from being a national-championship contender again.
Had the last play of the Tennessee or LSU game gone in Alabama’s favor, we’re having a different conversation right now. We’re probably talking College Football Playoff and what the Crimson Tide would need to do to have a shot at a championship.
But Alabama couldn’t close out either of those games. So instead, it will play Kansas State in the Sugar Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 31 (11 a.m., ESPN). Appearing in this game outside of the four-team field falls short of the Crimson Tide’s championship-or-bust standard. It’s a high bar, but it’s a reality.
Still, it's not time to write obituaries for Nick Saban's dynasty. Returning to the CFP in 2023 is possible, but improvement will need to be made in several areas.
Here are three statistics on which Alabama needs to reverse course next season to have a shot at competing for a national championship. This is not an exhaustive list.
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Turnover margin
As complex as football can be, there’s a pretty simple formula to winning: Take the football away more than you turn it over.
Alabama didn’t accomplish that during the 2022 regular season. The Crimson Tide finished with nine fumbles and eight interceptions for a total of 17 turnovers. Meanwhile, the defense forced 15 takeaways. The turnover margin was -2.
That’s the only negative turnover ratio Alabama has had the past five seasons. The closest was 2021 at +6. It was even better in 2020 (+9), 2019 (+16) and 2018 (+10).
“It comes down to player awareness,” Saban said in November. “It comes down to player focus. It comes down to, on defense, you’ve got to be physical. When you’re physical, you knock the ball off of people. When you have good clean up, which means a lot of guys are getting to the ball, the second guy in has a chance to take a shot at the ball.”
Missed tackles
Pro Football Focus has charted defenses since 2014, and never once has Alabama had more than 100 missed tackles during the regular season.
Then 2022 happened. The Crimson Tide had 108 missed tackles on defense, according to PFF’s charting.
Alabama has been in the 90s going back to 2019 with 91 (2021), 93 (2020) and 98 (2019) missed tackles. Before then, Alabama neared 90 missed tackles only once, 2014, when it had 86 missed tackles.
Needing to execute better is a phrase frequently thrown around by coaches and players when something isn’t working. Missed tackles are the epitome of not executing. A player can be in the right spot to make a play on defense, but if he misses the tackle, it doesn’t matter.
A great defensive play call can be made, but it won’t have much of an impact if players don’t make the plays when necessary.
Drops
These are killer on offense. Drops are the perfect aid to a defense facing a great quarterback (see Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young), because no matter how well the signal caller throws a pass, a receiver has to catch it for it to be worth something.
This has really been a two-year trend for Alabama. The Crimson Tide had 23 drops in the regular season this year after 27 in 2021, per PFF.
That’s a significant increase from 14 (2020), 17 (2019) and 13 (2018) drops. And keep in mind, PFF doesn’t chart drops that are the result of a defender making a play on the ball or receiver. Drops are counted only when the receiver is at fault.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama football: Three stats that need to change in 2023
