2024 Kentucky Derby Watch: Get to know the early contenders for the 150th Run for the Roses

Less than 66 days remain until one of the biggest events in horse racing history.

The 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby — which now carries a $5 million purse — will leave the starting gate on May 4 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, which means less than three months remain until the much-anticipated event.

And the qualification process to make the Derby’s 20-horse starting gate is well underway.

A total of 30 Kentucky Derby qualifying races have already been run, with 22 as part of the American road to the Derby, five as part of the European road and three as part of the Japanese road.

The American leaderboard is headlined by the Brad Cox-trained Timberlake (66 qualifying points), along with Chad Brown’s Sierra Leone and Steve Asmussen’s Track Phantom, each with 55 points.

The European leaderboard is led by Notable Speech and its 20 points after the Charlie Appleby trainee won last weekend’s Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes at England’s Kempton Park. Four other horses have 10 points each: Rosallion (Ireland), Ancient Wisdom (France), Deepone (Great Britain) and Ghostwriter (Ireland).

The Japanese leaderboard is paced by Ramjet’s (Japan) 30 points.

Of course, storylines have emerged alongside these qualifying races, with one of the biggest being that trainer Bob Baffert is still banned from fielding a horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Between the continuing Baffert saga, the horses that have already impressed on the Derby trail and a big slate of prep races set for this weekend, here’s what you need to know as the Kentucky Derby creeps ever closer.

Bob Baffert won’t have a presence at the 2024 Kentucky Derby

Let’s start by addressing what has been the elephant in the room at Churchill Downs for several years now: Bob Baffert.

The 71-year-old trainer will not have a presence in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Last July, Churchill Downs extended Baffert’s suspension (originally lasting two years) through 2024. This prevents Baffert from entering horses at all racetracks owned by Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI), through this year.

For each of the last two Derbys, horses that were under Baffert’s guidance were transferred to one of his former assistant trainers, Tim Yakteen, who oversaw the horses as they racked up enough qualifying points to make the Derby field.

In 2022, Taiba ran 12th and Messier ran 15th.

In 2023, Reincarnate ran 13th.

But this year, none of Baffert’s horses were transferred to Yakteen or another trainer in the hopes of having them accumulate enough qualifying points to make the starting gate.

“I just remain focused on training my horses and competing in the big races,” Baffert told John Cherwa of the Los Angeles Times earlier this year.

As has been the case in past years, if a Baffert-trained horse secures any qualifying points toward the Derby in a prep race, those points are vacated.

Baffert’s suspension from CDI racetracks came after Medina Spirit tested positive for a substance banned on race day after winning the Kentucky Derby in 2021. Baffert then sued Churchill Downs, but that legal battle seems to have been settled: Baffert announced in late January that he would be dropping his suit, although his suspension from tracks owned by CDI remains in effect.

Since Baffert’s ban only relates to CDI-owned tracks, you can still expect him to play a part in the Triple Crown picture: He’s still allowed to train horses in both the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course and the Belmont Stakes, to be run this year at Saratoga Race Course while Belmont Park undergoes renovations.

(Because of the configuration of Saratoga’s main track, this year’s Belmont Stakes will be run at 1 1/4 miles instead of the usual 1 1/2 miles at Belmont).

Eighteen Baffert-trained horses (out of 346 in total) were nominated for the Triple Crown this year. Last year, Baffert won the Preakness Stakes with National Treasure.

Baffert’s continued absence from the Kentucky Derby means that one of the most successful trainers in the race’s history won’t get a chance to win the historic 150th edition: Baffert is tied with Ben Jones for the most Derby wins in history with six.

With Baffert horses out of the picture, who is the best Derby contender?

An unfortunate subplot given Baffert’s continued ban from the Derby is that the horse currently viewed as the best in the 3-year-old class won’t get a chance to make the starting gate.

The Baffert-trained Nysos is a perfect three-for-three in his racing career. Earlier this month, Nysos (a son of 2016 Derby winner Nyquist) destroyed the field in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park by 7 1/2 lengths. Nysos vacated the 20 qualifying points toward the Derby that came with his dominant win. He is the 1-5 favorite in Sunday’s San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.

So with Nysos out of the Derby picture, who is currently viewed as the race’s top contender?

There’s Timberlake, the current qualifying points leader who has won three of six career starts, including the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at a fast Oaklawn Park last weekend.

Behind him on the leaderboard are Sierra Leone (a winner in this month’s Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds) and Track Phantom, who ran second in that race.

There’s also the Todd Pletcher-trained Fierceness, last year’s 2-year-old champion and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Fierceness represents a chance at Derby redemption for Pletcher, who trained last year’s Derby favorite, Forte, who was scratched by the track veterinarian the morning of the race.

Fierceness finished third in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes this month at Gulfstream Park.

Lexington’s Kenny McPeek also has a pair of horses that have already made a mark in qualifying with Common Defense (27 points and second in last Saturday’s Rebel Stakes) and Mystik Dan (21 points and a winner this month in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes).

Five Kentucky Derby prep races are slated for this weekend

When the calendar shifts from February to March this weekend, it will bring about five more Kentucky Derby prep races.

Four of these — Grade 2 Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream Park), Grade 2 San Felipe (Santa Anita), Grade 3 Gotham (Aqueduct) and John Battaglia Memorial (Turfway) — are part of the American qualifying series. The Fountain of Youth, Gotham and Battaglia Memorial are Saturday. The San Felipe was moved to Sunday because of heavy rain forecast at Santa Anita on Saturday.

The other, the 1-mile Patton Stakes in Ireland, will be run Friday as part of the European series.

Both the Patton and John Battaglia Memorial will offer qualifying points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale. The other three races, all graded stakes, will use a 50-25-15-10-5 scale for their qualifying points.

In the Fountain of Youth, the horses to watch are Dornoch (2-1) and Locked (5-2). Dornoch is a full brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage, and was last seen winning the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct in early December. That win gave Dornoch 10 Derby qualifying points.

Locked was supposed to make his season debut two weeks ago, but was scratched from the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis after spiking a temperature. Trained by Pletcher, Locked won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, before going on to finish third his last time out in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Held at Santa Anita, the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes runs the risk of being yet another Kentucky Derby prep race dominated by Baffert (qualifying points earned by Baffert trainees are vacated). Headlining the Baffert horses in this field is the aforementioned Nysos. Baffert also has Imagination (6-1) and Wine Me Up (8-1).

Among the non-Baffert contenders to watch is John Sadler’s Scatify (6-1), who finished third in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at the same track.

In the Gotham, a wide-open field is notable for the presence of Just a Touch, a son of Triple Crown winner Justify trained by Louisville’s Brad Cox who won his career debut in January at Fair Grounds. (Last year’s Gotham winner, Raise Cain, went off at 23-1 odds).

With 50 qualifying points awarded to the winners of the Fountain of Youth, San Felipe and Gotham, all three races are essentially win-and-in opportunities to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

Epic Ride is the 5-2 morning-line favorite for the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway, which boasts a full field of 12. Bolt At Midnight is the 4-1 second choice.

This weekend’s Kentucky Derby prep races

All times Eastern

Friday

2:15 p.m.: Patton Stakes at Dundalk, Ireland (RacingTV.com)

Saturday

5:36 p.m.: Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct (FS2, FanDuel TV)

6:10 p.m.: Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park (CNBC, Peacock, FanDuel TV)

8:25 p.m.: John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park (FanDuel TV)

Sunday

6 p.m.: San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita (FanDuel TV)

Still looking for a ticket to the 150th Kentucky Derby? It won’t come cheap.