2024 Hurricane Season: Early area of low pressure not a precursor to busy season

Kimberly Miller, Palm Beach Post
Updated ·3 min read

A petite but persistent swirl of thunderstorms in the far-off Atlantic Ocean caught the eye of the National Hurricane Center on Wednesday, triggering a special forecast more than a month ahead of the June 1 start of hurricane season.

But the short-lived “area of interest”, which fizzled before warranting a second alert, is not an indicator of a busy season ahead, hurricane experts said.

Most predictions are calling for above-normal tropical activity this year as warm ocean water combines with La Niña, but that doesn’t correlate with Wednesday’s early-season blip 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

More: 2024 hurricane season: More storms expected as La Niña and warm waters combine

“Even if it did get organized, it would not be indicative of things to come,” said Tom Kines, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather. “To be honest, I wasn’t even aware the NHC had checked that system out.”

April is early to identify an area of interest for a potential tropical cyclone but it’s not unprecedented. Philippe Papin, a hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, said in a social media post that Wednesday’s special outlook is the sixth earliest in the past 15 years.

The NHC will begin issuing regular daily forecasts for the tropics May 15. Before 2021, forecasts began on June 1, but six consecutive years of early-forming tropical cyclones led the NHC to begin in mid-May.

Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University and lead writer of its seasonal hurricane forecast, said activity ahead of June 1 typically does not correlate with what happens the rest of the year.

The exception to that rule is if the early activity happens in the tropics, Klotzbach said. Wednesday’s rogue area of low pressure was in the East-Central subtropical Atlantic.

“So I’d say a blip is definitely the way to characterize that system,” he said.

Jon Erdman, a senior meteorologist with Weather.com, called it a “curiosity” in a social media post.

Sea surface temperatures between 3 and 7 degrees above normal in the Atlantic basin may have contributed to the area of low pressure gaining some brief momentum Wednesday, Kines said.

The high temperatures are a key reason seasonal forecasts this year are calling for above-average activity.

The National Hurricane Center briefly identified an area of interest in the Central Atlantic on Wednesday. It was short-lived and not an indication of a busy hurricane season, although forecasts are calling for above normal activity.
The National Hurricane Center briefly identified an area of interest in the Central Atlantic on Wednesday. It was short-lived and not an indication of a busy hurricane season, although forecasts are calling for above normal activity.

Colorado State University is forecasting 23 named storms, including 11 hurricanes. That’s the highest number of hurricanes in CSU’s April forecast going back nearly 30 years. CSU will update its forecast June 11.

An average hurricane season has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.

“Given the combined hurricane-favorable signals of an extremely warm Atlantic and a likely developing La Niña, the forecast team has higher-than-normal confidence for an April outlook that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active,” CSU’s forecast notes.

There is an 80% chance of La Niña conditions for the peak of hurricane season, according to the Climate Prediction Center. La Niña reduces the wind shear in the Atlantic basin, allowing budding tropical cyclones to grow.

More: Hurricane season: High chances La Niña will be here for peak season. That's not good news

The University of Pennsylvania’s 2024 hurricane forecast was issued Wednesday and calls for a whopping 27 to 39 named storms. AccuWeather is forecasting 20 to 25 named storms.

The highest number of named storms on record came in 2020 with 30. The 2005 hurricane season had 28 named storms, followed by 21 in 2021 and 20 in 2023.

“Let’s not rush this hurricane season too quickly,” Kines said. “Every hurricane season over the past several years has overachieved, but what happens at the end of April is not an indicator of what is going to happen in August.”

Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate and weather, and has a certificate in weather forecasting from Penn State. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Early season system doesn't equal busy 2024 atlantic hurricane season