2016 NFL Preview: Are the Packers wasting Aaron Rodgers' prime?
Shutdown Corner is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per day in reverse order of our initial 2016 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on Aug. 6, the day before the Hall of Fame Game kicks off the preseason.
No. 6: GREEN BAY PACKERS
It seems like “Are the Green Bay Packers wasting Aaron Rodgers’ prime?” might become the new “Is Joe Flacco elite?” It could turn into our favorite NFL-related meme before we know it.
The Rodgers question is coming up more and more with each passing season. The headline to this post is tongue-in-cheek because the question itself is a bit crazy (and I want to see how many angry emails I get from people who didn’t read this paragraph). First of all, Rodgers is just 32 and his prime might last another seven or eight years. We have no idea, especially since other quarterbacks are playing at a high level well into their late 30s.
Also, nothing is being wasted.
The Packers are 80-39 in games Rodgers has started. The Packers won four straight NFC North titles, a streak that was snapped last year. They’ve been to the playoffs seven straight times. And they won Super Bowl XLV, of course. That’s a great run.
Super Bowl championships aren’t inevitable for a team with a great quarterback, or an inalienable right either. It’s really hard to win just one. There are 32 competitive and well-run organizations competing for that prize (fine, fine, like 28 or 29 well-run organizations). Other great quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and others have also been competing for Super Bowls during Rodgers’ career. Ask Tony Romo or Philip Rivers if it looks like Rodgers’ prime has been wasted.
The Packers have also had an inexplicable run of hard-luck playoff losses. Some people want to believe that all 50 Super Bowls were won by The Best Team in Football, but that’s not true. The best team doesn’t always win in a single-elimination tournament. Weird things happen. And they have for the Packers.
• In 2009, Rodgers had an unbelievable wild-card game at the Arizona Cardinals, sending it to overtime. In overtime, he was hit and somehow kicked a loose ball up into the hands of Karlos Dansby for an interception and a touchdown.
• In 2011, the 15-1 Packers got beat by a hot Giants team in their playoff opener. Not really bad luck, but it’s a great example that the best team doesn’t always win.
• In 2013, the Packers lost on a field goal on the last play of a home playoff game against the San Francisco 49ers, a game in which Rodgers was still limited after breaking his collarbone weeks before.
• In 2014, the Packers took on the cruelest loss of them all in the NFC championship game. If Morgan Burnett doesn’t inexplicably slide after his fourth-quarter interception at the Seattle Seahawks (and, to be fair, if Julius Peppers doesn’t tell him to slide), Rodgers and the Packers were likely going back to a Super Bowl. But as we know, Burnett slid like the game was over and everything fell apart after that, including a brutal muffed onside kick. Seattle won in overtime.
• In 2015, the Packers got really lucky to take the Cardinals to overtime, hitting a Hail Mary at the end of regulation. Then they lost in heartbreaking fashion again. A blown coverage led to a 75-yard play by Larry Fitzgerald in overtime and the Cardinals won. Maybe if the Packers won the coin toss, they’d have been going to the NFC title game.
Teams need to get lucky to win it all and luck hasn’t always been on Green Bay’s side. Though it works the other way too: The Packers needed some luck to make the playoffs in 2010, and they won a Super Bowl that year. But those who think Rodgers’ prime is being wasted probably also believed the weird notion that LeBron James’ legacy hinged on Game 7 of this year’s NBA Finals. Team sports are more complicated than just counting up rings at the end. You can be consistently great and still not win a handful of titles. You need to be great and have a lot of luck too … and you still might lose to other great players or teams. And there’s nothing wrong with 80-39, four division titles, seven playoff appearances and one ring.
And even though I spent the past 690 or so words telling you why the question at the top is goofy, well, it also feels like there should be a little more from Rodgers’ first eight seasons as a starter, right?
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I’ve written many times about how I disagree with general manager Ted Thompson’s aversion to free agency. Would the Denver Broncos have won Super Bowl 50 without free agents Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward, Peyton Manning, DeMarcus Ware, Evan Mathis and Emmanuel Sanders? Obviously not. Yet, Thompson is trying to conduct an experiment in which he’s trying to win by hardly ever using free agency. Winning in the NFL is hard enough; creating an unnecessary degree of difficulty by ignoring a key component to roster building is strange. Look at how close the Packers have been; maybe additions like Talib, Ward, Ware, Mathis or Sanders would have gotten Green Bay over the hump (to avoid answering your angry message — yes, I know the Packers have great outside linebackers and they would not have signed Ware, but you know exactly what I mean). If the Packers don’t win another title with Rodgers, I think there will be a lot of regrets.
While the Packers are patient, the outside world seems to be getting antsy about them and their Super Bowl “drought.” Even though last season Drew Brees won a passing title at 36, Tom Brady posted a 102.2 rating at 38 and Manning was a Super Bowl starter at 39, longevity like that isn’t guaranteed for Rodgers. You can look back on Brett Favre’s 16 Packers seasons, see one Super Bowl title and wonder if this is how Rodgers’ story will end up too.
The second half of last season makes the story more complicated. Starting on Nov. 1, the Packers were 4-6 in their final 10 regular-season games, and only a Hail Mary miracle at Detroit kept them from being 3-7. For the first time since his first season as Green Bay’s starter, Rodgers didn’t look like Superman. Whatever excuses we might use — his receivers were poor, the coaching staff seemed to use zero concepts to get them open, Eddie Lacy didn’t help much because he was out of shape — Rodgers deserves some blame and showed some troubling tendencies. It was weird to see him struggle. The Packers didn’t look like a Super Bowl contender.
Does that all get solved with Jordy Nelson back from a knee injury and Lacy in better shape? Maybe. But it will be nice for the Packers to see vintage Rodgers early in the season and for them to look like title contenders again, just to make sure.
Assuming last season was an anomaly, the Packers should be one of the best teams in the NFL again. Then they’ll hope to catch the breaks that haven’t always come their way in January. If not, it could be another season of Rodgers’ career passing without another Super Bowl. That wouldn’t mean everything is a waste. But we’re getting to a point in which the window will start to close.
On March 28, a miracle happened. The Packers signed a free agent! Tight end Jared Cook came aboard after disappointing with the St. Louis Rams, signing a modest one-year, $2.75 million deal. I like the signing. There’s no risk and I’m willing to buy Cook reviving his career under the “catching passes from Aaron Rodgers instead of Nick Foles” theory, as long as he gets healthy from foot surgery. Signing the right free agents can help. Cook should help at a position of need (taking away a once-in-a-lifetime Hail Mary, incumbent tight end Richard Rodgers averaged an impossibly low 7.8 yards per catch last season). See? It can be done.
The Packers didn’t sign much aside from Cook, or lose much either. Cornerback Casey Hayward is a good player but the Packers have drafted well at defensive back. First-round pick Kenny Clark should replace nose tackle B.J. Raji, who retired. Grade: C+
If you erase last Nov. 1 to Jan. 3 from your mind, the Packers look wonderful. They have looked like an elite team basically from 2009 until right now, excluding the 2013 games Aaron Rodgers missed and last season’s hiccup (and still won at Minnesota, Detroit and Oakland in that span and then won a playoff game at the Washington Redskins and took Arizona to overtime … not bad). If we offer a mulligan and assume that Rodgers plays like an MVP again, we’ve seen the Packers’ upside. And it’s good.
It has become accepted fact that Jordy Nelson’s absence was the main reason the Packers’ offense struggled. And the Packers had very little vertical game without Nelson. Randall Cobb showed he’s probably not suited to be a No. 1. Replacements like Davante Adams played well below a replacement level. With Nelson back, everyone assumes the Packers pick up where they left off in 2014. Is it that easy? Nelson is 31 and coming off ACL surgery. Nelson does everything well and his biggest value to the offense is stretching the field. If he loses even a little bit of that, maybe the Packers’ offense will still be lacking a bit.
Now we’ve seen what can happen if Aaron Rodgers is just good instead of playing like one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. For once Rodgers didn’t play nearly perfect football and the Packers slumped. There’s no reason to believe he’ll continue his 2015 bad habits like being tentative on some throws or looking to escape the pocket quicker than he has before, but it’s a little scary for Green Bay that so much of its success is wrapped up in one player performing at an otherworldly level.
Clay Matthews deserves a lot of credit for moving to inside linebacker and playing well when the Packers needed it. But he shouldn’t have been in that spot; you don’t move an elite pass rusher to a less valuable position on the defense. So the most important non-QB answer is twofold. First, it’s Matthews because he’s Green Bay’s defensive difference maker. And second, it’s whoever plays inside linebacker this season so Matthews doesn’t have to. The Packers need to figure out that spot, whether it’s with rookie Blake Martinez or holdover Sam Barrington (not to be predictable, but the Packers really could have used some free-agent veteran help at this spot). Just because Matthews can play inside linebacker doesn’t mean he should.
Cosell: “Aaron Rodgers is ridiculously gifted, that’s not even a question. But Aaron Rodgers, to me, is not a true rhythm quarterback the way we think of a Tom Brady or a Drew Brees … to me he’s kind of a ‘jazz beat’ quarterback. He’s a little off rhythm, and even when he’s at his absolute best he plays that way. But he’s so gifted he can play that way and be really good. At times though, the issue is that Aaron Rodgers got out of his own rhythm, which is different than a normal rhythm. That’s what I saw when I watched tape later in the season. I thought there were a lot of throws he left on the field later in the season … now whether Jordy Nelson brings all that back, it’s hard to say. But there’s no question Jordy Nelson makes everybody better.”
[Click here for Greg Cosell’s podcast previewing the Packers and the rest of the NFC North.]
From Yahoo’s Andy Behrens: “Aaron Rodgers was a disappointment to fantasy owners last season, despite the fact that he threw 31 touchdown passes and only eight interceptions. A down season for him is a career year for almost anyone else. Jordy Nelson will return to the mix in 2016, and, with any luck, we’ll see more Jeff Janis and less Davante Adams. So yes, you can expect Rodgers to reclaim top-three status at his position, fantasy-wise. And Eddie Lacy is reportedly in much better shape entering camp this year, so that’s great. Last season, Lacy’s estimated weight (890) exceeded his rushing yards (758).”
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Randall Cobb’s targets increased in 2015. He had 127 targets in 2014 and 129 last season. That’s what made his extreme drop in production even more troubling. Cobb’s receptions fell from 91 to 79, yards dropped from 1,287 to 829 and his touchdowns were cut in half, from 12 to six. His yards per catch went from 14.1 to 10.5. Yikes. Did his preseason shoulder injury linger all season? Did he struggle with more defensive attention, without Nelson on the field? Whatever the reason, the Packers need Cobb to rebound.
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF EDDIE LACY?
Last season was a mess for Lacy. We’ve all heard all about his struggles, and how we dropped weight this offseason to avoid that happening again. Lacy looks better, and he and the Packers are clearly sick of the subject. All that matters is Lacy returns to his 1,100-yard form from his first two seasons after a 758-yard dud last season.
When Lacy is right he’s critical for the Packers offense, providing balance against defenses that have to focus on slowing down the passing game. Even in a poor season, Lacy still had his moments. He’s just 26, has never been overworked and looks like he’s refocused and committed, so you’d expect Lacy to have a nice rebound. It’s a contract year for Lacy, so he should be fully motivated.
Nobody would be surprised if the offense was one of the best in the NFL again. The defense is good too as long as inside linebacker gets worked out, Julius Peppers doesn’t hit a wall at age 36 and the Packers find an answer at nose tackle. Whenever you have Aaron Rodgers you can win a Super Bowl, and that’s a realistic goal for this team.
We have to allow for the possibility that from here on out we’ll see more of the 2015 Aaron Rodgers than the 2011 Rodgers. Which isn’t bad, but it’s probably not enough to carry the Packers to a title either. Maybe if all the problems in the offense aren’t entirely fixed, it’ll look like the same disjointed mess we saw at times last season. There were some truly awful games from the offense, and it’s possible Jordy Nelson’s return doesn’t fix it all.
As I said in the Minnesota Vikings preview, I like the Vikings a lot but ranking the Packers ahead of them came down to trusting Aaron Rodgers more than Teddy Bridgewater. Whatever happened last season, I’m going to assume we’ll see MVP-level Rodgers in 2016. The track record is too strong. I think the Packers fall short of another Super Bowl appearance, but they’re also the kind of team that could get hot and pull off a few minor upsets to win it all.
32. Cleveland Browns
31. San Francisco 49ers
30. Tennessee Titans
29. San Diego Chargers
28. New Orleans Saints
27. Philadelphia Eagles
26. Atlanta Falcons
25. Miami Dolphins
24. Los Angeles Rams
23. Chicago Bears
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
21. Detroit Lions
20. Indianapolis Colts
19. Jacksonville Jaguars
18. Washington Redskins
17. Buffalo Bills
16. Baltimore Ravens
15. Oakland Raiders
14. New York Jets
13. New York Giants
12. Houston Texans
11. Dallas Cowboys
10. Minnesota Vikings
9. Kansas City Chiefs
8. Denver Broncos
7. Cincinnati Bengals
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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