The 2012 Republican Nomination - Who is in? Who is Out?
President Obama kicked off his 2012 re-election campaign last month. But who is he campaigning against? While none of the big guns in the Republican field have formally committed to running for their partyâs nomination next year, the Intrade market indicates some are almost certain to run, some are almost certain to not, and some are keeping everyone guessing.
There are no real surprises on this list of those who are expected to run. The market currently believes there is a 90.0% chance of Mitt Romney having another run at the nomination. There is a 96.0% probability of Tim Pawlenty formally entering the race and a 94.0% chance of Rick Santorum doing the same. And no Republican nomination contest would be complete without libertarian Ron Paul. There is a 90.0% probability that Paul will once again seek the nomination.
So who is out? We know for sure that John Thune and Haley Barbour are both out - neither intends to seek the nomination. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has also ruled himself out this time around. The market is bearish on Sarah Palin - currently there is a 35.0% chance of Palin running - and has all but counted out Rudy Giuliani and Rick Perry.
And then there are the maybes. While Mike Huckabee thinks about it the market gives him an even 50.0% chance of joining the race. Donald Trump continues to make noises but the market gives him a 47.0% chance of running. Things are a little more certain for Mitch Daniels (59.9%), Michelle Bachmann (60.0%) and Jon Huntsman (70.0%) however.
