Up to 2 inches of rain, severe weather possible through Tuesday in Milwaukee, SE Wisconsin

Get ready for a rainy start to the week, Milwaukee.

An initial wave of early morning Monday thunderstorms in Milwaukee came before small chances of severe weather occur this afternoon — and ahead of higher chances of inclement weather on Tuesday. While there's uncertainty in the severe weather occurring, the National Weather Service is forecasting up to 2 inches of rainfall between Monday and Tuesday as showers are projected to come in multiple rounds.

“For today specifically, we’ve had the morning round and now we’re going to see a break,” said Marcia Cronce, a meteorologist at the Milwaukee-Sullivan office of the NWS. “As long as this break becomes sunny, then these storms that will track over us midday, those could be severe.”

Monday’s system will rely on clouds to move out and sunshine to emerge to create instable conditions that lead to severe weather occurring, she said. Possible severe conditions include strong, damaging wind gusts and hail up to 1 inch in diameter.

The system is tracking from eastern and western Illinois and moving northeast into Wisconsin.

Cronce said that only a small area of southeastern Wisconsin, east of Interstate 90 and Interstate 39, is in the risk area, with it rated at a two out of five chance for severe weather.

On Tuesday, much more of Wisconsin is in conditions ripe for severe weather. Almost the entire bottom half of the state is in an enhanced risk, or three out of five, while counties, like Milwaukee, on Lake Michigan's shoreline are at two out of five.

That system is moving west to east, from eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and southeast Minnesota, Cronce said. Like today’s system, it is forecasted to bring storms in the morning to midday, but Cronce said there’s a chance that could not occur as well.

The initial storms and whether they occur is a pivot point in the day’s chances of severe weather, she said. If it storms heavily in the midday, Wisconsin may not see conditions arise for evening severe weather.

Tomorrow’s severe risk is rated at a three out of five. It brings chances of damaging winds, hail and potentially tornadoes.

“If it storms a lot and keeps the atmosphere mucky and cloudy, then we won’t be able to destabilize,” Cronce said. “The ingredients that can all come together are a little stronger tomorrow than they are today.”

Cronce said that, if severe weather occurs, it’s forecasted to occur between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m.

Wisconsin weather radar

Wisconsin weather warnings

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Milwaukee, southeast Wisconsin forecasted for rain, possible severe weather