Grammy Nomination Predictions: The Big Four Categories
When the Grammy nominations are announced on Friday, Sam Smith has a very good chance of showing up in each of the Big Four categories (Album, Record, and Song of the Year, and Best New Artist). He would be only the second male solo artist to receive a nomination in each of those categories (following Christopher Cross in 1980) and only the second British artist to achieve the sweep (following Amy Winehouse in 2007).
Let’s take a closer look at the Big Four categories.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Three albums seem like sure things to be nominated: Sam Smith's debut album, In the Lonely Hour; Beyoncé's fifth studio album, Beyoncé; and Ed Sheeran's sophomore album, x. Beyoncé is a longtime Grammy favorite (17 awards). Her album may get bonus points for its innovative, no build-up marketing strategy. Sheeran is fast becoming a Grammy favorite. He was nominated for Song of the Year two years ago and for Best New Artist last year.
Miranda Lambert's Platinum, which was voted Album of the Year by the Country Music Association, also has a good shot. It was Lambert’s first #1 album on the all-genre Billboard 200. It even put her on the cover of Rolling Stone. The panel of Grammy insiders that selects the final nominees in the Big Four categories usually strives for diversity in its picks. Lambert is the strongest country representative.
Ariana Grande's sophomore album, My Everything, may round out the field. The album, which has spawned three top 10 hits, consolidated her 2013 breakout success. (The only potential problem: I already have two pop albums — Smith’s and Sheeran’s — in the finals. Will the panelists want to have three?)
That could also work against the Frozen soundtrack, which is the best-selling album so far this year. Another factor working against Frozen: recent Grammy history. In the past 20 years, just two soundtracks have received Album of the Year nominations — Waiting to Exhale and O Brother, Where Art Thou?. Both of those soundtracks were overseen by producers with long lists of album credits — Babyface and T Bone Burnett, respectively. By contrast, Frozen is the work of movie music pros who aren’t as well known in recording circles.
U2 has a strong track record in this category: Four of the band’s last eight studio albums were nominated for Album of the Year; two of them won. But the album never recovered from the iTunes gaffe — where the album was placed in iTunes users’ music libraries without their consent. That criticism seemed overblown, but it left a mark.
If the panel wants to include a rock (or rock-ish) album, there are many other choices. Among them: The Black Keys' Turn Blue, Beck's Morning Phase, Coldplay's Ghost Stories, Bruce Springsteen's High Hopes, Paul McCartney's New, Jack White's Lazaretto, Arcade Fire’s Reflektor, and Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers’ Hypnotic Eye.
Three rap albums — Eminem's The Marshall Mathers LP 2, ScHoolboy Q's Oxymoron, and Iggy Azalea's The New Classic — are serious contenders. Eminem has been nominated in this category three times.
Two traditional pop albums — Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga's Cheek to Cheek and Barbra Streisand's Partners — have a shot at a nomination. But no trad pop album has been nominated for Album of the Year since Bennett’s MTV Unplugged controversially won the 1994 award.
Other top candidates include Katy Perry's PRISM, Pharrell Williams's GIRL, Lana Del Rey's Ultraviolence, Toni Braxton & Babyface's Love, Marriage & Divorce, and Billie Joe + Norah's Foreverly.
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Sam Smith's gospel-tinged ballad “Stay With Me” is sure to be nominated. Meghan Trainor's “All About That Bass,” which calls for women to accept their bodies even if they don't conform to society's ideal, may be Smith's strongest competition.
Taylor Swift's kiss-country-goodbye pop smash “Shake It Off” also has a very good shot. Swift's "You Belong With Me" and "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" were nominated in this category..
Ariana Grande's “Problem” (featuring Iggy Azalea) is also likely to make the finals. It would be only the second all-female collaboration in Grammy history to receive a Record of the Year nom. The first was “The Boy is Mine” by Brandy & Monica in 1998. (Two other all-female collabos have a shot this year: Azalea’s “Fancy” (featuring Charli XCX) and “Bang Bang” by Jessie J, Grande, and Nicki Minaj.)
KONGOS' alternative rock hit “Come With Me Now,” which became a leftfield pop hit, may round out the field.
"Let It Go" from Frozen has a chance to become the first Oscar-winner for Best Song to be nominated for Record and/or Song of the Year since Eminem's “Lose Yourself” was nominated in both categories in 2003. I tend to think that Idina Menzel's hit single will just miss in the Record category, but that the song will come through in the Song category.
Coldplay's “A Sky Full of Stars” (which was co-produced and co-written by Avicii) is also a strong candidate. The band won in this category with 2003’s “Clocks” and was nominated with 2008’s “Viva La Vida.”
Four other hit collabos are in the mix: “The Monster” by Eminem featuring Rihanna, “Drunk in Love” by Beyoncé featuring Jay Z, “Say Something” by A Great Big World & Christina Aguilera, and “Dark Horse” by Katy Perry featuring Juicy J.
Other possibilities include Hozier's “Take Me to Church,” Sia's “Chandelier,” Ed Sheeran's “Don't,” Mr. Probz's “Waves,” Nico & Vinz's “Am I Wrong,” Aloe Blacc's “The Man,” the Black Keys' “Fever,” MAGIC!'s “Rude,” and Tove Lo's “Habits (Stay High).”
Three big hits that would have had a great shot at nominations were released and entered last year: Pharrell Williams's “Happy,” John Legend's “All of Me,” and Bastille's “Pompeii.” Live recordings of all three songs were entered this year, but that's not quite the same. (None of these songs are eligible for Song of the Year.)
SONG OF THE YEAR
For the most part, the same works are under consideration for both Record of the Year (which honors a specific recording) and Song of the Year (which honors the song itself). With that in mind, I can see the final five being “Stay With Me,” “All About That Bass,” “Let It Go,” “Shake It Off,” and “A Sky Full of Stars.”
BEST NEW ARTIST
Sam Smith is the clear frontrunner. He is vying to become the first openly gay artist to be named Best New Artist. Few were surprised when Boy George later came out, but he played it coy in interviews at the height of his success with Culture Club (the 1983 winners). Tracy Chapman (the 1988 winner) has always kept her private life private.
In the past year, the a cappella group Pentatonix has cracked the top 10 with a full-length album and three EPs. Two other mostly a cappella groups have received nominations in this category: The baroque-accented the Swingle Singers (the 1963 winners) and the gospel-rooted Take 6 (nominees in 1988).
Iggy Azalea also looks good for a nomination. She would be only the third female hip-hop artist to be nominated in this category, following Lauryn Hill, the 1998 winner, and Nicki Minaj.
5 Seconds of Summer, which, like Azalea, hails from Australia, is probably also headed for a nom. Teen faves have a mixed record in this category. Backstreet Boys, Hanson, the Jonas Brothers, and Justin Bieber were nominated. *NSYNC and One Direction weren’t.
KONGOS may round out the field on the strength of its quirky hit “Come With Me Now.”
Aloe Blacc heads the list of likely runners-up. He followed his uncredited featured role on Avicii's “Wake Me Up!” with a top 10 hit of his own, “The Man.”
Other strong candidates include Bastille, MAGIC!, Childish Gambino, Tove Lo, August Alsina, Echosmith, A Great Big World, Jhené Aiko, Fifth Harmony, Martin Garrix, and MKTO.
Note: Three artists who would have been strong contenders, Meghan Trainor, Hozier, and ScHoolboy Q, aren’t eligible. To be considered in this category, an artist has to have released a full-length album or an EP with at least five songs. Trainor’s EP Title has just four songs. Hozier’s debut album was released after the close of the eligibility year. (His two earlier EPs were also four-song releases.) And an artist can’t have received a previous Grammy nomination. ScHoolboy Q received a nom last year as a featured artist on Macklemore & Ryan Lewis's The Heist.
Follow Paul on Google+
