Grammy Nomination Predictions: Pop & Dance
With the 2014 Grammy nominations being announced this Friday, Dec. 5, it’s time to deep-dive into the individual categories and predict who will come out on top. Here’s a look at which pop stars have a shot this year.
BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM
As likely finalists in the overall Album of the Year category, Sam Smith's In the Lonely Hour, Ed Sheeran's x, and Ariana Grande's My Everything are sure things here.
Smith’s debut album has climbed as high as #2 on the Billboard 200. The Sheeran and Grande albums, both sophomore releases, both reached #1.
Two other #1 albums — Coldplay's Ghost Stories and Katy Perry's PRISM — will probably round out the field. This would be Perry’s second album in a row to be nominated in this category. (Curiously, Perry has yet to bring home her first Grammy, despite 11 previous nominations.)
Coldplay has had an interesting Grammy history. The band’s first two studio albums won for Best Alternative Music Album. Its fourth album, Viva La Vida or Death and All His Friends, won for Best Rock Album. Now its sixth album is vying for a nomination for Best Pop Vocal Album. Has the band’s music changed that much, or has the music scene shifted around it?
Miley Cyrus's image-changing Bangerz debuted at #1 in October 2013 — in the first week of the eligibility year. The album will definitely get some votes, though probably not enough to make the finals.
Lady Gaga won in this category for 2010’s The Fame Monster. She’s a contender this year with ARTPOP, which debuted at #1 in November 2013, but then faded quickly. (Even if Gaga falls short here, she and Tony Bennett are certain to be nominated for Best Traditional Pop Vocal Album for Cheek to Cheek. See below.)
Kelly Clarkson is the only artist ever to win twice in this category (which dates back to 1994). She took the award for her albums Breakaway and Stronger. She’s a contender this year with her holiday album, Wrapped in Red.
If enough voters let their kids fill out their ballots, 5 Seconds of Summer's eponymous album and One Direction's Midnight Memories might have a chance. (That may help explain how Justin Bieber's My World 2.0 got a nomination in this category four years ago.) Both of these albums debuted at #1.
Three other #1 albums are in the running: Maroon 5's V, Lana Del Rey's Ultraviolence, and Sia’s 1000 Forms of Fear.
Also possible: Stevie Nicks's 24 Karat Gold — Songs From the Vault, Pentatonix's PTX Vol. 3, Shakira's Shakira, and Colbie Caillat's Gypsy Heart.
Taylor Swift's 1989 and One Direction’s FOUR were released after the close of the eligibility year on Sept. 30.
BEST DANCE/ELECTRONIC MUSIC ALBUM
Skrillex, who won back-to-back awards in this category with a pair of EPs, Scary Monsters and Nice Sprites and Bangarang, will probably be back in the running with his first full-length album, Recess. If he wins again, he’ll become the first act to take this award three times since it was introduced in 2004. He’s currently tied with The Chemical Brothers and Daft Punk, with two wins each.
Deadmau5, the Crystal Method, and Kaskade were all nominated in this category with their two most recent albums. That bodes well for Deadmau5’s seventh studio album, While(1<2); the Crystal Method’s fifth studio album, The Crystal Method; and Kaskade’s EP Redux.
Martin Garrix's first EP, Gold Skies, is another likely nominee. “Animals,” an instrumental hit by the Dutch DJ/producer, topped the dance club play chart and reached the top 30 on the pop chart. The track was nominated for the MTV Clubland Award at the VMAs.
Clean Bandit’s debut album, New Eyes, spawned the international hit “Rather Be” (featuring Jess Glynne). The song topped the U.K. chart for four weeks in February and crossed the pond to hit #1 on the U.S. dance airplay chart and the top 10 on the U.S. pop chart.
Three other albums spawned #1 hits on the dance club play or airplay charts and thus have a chance here. Tiesto's fifth studio album, A Town Called Paradise, gave us “Red Lights.” Basement Jaxx's seventh album, Junto, spawned “Never Say Never.” Royksopp & Robyn's collabo EP Do It Again yielded the title track. Robyn has been nominated twice in this category; Tiesto, once.
Steve Aoki was a finalist in this category for his 2012 debut album, Wonderland, which bodes well for his sophomore album, Neon Future I. Cut Copy was nominated for its most recent album, Zonoscope, which is a good sign for its fourth studio album, Free Your Mind.
BEST TRADITIONAL POP VOCAL ALBUM
Barbra Streisand hasn’t won a Grammy since she took the 1986 award for Best Pop Vocal Performance, Female for The Broadway Album. Her current album, Partners, is a smash hit, but to win it has to get past the Tony Bennett/Lady Gaga collaboration, Cheek to Cheek. While both albums debuted at #1, Streisand’s album has been a substantially bigger hit.
Bennett has won 11 times in this category (which was introduced in 1991). Bennett and Streisand have gone head-to-head five times in this category. Bennett has won every time.
Gaga is also a Grammy favorite. She was the first artist since the Beatles to receive Album of the Year nominations three years running. Gaga’s debut album, The Fame, won for Best Dance/Electronic Album. Her subsequent EP, The Fame Monster, won for Best Pop Vocal Album. If Cheek to Cheek wins here, she’ll become the first artist to win in all three categories.
Annie Lennox's collection of standards, Nostalgia, is also a surefire nominee. She could even conceivably win, if Streisand and Bennett split the votes of old-guard voters and Lennox corrals all the younger voters.
Battling for the two remaining slots: Betty Buckley's Ghostlight, which was produced by T Bone Burnett; Barry Manilow's Night Songs; and four holiday albums: Seth MacFarlane's Holiday for Swing, Johnny Mathis's Sending You a Little Christmas, Susan Boyle's Home for Christmas, and Dave Koz & Friends' The 25th of December.
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