FEINBERG FORECAST: Scott's First Projections Since the Oscar Noms and Golden Globes
Every week through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, as well as a key for the various colors and acronyms that appear throughout them, scroll to the bottom of this post.)
NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK'S FORECAST:
- On the morning of Jan. 10, the Academy announced its 85th Oscar nominations. I identified the old records that fell and the snubs that baffled, and then identified the most important clues that we can derive about the Academy's thoughts from the nominations. Meanwhile, my colleagues talked to the nominees -- and passed along the bleepable reaction of one producer to the snub of her film's director.
- On the evening of Jan. 10, the Broadcast Film Critics Association, of which I am a voting member, hosted the 18th Critics' Choice Awards. We passed along the names of the winners, and I talked about the reception at the ceremony of the three highest-profile directors who had been snubbed by the Academy in the morning but still showed up at night.
- On Jan. 11, those three directors and others associated with many of the year's best film and TV shows attended the 13th AFI Awards luncheon, after which I provided a summary of the goings on.
- Also on Jan. 11, the American Cinema Editors, the union/guild of film editors, announced its nominees for the 63rd annual ACE Eddie Awards, which will be held on Feb. 16. There were five films nominated in each of several categories, including best edited feature film (drama), best edited feature film (comedy or musical), best edited animated feature film and best edited documentary feature film.
- On Jan. 12, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association held its 38th LAFCA awards ceremony, and we were in the room taking note of all of the action, gossip and chatter.
- On Jan. 13, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association hosted the 70th Golden Globe Awards. We reported on all of the winners, and I got the lowdown backstage, where I posed questions to best original song winner Adele (Skyfall) and Cecil B. DeMille Award winner Jodie Foster. But the night's big winner might well be a film that lost all but one of the seven Globes for which it was nominated, Lincoln, since it was introduced and endorsed by former president Bill Clinton -- after he received a lengthy standing ovation. We later learned that the telecast's ratings were way up.
- And, on Jan. 15, I hit the streets of Los Angeles and got the public's views about all of the above -- as well as their translations of Jodie Foster's cryptic Globes speech and pronunciation of Les Miserables!
THIS WEEK'S FORECAST:
1. Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, CAS
2. Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, R, trailer)
AFI, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, PGA, SAG, WGA, FI
3. Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
HFPA, AFI, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, BAFTA, ADG
4. Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, PG, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, VES
5. Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, R, trailer)
NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, AFI, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, CAS
6. Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, SAG, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, CAS
7. Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, BFCA, PGA, ADG
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, BFCA, PGA, IPA, FI
9. Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, PG-13, trailer)
1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
HFPA, BFCA, IPA, DGA
2. David O. Russell
IPA, BFCA, FI
3. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
HFPA, BFCA, DGA, BAFTA
4. Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
5. Michael Haneke (Amour)
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
HFPA, BFCA, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, BAFTA, SAG
2. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
NBR, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA, SAG, FI
3. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA, SAG
4. Denzel Washington (Flight)
HFPA, BFCA, IPA, SAG
5. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA