Our 2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Now that Oscar’s drunk cousin has gone home (just kidding, we love you, Golden Globes), it’s time to focus on the main attraction. The nominations for the 88th Academy Awards will be announced bright and early Thursday morning. (You can watch them live here.)

As always, there are more deserving candidates than there are ballot slots. But after a particularly stellar year at the movies, this year’s crop of nominations will be hard-earned. Here are our predictions for all the major categories:

(Predicted winners in bold.)

BEST PICTURE

There could be anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees in the top race. Since the latest rule change in how that number is determined, there have been nine nominees three times and eight nominees once (last year). So I’ll go with nine here: Spotlight, The Revenant, The Martian, and The Big Short are virtual locks. It supposedly looks very good for Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Carol, Room, and — praise Imperator Furiosa — Mad Max: Fury Road. But a film has to get five percent of the first place votes to qualify here, and of those films, I don’t know if Steven Spielberg’s Cold War drama Spies has the passionate support to make it; it’s a film that feels ripe for a snubbing.

Instead, I’m going to go with the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton. It’s deserving, but it certainly doesn’t hurt its cause that last year’s Oscars were so lacking in diversity that they spawned the Twitter hashtag #OscarsSoWhite. If a 10th film does make the cut, look for it to be a fan favorite/box-office hit like Inside Out or Star Wars: The Force Awakens or one of those surprise Producer’s Guild noms, Ex Machina or Sicario.

My Prediction:

The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Other Contenders:

Bridge of Spies
Creed
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Joy
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Steve Jobs

BEST DIRECTOR

This is one of the tightest Best Director races in years. Do you give it to Tom McCarthy (who helmed the crackling journalism thriller Spotlight), Ridley Scott (who delivered his best sci-fi film in more than three decades with The Martian and has never won an Oscar), George Miller (who defied all expectations and knocked our socks off with Mad Max: Fury Road), or returning champ Alejandro González Iñárritu (who followed-up last year’s technically brilliant Birdman with the intense The Revenant)? All four should get nominated.

Then there’s that fifth slot. The Director’s Guild gave it to Adam McKay for the comedic drama The Big Short, and you also have marquee names like Spielberg, Quentin Tarantino, and David O. Russell in the mix. I think it will go to Todd Haynes for his understated, alluring work on Carol — it would mark his second nomination and first since 2002’s Far From Heaven. (Side note: A year after Ava DuVernay was famously passed over for Selma in the Director race, this year there’s not a single female director in the conversation, which speaks to a larger issue Hollywood badly needs to repair.)

My Prediction:

Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Todd Haynes, Carol

Other Contenders:

Lenny Abrahamson, Room
John Crowley, Brooklyn
F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton
Adam McKay, The Big Short
David O. Russell, Joy
Steven Spielberg, Bride of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

BEST ACTOR

The ceremony is still seven weeks away, but at this point, I would bet all the bears in the world that Leonardo DiCaprio will win his first Oscar for The Revenant. He is the surest thing among all acting nominees, so we all better get used to him making speeches.

In the honor-just-to-be-nominated camp you’ve got Matt Damon (The Martian), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), and last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl). Then it gets interesting. Though Trumbo received middling reviews, Bryan Cranston has become a steady presence in the awards race for his dynamite portrayal of the titular screenwriter, racking up SAG and Golden Globe nominations. He’ll likely make the cut over Johnny Depp (as Whitey Bulger in Black Mass), who some thought was a lock to win Best Actor in the early fall, but who has admitted he doesn’t really care for the idea of winning an Oscar, anyway.

My Prediction:

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Contenders:

Michael Caine, Youth
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Will Smith, Concussion

BEST ACTRESS

Like Best Actor, there doesn’t appear to be all that much drama in the lead actress race, either. At this point, it looks like Brie Larson will be joining Leo on stage a lot over the next seven weeks for her devastating performance as a young mother held captive in Room. If she has any competition for female performance of the year, I’d say it’s Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl. But here’s the thing: It’s unknown whether or not Vikander will be voted in as a lead or supporting actress (or worse, cancel herself out), which is kind of ridiculous considering she has more screen time than Eddie Redmayne in the movie. (Rooney Mara faces a similar dilemma with Carol.)

If the two of them make it, I’m fairly confident they’ll be joined by Brooklyn’s Saoirse Ronan, Joy’s Jennifer Lawrence, and Carol’s Cate Blanchett. If Vikander is instead voted into the Supporting race, that leaves the door open for a bubble contender like veteran actress Charlotte Rampling (45 Years), who would be looking at her very first Oscar nom.

My Prediction:

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Other Contenders:

Emily Blunt, Sicario
Rooney Mara, Carol
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This one is the hardest acting category to predict, in large part due to the surprising lack of recognition so far for Spotlight’s two ensemble standouts, Mark Ruffalo and Michael Keaton. Amazingly, they were left out of both the Golden Globe and Screen Actor’s nominations, but it’s possible their snubbings could galvanize support for them here. They could also be canceling each other out. I side with BAFTA, though, and think Ruffalo is an easy choice to represent here.

He’d join the two early favorites in this category, Sylvester Stallone (who just won a Golden Globe for Creed) and little-known veteran actor Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies). Most pundits are figuring on Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) as a definite and then either Christian Bale (The Big Short), Paul Dano (Love & Mercy) or Michael Shannon (99 Homes) to round out the top five. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see all three surpassed by Tom Hardy, who had a helluva year (see also: Mad Max and Legend) and could benefit from The Revenant’s current momentum.

My Prediction:

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Other Contenders:

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Jacob Tremblay, Room

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Again, this category is muddled by the possibility that Alicia Vikander might land in the lead-actress race instead. The Weinstein Co. did give us some clarity on its pair of Carol love interests by publicizing that they would campaign for Cate Blanchett in Best Actress and Rooney Mara in this category. It might not be fair — the movie is called Carol, however, Mara’s Therese has more screen time — but at least we know where we stand.

Regardless, Mara is in, as are Jennifer Jason Leigh (for that bloody turn in The Hateful Eight) and Golden Globe winner Kate Winslet (as the moral center of Steve Jobs). Assuming voters do the right thing and recognize Vikander in Best Actress, I’d see the last two spots going to SAG nominees Helen Mirren (Trumbo) and Rachel McAdams (Spotlight). Jane Fonda also has buzz for Youth, but she’s only in one scene.

My Prediction:

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Other Contenders:

Joan Allen, Room
Jane Fonda, Youth
Kristen Stewart, Cloud of Sils Maria
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (or The Danish Girl, but let’s not do that)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Most of the Best Picture heavyweights fall in the adapted category this year, so the adapted race has a bit of a Wild Wild West vibe. Spotlight is a shoo-in, but after that we could see four films in this category that didn’t register for Oscar’s top prize. Inside Out probably has the inside track, followed closely by The Hateful Eight (or anything Quentin Tarantino writes). It would be great to see Amy Schumer’s breakout Trainwreck crack the top five, as broad comedies are so rarely recognized by the Academy.

My Prediction:

Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, and Joel Coen, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, and Josh Cooley, Inside Out
Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight
Amy Schumer, Trainwreck

Other Contenders:

Alex Garland, Ex Machina
David O. Russell, Joy
Taylore Sheridan, Sicario
Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff, Straight Outta Compton

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Here, however, we’ve got a surplus of worthy scripts battling it out. Likely Best Picture nominees The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, and Room should all make the cut. But that would necessitate leaving out Aaron Sorkin’s latest dazzling display of verbosity in Steve Jobs, even if the film itself didn’t click with audiences. If Jobs does indeed do the job then it’s likely at the expense of love stories Brooklyn or Carol.

My Prediction:

Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short
Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
Drew Goodard, The Martian
Emma Donoghue, Room
Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs

Other Contenders:

Phyllis Nagy, Carol
George Miller, Brendan McCarthy, and Nico Lathouris, Mad Max: Fury Road
Mark L. Smith and Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
John McNamara, Trumbo

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Considering it’s also in the running for Best Picture, Disney-Pixar’s Inside Out already owns this category. Where it gets interesting is whether Disney’s other big ‘toon, The Good Dinosaur, makes the big bang. Most pundits say yes, but the film wasn’t unanimously adored, and given the Academy’s recent history in this category (with nominations for artier films like Song of the Sea, The Wind Rises, and A Cat in Paris), I could see Dino edged out by the likes of Anomalisa, Shaun the Sheep, and The Prophet.

My Prediction:

Anomalisa
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
The Prophet
Shaun the Sheep Movie

Other Contenders:

The Good Dinosaur
Minions

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Best Documentary is always an ultra-competitive category; this year there were 15 finalists all well worth the watch. Amy, the heartbreaking Amy Winehouse story; The Look of Silence, the horrifying follow-up to Act of Killing about brutalities in Indonesia in the 1960s; and the scientology exposé Going Clear are the three clear-cut favorites. After those there’s the stirring Cartel Land. And after that… get out your dartboard.

My Prediction:

Amy
Cartel Land
Going Clear
Listen to Me Marlon
The Look of Silence

Other Contenders:

3 ½ Minutes 10 Bullets
He Named Me Malala
The Hunting Ground
What Happened Miss Simone?
Where to Invade Next

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Son of Saul became the first film from Hungary to win Best Foreign-Language Film at the Golden Globes on Sunday. It could follow suit at the Oscars (though it wouldn’t be the first Hungarian film to win there, that title belongs to 1981’s Mephisto). The Holocaust drama is the easy favorite, and from there the picture gets murkier. But I’ll spin the globe and go with entries from Denmark (A War), France (Mustang), Germany (Labyrinth of Lies), and Ireland (Viva, which it should be noted is in Spanish).

My Prediction:

Labyrinth of Lies
Mustang
Son of Saul
Viva
A War

Other Contenders:

The Brand New Testament
Embrace of the Serpent