Grammy Predictions: Swift, ‘Uptown Funk’ Seem Grammy-Bound

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Expect Grammy voters to “share the wealth” this year. When the Grammys are handed out on Feb. 15, no artist is likely to walk off with more than one of the “Big Four” awards. This would be the first time in six years that those high-profile prizes have been dispersed so widely.

Let’s handicap each of the “Big Four” categories and 10 other prominent races. In each category, I list the nominees in descending order of their likelihood of winning.

Album of the Year

Taylor Swift’s 1989 was way out front until late in the year, when the race tightened. For one thing, Adele’s historic success upstaged Swift, denting her chief asset — a sense that Taylor had simply owned the year.

Swift’s chief competitors are Alabama Shakes’ Sound & Color and Kendrick Lamar’s To Pimp a Butterfly. Alabama Shakes could easily win. Three of the last five Album of the Year winners (Arcade Fire’s The Suburbs, Mumford & Sons’ Babel, and Beck’s Morning Phase) were alternative or alternative-ish.

Lamar amassed more total nominations than any other artist this year (11, four more than runners-up Swift and the Weeknd). But many Grammy voters are resistant to rap. To Pimp a Butterfly would be just the third hip-hop album to win Album of the Year. The first two were Lauryn Hill’s The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill and OutKast’s Speakerboxxx/The Love Below. Both of those albums generated #1 singles (OutKast’s album spawned two). Lamar’s album hasn’t come close to doing that. For all the critical acclaim and media attention it has gotten, I don’t see it winning.

The two remaining contenders are Chris Stapleton’s Traveller and the Weeknd’s Beauty Behind the Madness. Stapleton already had his coronation at the CMA Awards in November. The Weeknd has a better shot in other categories.

Bet on: Taylor Swift’s 1989. This would make Swift the first female artist to win twice in this category for her own albums. She won here six years ago with Fearless.

Record of the Year

“Uptown Funk” by Mark Ronson featuring Bruno Mars was the year’s top-selling song for a reason. It’s an irresistible throwback to the R&B sound of the 1980s. It sounds like it could have been produced by Grammy favorites Jimmy Jam and Terry Lewis (who were nominated for Producer of the Year a record 11 times). And Grammy voters love Mars. This is his fifth nomination in this category (his fourth as a lead or featured artist).

The Weeknd’s “Can’t Feel My Face” is probably the strongest challenger to “Uptown Funk.” The smash is very reminiscent of Michael Jackson, who won this award 32 years ago with “Beat It.” Also nominated: Ed Sheeran’s “Thinking Out Loud,” Swift’s “Blank Space,” and D'Angelo and the Vanguard’s “Really Love.”

Bet on: “Uptown Funk” by Mark Ronson featuring Bruno Mars. Ronson first won in this category eight years ago for producing Amy Winehouse’s “Rehab.”

Song of the Year

Sheeran was first nominated in this category three years ago for “The A Team,” which was a hit, but hardly a smash. The graceful ballad “Thinking Out Loud” was a smash (and an instant classic). That’s got to make it the frontrunner.

The other nominees are Little Big Town’s provocative hit “Girl Crush” (which won the CMA Award for Song of the Year); “Blank Space”; the Wiz Khalifa featuring Charlie Puth megahit “See You Again” (which is the first film song in 12 years to be nominated for Song of the Year); and Lamar’s “Alright.”
“Girl Crush” will almost certainly win for Best Country Song; “Alright” for Best Rap Song.

Bet on: “Thinking Out Loud” by Ed Sheeran & Amy Wadge, songwriters

Best New Artist

Meghan Trainor has long been viewed as the frontrunner, but she was passed over for noms in other categories where she was eligible (Best Pop Vocal Album, Best Pop Solo Vocal Performance). By contrast, fellow nominees Sam Hunt and James Bay were nominated for album honors in their respective fields. So this is going to be tight. “Like I’m Gonna Lose You,” Trainor’s current hit duet with John Legend (who won in this category 10 years ago), may have clinched it for her. The other nominees are Tori Kelly and Courtney Barnett.

Bet on: Meghan Trainor. The 22-year old is vying to become the first female pop singer to win in this category since Adele seven years ago.

Here are quick predictions in 10 other key categories…

Best Pop Solo Performance

Remember when Tom Cruise lip-synched to the Weeknd’s “Can’t Feel My Face” on The Tonight Show? That suggests how big a splash this #1 smash made in pop culture. (This is the most competitive performance category on the Grammy ballot this year. Three of the five nominees are also up for Record of the Year.) Also nominated: Sheeran’s “Thinking Out Loud,” Swift’s “Blank Space,” Ellie Goulding’s “Love Me Like You Do,” and Kelly Clarkson’s “Heartbeat Song.”

Best Dance/Electronic Album

Skrillex and Diplo Present Jack Ü is out front. The album spawned a top 10 hit, “Where Are Ü Now” (with Justin Bieber). This would be Skrillex’s third award in this category, which would constitute a new Grammy record. (Skrillex is currently tied for most wins in the category with the Chemical Brothers.) Skrillex’s collaborator, Diplo, is nominated for Producer of the Year, Non-Classical. Also nominated: Jamie xx’s In Colour, the Chemical Brothers’ Born in the Echoes, Disclosure’s Caracal, and Caribou’s Our Love.

Best Metal Performance

Slipknot are probably headed for their second win in this category with “Custer.” The band won 10 years ago for “Before I Forget.” (Slipknot are nominated for Best Rock Album for the chart-topping album .5: The Gray Chapter, which gives tem an edge in this subordinate category.) Also nominated: Sevendust’s “Thank You,” August Burns Red’s “Identity,” Lamb of God’s “512,” and Ghost’s “Cirice.”

Best Alternative Music Album

Alabama Shakes’ sophomore album, Sound & Color, has a lock on this award. It was the band’s first #1 album. (This will be something of a consolation prize if the band loses Album of the Year.) Also nominated: Björk’s Vulnicura, Tame Impala’s Currents, Wilco’s Star Wars, and My Morning Jacket’s The Waterfall.

Best R&B Album

D'Angelo and the Vanguard are out front with Black Messiah, which was D'Angelo’s third studio album; his first in nearly 15 years. The album contains “Really Love,” which was only a minor hit (#43 on the R&B/Hip-Hop Songs chart), but is nonetheless up for Record of the Year. D'Angelo won in this category with his last studio album, Voodoo. He would become only the second male artist to win twice in this category — following Legend. Also nominated: Leon Bridges's Coming Home, Jazmine Sullivan’s Reality Show, Charlie Wilson’s Forever Charlie, and Audra Day’s Cheers to the Fall.

Best Urban Contemporary Album

The Weeknd is a cinch to win for his second studio album, Beauty Behind the Madness. The album logged three weeks at #1 and spawned two #1 hits, “Can’t Feel My Face” and “The Hills.” Also nominated: Miguel’s Wildheart, The Internet’s Ego Death, Kehlani’s You Should Be Here, and Lianne La Havas's Blood.

Best Rap Album

It has to be Lamar’s third studio album, To Pimp a Butterfly. (This will help make up for Lamar’s controversial loss in this category two years ago to Macklemore & Ryan Lewis.) To Pimp a Butterfly spent its first two weeks at #1. Also nominated: Drake’s If You’re Reading This It’s Too Late, Nicki Minaj’s The Pinkprint, Dr. Dre’s Compton, and J. Cole’s 2014 Forest Hills Drive.

Best Country Solo Performance

Stapleton’s “Traveller” is out front. His album of the same name — his first solo release — is up for Album of the Year. But you can never count out Carrie Underwood, who is nominated for “Little Toy Guns.” She has won here in two of the last three years. Also nominated: Keith Urban’s “John Cougar, John Deere, John 3:16,” Lee Ann Womack’s “Chances Are,” and Cam’s “Burning House.”

Best Song Written for Visual Media

“Glory,” which won an Oscar for Best Song last year, will probably edge out “Til It Happens to You,” which is most likely headed for an Oscar this year. Both songs focus on social issues. “Glory,” from Selma, addresses the Civil Rights Movement; “Til It Happens to You,” from the campus rape documentary The Hunting Ground, deals with the pain of sexual assault. Also nominated in this red-hot category: “See You Again” from Furious 7 and a pair of songs from Fifty Shades of Grey, “Earned It (Fifty Shades of Grey)” and “Love Me Like You Do."

Best Music Video

The Grammys will probably second the VMAs’ choice for Video of the Year: "Bad Blood” by Swift featuring Lamar. The big-budget video had big-screen production values. Also nominated: Lamar’s “Alright,” Pharrell Williams’s “Freedom,” A$AP Rocky’s “LSD,” and the Dead Weather’s “I Feel Love (Every Million Miles).”