Our Thelma Adams dishes with Gold Derby founder Tom O’Neil in their first podcast of the Oscar season

Jonathan Crow
The Reel Breakdown

"Even though there's been a lot of buzz for 'Les Miz,' I'm an 'Argo'-naut at this point in terms of Best Picture," our Thelma Adams told Awards poobah Tom O'Neil in a podcast chat with his site, Gold Derby. "Because 'Silver Linings Playbook' hasn't played yet, we don't really know the roll-out. I would say that those two are the front-runners."

Why so hot on "Argo?" It scored at the box office, has great word of mouth, and proves without a doubt that popular star Ben Affleck is a bankable director. And it doesn't hurt that Hollywood saves the day in this fact-based thriller set during the Iran hostage crisis.

But don't expect Affleck to carry the day against Daniel Day-Lewis as Honest Abe "Lincoln" in the Best Actor category. Day-Lewis holds the frontrunner spot among leading actors, but O'Neil has doubts that the picture will come out on top, or that director Steven Spielberg has a lock. Hey, O'Neil said, we know how the movie ends!

Meanwhile, the pair agreed that when the Academy expanded the number of Best Picture nominees to a possible 10 after "The Dark Knight" got snubbed in 2009, the change didn't fix the bias against blockbusters. The proof: The odds remain against big-budget popular studio films like "The Dark Knight Rises," "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey," and "The Avengers" bringing home the top prize.

Have a listen to the feisty and informed insider chat between Adams and O'Neil, who have been predicting the Oscars together since the dawn of Goldderby.com in 1999.

Check out the podcast here.