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Oscar Patrol: Best Original Screenplay, 14 Weeks To Go Until We Have Any Idea What an Original Screenplay Is

The Projector

We're still 14 weeks away from nominations coming out, which is ridiculously early, but it's really early to start differentiating between Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay. The Academy always does little tricks on this, and you never know what they're gonna put in each category. Right now, for example, "J. Edgar" is in this spot, but we can definitely see that being put into adaptation, from some book or something. So it's all just guessing. But that's all this has always been anyway, after all. Let's dig in, with the "Locks," those "On The Bubble," those "Still Holding Out Hope" and the poor souls who will have to make do with the "For Your Consideration" ads. Today: Best Original Screenplay.

LOCKS

None.

ON THE BUBBLE

Woody Allen, "Midnight In Paris." This should probably be a lock. If Woody can get a nomination for "Mighty Aphrodite," he can get one for this.

Dustin Lance Black, "J. Edgar." Could switch categories, and it's worth noting again that no one has seen the film. Still.

STILL HOLDING OUT HOPE

Diablo Cody, "Young Adult." Probably not, actually. Lots of former winners in this category this year, though.

Michel Haznavicius, "The Artist." We guess we're the lone skeptics on this one, but we will believe this is some breakthrough feel-good hit when we see it.

Steve McQueen and Abi Morgan, "Shame." There is no greater screenwriter achievement than the words: "INSERT: A penis."

Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig, "Bridesmaids." With Melissa McCarthy possibly sneaking in as well, this could end up the most nominated Apatovian film as well.

Jeff Nichols, "Take Shelter." The ideal way to reward a critically beloved film no one saw.

INCLUDED SO THEY'LL KEEP BUYING FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION ADS

James Ward Byrtik, John Logan and Gore Verbiniski, "Rango."
Drake Doremus and Ben York Jones, "Like Crazy."
Sean Durkin, "Martha Marcy May Marlene."
Thomas McCarthy and Joe Tibani, "Win Win."
Mike Mills, "Beginners."
Oren Moverman and James Ellroy, "Rampart."
Will Reiser, "50/50."

(Next Week: Best Adapted Screenplay.)