The 2012 Oscar nominations come out on Tuesday, January 24, exactly 18 weeks from today, and we think everyone can agree that Glenn Close really, really wants an Oscar. (She's never won one. You're going to be hearing that a lot over the next 18 weeks.) Thus, we continue our weekly -- hey, we do lots of posts every week; we need some evergreens! -- breakdown of major Oscar categories. (Here's our most recent Best Picture and Best Actor lists.) It's so early that this is absolute guesswork, no "locks" or anything. But now that the film festivals are starting, some humans have actually seen these movies. That always helps. Let's dig in, with the "Locks," those "On The Bubble," those "Still Holding Out Hope" and the poor souls who will have to make do with the "For Your Consideration" ads. Today: Best Actress.
Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady." She's only won twice, and not since 1982. She's been nominated a record 16 times, and she's playing one of last century's most famous women. She might not win, but no way she's not getting nominated.
ON THE BUBBLE
Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs." Everything is pointing in her favor ... except for the little fact that very few people like the movie, particularly because Close in particular isn't convincing as a man.
Tilda Swinton, "We Need To Talk About Kevin." The movie is almost too horrifying to even describe, but it's difficult to imagine a better actress for the part.
Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn." If she pulls this off, we can imagine her ultimately even being the favorite.
STILL HOLDING OUT HOPE
Viola Davis, "The Help." She might go down to supporting, and if she does, she'll probably win.
Jodie Foster, "Carnage." This movie seems to exist only for Oscar nominations, and she's overdue.
Keira Knightley, "A Dangerous Method." Some think she should be supporting, and, suffice it to say, it's a polarizing performance.
Elizabeth Olsen, "Martha Marcy May Marlene." Still weird that those people are her sisters.
Charlize Theron, "Young Adult." Eventually, someone will see this movie.
INCLUDED SO THEY'LL KEEP BUYING FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION ADS
Sandra Bullock, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close."
Kristen Dunst, "Melancholia."
Felicity Jones, "Like Crazy."
Rooney Mara, "The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo."
Mia Wasikowska, "Jane Eyre."
Kate Winslet, "Carnage."
(Next Week: Best Supporting Actor.)