Golden Globes Predix — 2012 Will not be the End of the World as We Know it, and Expect to See Flattering Clooney and Brangelina Close-ups
Brad Pitt or George Clooney? Meryl Streep or Viola Davis? "The Artist" versus "The Descendants"? Predicting the Golden Globes can be like herding cats. The notoriously mercurial Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), a group of 90-odd foreign journalists and hangers-on hailing from Malaysia to Latvia, wavers between being starstruck (ratings!) and making the unpredictable serious statement (integrity?).
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Still, I can't help myself. I'm going to take a stab with a butter knife at who will win -- and who really deserves the honors. Check out my predictions. Make your own lists. And then tune in along with me for the 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards, airing live, with inevitable gaffes, on Sunday, January 15, 2012, on NBC.
Best Motion Picture -- Drama
Nominees: "The Descendants," "The Help," "Hugo," "The Ides of March," "Moneyball," "War Horse"
Who Will Win: "The Descendants"
Who Should Win: "The Descendants"
Why: "The Descendants" is currently the front-runner -- and it has George Clooney as its star and Alexander Payne behind the camera. The HFPA likes Payne. It's also a terrific movie -- adult, smart, literary, and with tremendous heart. It could almost be a French movie. That said, I wouldn't be completely surprised if "Moneyball" won. "The Help" even stands an outside chance.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture -- Drama
Nominees: Glenn Close ("Albert Nobbs"), Viola Davis ("The Help"), Rooney Mara ("The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"), Meryl Streep ("The Iron Lady"), Tilda Swinton ("We Need to Talk About Kevin")
Who Will Win: Meryl Streep
Who Should Win: Meryl Streep
Why: The HFPA loves Streep -- and she is brilliant as Margaret Thatcher. The movie is doing better in Europe than it is in America, so there should be very little resistance. They won't go for Mara -- she's no Nooni Rapace -- although she is the ingénue of the pack. Close's performance is medicinal. If there's an upset, it will come from Davis or Swinton.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture -- Drama
Nominees: George Clooney ("The Descendants"), Leonardo DiCaprio ("J. Edgar"), Michael Fassbender ("Shame"), Ryan Gosling ("The Ides of March"), Brad Pitt ("Moneyball")
Who Will Win: Brad Pitt
Who Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Why: This is where the HFPA shares the wealth -- if they give best pic to "The Descendants," then Brad takes best actor here. If not, it goes to Clooney. He's certainly fantastic in "The Descendants," but Fassbender really broke out this year with so many great roles beyond the one for which he's nominated, including "A Dangerous Method" and "Jane Eyre," not to mention the blockbuster "X-Men: First Class." The HFPA could demonstrate that they know how to be as brave as that actor was in "Shame."
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Nominees: "50/50," "The Artist," "Bridesmaids," "Midnight in Paris, "My Week With Marilyn"
Who Will Win: "The Artist"
Who Should Win: "The Artist"
Why: It was a very slow year for musicals, and we'd be happy if "Bridesmaids" proved us wrong as the genuinely laugh-out-loud comedy of the bunch. But it seems almost incomprehensible that "The Artist," the strongest Oscar contender of this category and a true joy to watch, won't win.