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Flop Level Midnight: Will ‘PA3′ and ‘Musketeers’ Pass the Flop Threshold?

The Projector

Welcome back to Flop Level Midnight, where we take a look at each of the new wide releases each week and mark what number domestic gross they need to hit to avoid the dreaded "flop" moniker. Remember: Much of this is contingent on a film's budget: The rule of thumb is that 40 percent of a movie's domestic gross comes its opening weekend, so, depending on the cost, there could be a lot of ground to make up, quick. High stakes! This week's contestants are "Paranormal Activity 3" and "The Three Musketeers 3-D." (We require 2,000 screens to make it into this post. Sorry Johnny English!) Let's do it.

Last Week: "Footloose" passed the flop threshold, but "The Thing" and "The Big Year" did not. "Footloose" sneaked past its $11 million mark, and "The Thing" fell well short of its $13 million number and "The Big Year" fell WAY short of its $7 million. "Real Steel" killed everything anyway.

Paranormal Activity 3. (No Projector Grade.) The last film grossed $40 million in its opening weekend, against a $3 million budget. That's just minting cash. We don't think this one will quite reach that level -- people have to get tired of these eventually, right? -- but if they keep costing $3 million, they'll make these for decades to come. Even if this one just barely crosses the threshold of $30 million.

The Three Musketeers 3-D. (No Projector Grade.) It's the movie everyone's rooting against! Paul W.S. Anderson does Dumas: Of course! We couldn't tell that Orlando Bloom and Christoph Waltz were even in this under that facial hair. Good for them. This appears to have cost a lot of money -- they won't say how much -- and it looks to be in big trouble. You'd think it has to hit $16 million at least, right? No way it's gonna make it.