Flop Level Midnight: Will ‘Jack and Jill,’ ‘Immortals’ and ‘J. Edgar’ Pass the Flop Threshold?

Will Leitch
Editor
The Projector


Welcome back to Flop Level Midnight, where we take a look at each of the new wide releases every week and mark what dollar amount in domestic gross they need to hit to avoid the dreaded "flop" moniker. Remember: Much of this is contingent upon a film's budget: The rule of thumb is that 40 percent of a movie's domestic gross comes its opening weekend, so, depending on the cost, there could be a lot of ground to make up, quick. High stakes! This week's contestants are "Immortals," "Jack and Jill" and "J. Edgar." Let's do it.

Last Week: We are racking up the flops, folks. Both "Tower Heist" and "A Very Harold and Kumar 3D Christmas" fell well short. "Tower Heist" was $4 million short of its $28 million number, and "Harold and Kumar" was $2 million short of its $15 million number. But "Tower Heist" will be remembered as the bigger disappointment.

Jack and Jill. (The Projector Grade: D+.) "Just Go With It" made $30 million its opening weekend, and that was in February, with almost no promotion other than a closeup of Brooklyn Decker jogging. (Which was probably enough.) Some think this'll do worse, perhaps because good God those ads. Still: It's Sandler. It's a family film. This still reeks of "Little Nicky" a bit for us, but it's still gotta get past $24 million, doesn't it?

Immortals. (The Projector Grade: C+.) It costs $75 million, it's rated R and the general consensus is that it's a "300" clone, or a Xerox. It might do a little better if it were coming out after Henry Cavill plays Superman. We actually like the movie more than most people -- it sure is pretty -- but this reeks of trouble, especially at that price. Does it have to hit $27 million? We think it does. And we bet it doesn't make it.

J. Edgar. (The Projector Grade: B.) There have been some bad reviews -- though they haven't been near as uniformly bad as this film's detractors will have you think -- but this is still Leonardo DiCaprio playing a big historical figure who everybody knows, in a movie by Clint Eastwood. The limited release numbers were fantastic, and this has plenty of time to grow. If it earns over $8 million on 1,900 screens -- and it will -- everyone will be plenty happy.