Liz Loza, Andy Behrens & Matt Harmon discuss three players they believe are being drafted way ahead of their value: Cowboys WR Amari Cooper, Bills RB Devin Singletary and Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette.
LIZ LOZA: And now unfortunately we have to talk about the opposite of loving, which is not hating but maybe fading. Let's just temper that a little bit. There's enough macabre nonsense to deal with in this world.
So let's talk about three players that we are fading again at their ADP. Doesn't mean we don't love the player. Just don't like where they're going right now. Andy, you, in fact, do really like the player you want to talk about.
ANDY BEHRENS: Oh yeah, I really enjoy watching Devin Singletary run. This is a good back. He was a 5.1 yard per carry guy last year. The problems are that we need our fantasy running backs to catch passes, and we need them to have a role at the goal line. No matter how good they are between the 20s, we need touchdowns, we need catches, and that's not really his thing.
He was a pretty inefficient receiver last season, and they bring in Zack Moss, who was just a wonderful collegiate receiver over multiple seasons. He's a bigger back. He's 220. He kind of fits that role that you think of when you think of a guy that you just feed the ball in goal-to-go situations.
Moss is a perfect fit for the role that they were trying to give the rotting husk of Frank Gore last year, right? Gore had 18 carries inside the 10-yard line, Josh Allen had 10, and Devin Singletary had three. Devin Singletary had no role when they got near the goal line. Josh Allen, obviously, a very good goal-line rusher as well. That's just not gonna be his job.
And again, not a particularly adept receiver. So we have to project something like 25 to 30 catches for Singletary. Very few touchdowns. Now he's a good enough runner that he can score from 40 yards out, right? But we can't bank on that in fantasy. So I just don't think the touchdown total and the reception total are gonna justify the draft cost.
LIZ LOZA: Andy, I'm gonna ask you just off the cuff here about another running back. What's your favorite hate stat for Leonard Fournette in 2019?
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, that would be the fact that Leonard Fournette caught 76 balls last season and not one of them became a touchdown. That's hard to do.
LIZ LOZA: Yeah, and that is why Leonard Fournette is the player that I want to fade in the third round. Are you bananas? As Andy just alluded to, his fantasy numbers were massively lifted by his work in the passing game last year, and he is not going to see 100 targets again in 2020. Not with Chris Thompson reuniting with Jay Gruden, and not with Tyler Eifert-- hello there-- sneaking on to the Jaguars roster.
That means that most of his production is gonna have to come from his rushing work, but he's not good at that. This is the player who managed 3.9 true yards per carry. That was RB 40 last year. I understand the volume argument, and I would take him in like the fifth-ish round, top of the sixth maybe. But I am not drafting him ahead of Mark Ingram, who Andy already hyped, or even Le'Veon Bell.
Matt, you are known for receivers. You have had some up and down feelings about this player, probably because his production, despite so many years in the league, remains up and down.
MATT HARMON: Yeah, look, I'm really excited about the Cowboys offense. I think Dak Prescott is maybe not undervalued, but he's a really exciting player coming into 2020. And I think he could be the top fantasy quarterback. And I don't think anybody should be surprised because this offense is that good.
But that said, I don't want to be taking their top receiver, Amari Cooper, where he's going in drafts. Because, look, the reality is I don't think the gap that exists between the ADP of Cooper to Michael Gallup or CeeDee Lamb is going to be as wide of a gap as their workload is. In fact, last year Michael Gallup, in the 14 games that he played, had a higher percentage share of the team air yards and the team targets.
And I don't think the talent gap between Cooper and Gallup is all that wide either. Gallup's a guy who had 1,100 yards and was a really consistent, steady route runner. Great at the contested catch game, too, and that's been a theme since he was a collegiate guy. I don't think the talent gap is that wide between these two guys, especially because, like you said, we know who Cooper is.
Gallup is still an ascending player. And Cooper, you mentioned it, it's the inconsistency. People always say, well, why is Amari Cooper so inconsistent? Why is the box score so up and down? Well, it's because he's an inconsistent player, and I don't know why we should expect that to change this far into his career. There's always something going on.
And look, the Cowboys have done a good job. Credit to the crazy Jason Garrett coaching staff. They've actually done a pretty good job moving him around, getting him in the slot, getting him as a flanker, moving him around pre-snap to do what he does best.
Because he's just not a good, consistent route runner against press man coverage. That's why he disappears against guys like Darius Slay, Marshon Lattimore, Jalen Ramsey. Because he's not this elite route runner that some of the highlight clips from the Checkdown account or the NFL account would show you.
And again, I think at this point his career, he is what he is. And I just don't see a situation where they have all this talent at wide receiver where it would be smart for them to funnel 140 targets to Amari Cooper, which is kind of what you're gonna need to get a payback on where he's going in fantasy right now.