walter: I made my living as an economic forecaster and as an expert witness and cross-examiner in finance at public hearings. Here are some facts: 1. No person can accurately predict the financial future. If they could, they would own the whole world. 2. At every adversarial public hearing in which I was the cross-examiner, I always asked the following question, first, of my opposition witness; "Isn't it correct that your testimony is your opinion, and not fact?" They always had to answer 'yes'. And I always wanted that on the record. 3. Anyone who tells you that they know, with certainty, what the economy will do tomorrow, next week, or next year is lying to you. 4. In every single stock or bond transaction that takes place, the seller of the asset is convinced that the asset will soon devalue. And the buyer is certain that the asset will soon increase in value. And in each such transaction, one of them is wrong. Or, sometimes, both of them are wrong, and the asset's value remains unchanged.