Trump's re-election chances plunge amid rise in coronavirus fears, according to major oddsmaker
President Trump’s odds to win re-election are plunging amid a rise in coronavirus fears, according to one major offshore betting giant’s book.
Odds calculated by Irish bookmaker Paddy Power show Trump’s chances of winning a second term fell from nearly 67% as of Feb. 10 to just 56% as of Tuesday as fears of coronavirus rattled global markets.
“As with most things with coronavirus, we see caution and while we’re really bullish about Trump, even just a week ago we’ve lost about 11% confidence in Trump just because of coronavirus,” Paddy Power’s Lee Price told Yahoo Finance’s YFi PM. “In fairness, I should say he’s still the overwhelming favorite in this market.”
On the Democratic side, Senator Bernie Sanders has been experiencing his own reckoning, with his chances of winning the Democratic nomination plummeting in the wake of former Vice President Joe Biden’s strong Super Tuesday performances. In total, Paddy Power calculates Sanders’ odds to be the nominee who have fallen from 38% as of March 2 to just 11% as of Tuesday.
“Some might call it a two-horse race, we’re calling it a one-horse race, a foregone conclusion,” Lee said. “This is an incredible turnaround for Biden.”
While the betting odds are calculated from bets placed from individuals outside the U.S., odds compiled by politics publication FiveThirtyEight have shown a similar drop in Sanders’ chances to stage a comeback. A poor showing in Tuesday’s slate of primaries could help Biden clinch a definitive path to the Democratic convention.
In the head-to-head matchup between Trump and Biden, Paddy Power’s betting data reflects a shrinking gap, but still predicts a Trump win. Trump had earned 56% odds of defeating Biden as of last week, but that had fallen to just 52% as of Tuesday.
Zack Guzman is the host of YFi PM as well as a senior writer and on-air reporter covering entrepreneurship, cannabis, startups, and breaking news at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @zGuz.
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