On the day that President Trump is poised to launch his re-election bid in Florida, a new poll finds that he is trailing in the crucial swing state to every top-tier Democrat in the running.
According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Trump would lose an election in Florida by the following margins to:
Joe Biden, 50-41
Bernie Sanders, 48-42
Elizabeth Warren, 47-43
Kamala Harris, 45-44
Beto O’Rourke, 45-44
Pete Buttigieg, 44-43
In a head-to-head matchup with Trump, the poll suggests, Biden could capture 7 percent of the GOP vote in addition to 54 percent of independents.
The Q poll arrives on the same day Trump is staging his kickoff rally in Orlando. (This is a PR exercise. Trump has been running for re-election since January 2017.) It comes on the same day the Orlando Sentinel ran an unusually early presidential endorsement: “Not Donald Trump.” (The conservative-leaning paper, which endorsed Mitt Romney in 2012, writes: “Enough of the chaos, the division, the schoolyard insults, the self-aggrandizement, the corruption, and especially the lies…. The nation must endure another 1½ years of Trump. But it needn’t suffer another four beyond that.”)
Like many aging New Yorkers, Trump has embraced Florida as a second home state. He’s branded Mar-a-Lago as the “Southern White House,” spending nearly 100 days of his presidency there. But Florida voters are not returning the love. Trump’s approval rating stands at 44 percent in the Sunshine State, with 51 percent of voters disapproving — including 58 percent of Hispanics and 79 percent of black voters.
Florida remains a very challenging state for Democrats. “Florida Republicans have won the last five major statewide elections,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Q poll. But these “very early numbers” are a sign for Democrats, he added, “that their losing streak might be coming to an end.”
Polling the Democratic primary, the Q survey finds former vice president Biden has a huge lead, with 41 percent support, followed by Sanders at 18 percent, Warren at 12, Buttigieg at 8, and Harris at 6. The poll highlights what is becoming a troubling trend for Buttigieg. The South Bend, Indiana, mayor scores well among white voters (14 percent) but registers another goose egg among voters of color.
If there’s one, dubious, bright spot for Trump it’s that his support among white men looks firm as bedrock — ranging from 61-33 percent against Biden to 65-28 percent against Harris.