Throwing Darts: Against-the-spread picks for Week 10
The last few weeks have been favorite-dominated in the NFL, and that’s rarely going to be good for me. But we still have an overall winning record this year (and in seven of eight years), so we hold the heads up. Let’s bark up a few Week 10 selections, and then we’ll give the floor to esteemed colleagues E. Brad Evans and Dalton Del Don.
Pianow’s Week 10 Darts
• Bills +2.5 vs. Saints: One of the last significant home-field advantages in the NFL, and up against a dome team that generally doesn’t like to travel and play outdoors. The Bills don’t look as pretty on the metric sheet, but perhaps they’ve earned some of that turnover edge with careful and well-coached play. I’m just asking Buffalo to win, and I have a buffer even if it loses.
• Packers +5 at Bears: Chicago has the better defense and, sadly, the more bankable offense right now. Bears have played well at home. I’m going to dial up some Jordan Howard on the DFS slates. But the line has accounted for all this, and perhaps is too engorged for a rivalry game where neither team is explosive on offense. You also get the idea this match will end 30 minutes before any other game does; that’s a good thing if you’re grabbing five.
• Browns +13.5 at Lions: Detroit’s found something that works — letting Matthew Stafford and his two receivers run the entire offense — but the win at Green Bay isn’t as monumental as it used to be, and now it returns home, on a short week, to play an opponent you can easily overlook. Not suggesting Detroit will shank this game, but it looks like a letdown spot where the favored hosts squeak by.
• Buccaneers +1 vs. Jets: This is a game I’m unapologetically jacked for. The Jets are watchable every week, and the Bucs, well, they’ll probably be better with a healthy Ryan Fitzpatrick than they were with an injured Jameis Winston. The Jets were notably underrated for two months, but this line shows you the perception has caught up. It’s the perfect time to go the other way. Get ready for the secret handshake, Harvard Fitzpatrick to Harvard Brate.
• 49ers Even vs. Giants: Despite the winless record, I still respect Kyle Shanahan and think he’ll eventually fix this. Ben McAdoo is obviously on the way out in New York, and his locker room hates playing for him. That doesn’t mean the Giants can’t rally out of spite — or for their own self-interest in this year-by-year league — but I don’t have the nerve to trust their coach until the ship steadies a bit. Niners have the motivation to avoid 0-16, which is a tangible, real thing. No one cares if you go 1-15.
Historical Record (Against the Spread, ties excluded):
2017: 24-20 (1-3-1 last week, thanks Julio)
2016: 43-40
2015: 48-36
2014: 43-40
2013: 34-49
2012: 50-33
2011: 41-39
2010: 49-34
(Nothing to do with football: It’s a horrible video but a terrific song; this was Friday’s music selection.)
Bradley Evans, the floor is yours.
• #TeamHuevos Total of the Week: NYJ/TB OVER 43.5. With a pair of seasoned explorers under center for their respective franchises, most would automatically shy away from “shootout” claims. But Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick should operate almost uninhibitedly through the air. The Jets have given up 280.6 pass yards per game and 12 passing touchdowns over their past five. Meanwhile, Tampa has given up 7.9 yards per attempt and 278.6 pass yards per game. Even with Brent Grimes expected to start, the Bucs D wields a NERF sword vertically. Add a pinch of salt and mix it together and it feels like the Jets, who’ve hit the over in three consecutive games, mosey into the OK Corral. Fearless Forecast: NYJ 27 TB 23
• #FadeTheNoise ATS Pick of the Week: JAC (-6.5) vs. LAC. The Jaguars are a legitimate dark horse Super Bowl representative. And, no, I’m not inebriated. Though from a tropical locale, they’re a team constructed to thrive in cold conditions. Jacksonville, featuring A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey, boasts the nastiest secondary in the league. Adding Marcell Dareus at the trade deadline, its run defense also isn’t too shabby. Throw in battering ram Leonard Fournette and it has the ingredients necessary to make a deep run. At home, the Jags (5-3 ATS) should handle business with relative ease. The Chargers, surrendering 4.70 yards per carry to RBs, have no answer for Fournette. Meow! Fearless Forecast: JAC 24 LAC 16
Dalton Del Don, close it out.
• Supercontest: My partner and I sit 22-22-1 at the near halfway point of the season, so like Jerry Seinfeld, we’re Even Steven. If we want to make any kind of run, we have to get on it fast. This week we went with the Redskins (+1), Chargers (+3.5), Bengals (+4.5), Cowboys (+3) and Giants (-2.5). I also made Dallas my best bet of the week, although subsequent news of the Ezekiel Elliott suspension wasn’t ideal. Still, I’m not buying this Falcons team at all, and Dak Prescott is the real deal. This spread should be around a pick ‘em, so I’ll gladly take three points and the better team.
• Parlay of the Week: Let’s go money line and mix in a couple of college games. If you’re lucky enough to still be alive in your Survivor pool, there are a few strong options this week. At least I’m hoping so here. I’m taking Notre Dame (-155), Washington Huskies (-230), Steelers (-470), Lions (-557) and Rams (-625) all to win outright. BET = $100 to win $292
