Our Editors Make Their Predictions on Who Will Medal at the Tokyo Olympics
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The Tokyo Olympics formally kicked off on July 23 with the Opening Ceremony, and track and field steps into the spotlight on July 30, which is the first of 10 days of events.
Based on recent performances and experience, the Runner’s World editors have picked the runner who we think is a lock to finish on the podium in each running event, from the 100 meters all the way to the marathon. Here is a breakdown of our predictions for each event.
How to watch track and field at the Tokyo Olympics
100 meters
Women: Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce, Jamaica
Less than two months ago, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce ran a 10.63 in the 100 meters in Kingston, Jamaica—it’s the fastest time in the world this year, and only world record-holder Florence Griffith-Joyner has run faster (10.49). The 34-year-old, who has medaled in this event at every Olympics since 2008 (two golds and a bronze), is in prime position to win her fourth medal. If she wins gold, she could become the oldest person to win an individual Olympic sprint and the first woman to win three 100-meter golds at the Olympics.
Men: Trayvon Bromell, United States
Trayvon Bromell has clocked the two fastest times in the world this year in this event (9.77, a personal best, and 9.80, winning the U.S. Olympic Track and Field Trials), putting a target on his back in Tokyo. This is Bromell’s second Olympic Games; he finished eighth in the 100 meters in Rio, badly hampered by an Achilles tendon injury. The 26-year-old raced sparingly between 2017 and 2019, rounding back into form in 2020. Can he maintain his status as the fastest man in the world this year and be the first American man to win Olympic gold in the event since Justin Gatlin in 2004?
100-meter/110-meter hurdles
Women: Keni Harrison, United States
When Team USA swept this event in Rio in 2016, Keni Harrison was watching at home. After coming into the Trials as an undefeated favorite, she finished a disappointing sixth. Her quest for redemption began just two weeks later, when she broke the world record with a 12.20 at the London Müller Anniversary Games, and has continued since, with highlights including a silver medal at the 2019 IAAF World Championships.
Like Harrison, Puerto Rico’s Jasmine Camacho-Quinn has also prevailed in every race she finished this year and has unfulfilled Olympic dreams—she fell in the semifinals in Rio. But Harrison, 28, has more recent championship experience and appears to have timed her peak perfectly, winning the finals at Trials with a season-best 12.47.
Men: Grant Holloway, United States
In February, Grant Holloway set the indoor world record of 7.29 in the 60-meter hurdles. Five months later, in the Trials semifinals in the 110-meter hurdles, he narrowly missed another world mark when he ran a personal-best 12.81 (the world record is 12.80, set by American Aries Merritt in 2012). He went on to win the final in 12.96. The eight-time NCAA champion for the University of Florida and 2019 world champion, 23, said afterward breaking the record at the Olympics felt possible, but it isn’t his primary goal: “As long as [the medal is] a gold, it doesn’t matter what the time is,” he said.
200 meters
Women: Gabby Thomas, United States
Gabby Thomas’s triumphant Trials finish—arms with a single red sleeve held high, even as she clocked a world-leading 21.61, the third-fastest time ever—rocketed around the world, earning her appearances on Today and tweets from everyone from actress Kerry Washington to White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki. And, it suggests even faster times—potentially, threats to Florence Griffith Joyner’s 21.34 world record—may be ahead for the 24-year-old Harvard alum and University of Texas public-health graduate student, who trains under renowned coach Tonja Buford-Bailey.
Men: Noah Lyles, United States
After a heart-breaking fourth-place finish in the 200 meters at the 2016 Trials, Noah Lyles won the event at the 2019 world championships. He kicked off the 2020 season with a world record, kind of. Lyles ran 18.90 at the Inspiration Games, a virtual competition, but it was later revealed that a lane mixup left his run 15 meters short (Usain Bolt’s world record 19.19, set in 2009, still stands). As more traditional competitions returned, Lyles posted more victories, winning the USATF Golden Games at Mt. SAC in 19.90 before running a world-leading, season’s-best 19.74 seconds to win the Trials. Now, the 24-year-old is poised to return Team USA to the podium in the 200 after a shutout in Rio in 2016.
400 meters
Women: Stephenie Ann McPherson, Jamaica
For the first time since 2013, Stephenie Ann McPherson, 32, broke the 50-second barrier in the women’s 400 meters, showing she’s ready for a breakthrough performance in Tokyo. To win the Jamaican Championships on June 27, McPherson finished the one-lap race in 49.61, a personal best and the fifth-fastest time in the world so far this year. The Jamaican sprinter has been a mainstay on the global stage, collecting five top six finishes in the 400 meters at every global championship since 2013. Her last individual medal was bronze at the 2013 IAAF World Championships, and she looks poised to earn more hardware in her second Olympic Games.
Men: Michael Norman, United States
When Michael Norman, 23, won the Trials with a 44.07, he ran up to the stands to hug his mother, Nobue Saito Norman—now, he’s a favorite to win gold in her home country of Japan, where she was also a sprinter. The moment felt even sweeter since Norman not only missed making the Rio team in the 200 meters four years ago—at the time, he’d just graduated high school—but headed into the 2019 world championships with an injury and failed to make the finals in the 400. Now, he’s back in top form, winning the 400 meters at the Doha Diamond League meet May 28 in 44.27 before claiming his Trials victory.
400-meter hurdles
Women: Sydney McLaughlin, United States
In case you missed it, Sydney McLaughlin set the world record in the 400-meter hurdles in spectacular fashion at the U.S. Olympic Trials, running 51.90 to win the event. She’s the only woman to break 52 seconds in the event, and it’s possible she’ll need to do it again in order to win Olympic gold. Nonetheless, the 21-year-old is a strong pick to medal in this event, assuming she can hold off fellow American and reigning gold-medalist Dalilah Muhammad.
Men: Karsten Warholm, Norway
Warholm also broke the world record in the men’s 400-meter hurdles recently; on July 1, he ran 46.70 at the Diamond League meet in Oslo to take down a nearly 30-year-old mark. The 25-year-old has been dominant in this event over the last three years, winning gold at the 2017 European U23 Championships, the 2018 European Championships, and the 2017 and 2019 world championships. While that easily makes him the runner to beat in this event at the Olympics, he’ll face stiff competition from American Rai Benjamin.
800 meters
Women: Athing Mu, United States
After a record-breaking freshman year in the NCAA and beyond, it seems that Athing Mu’s potential has no bounds. The Texas A&M standout broke the NCAA indoor and outdoor records in the women’s 800 meters, turned pro, and demolished the field to win the U.S. Olympic Trials in the second-fastest time ever run by an American. Her winning performance of 1:56.07 is a world lead and broke a 25-year-old U.S. Trials record. Even though Tokyo will be Mu’s first Olympic Games, the 19-year-old’s progression and dominant racing style make her a medal lock.
Men: Ferguson Rotich, Kenya
Ferguson Rotich’s consistency on the world stage makes him a favorite to medal in the men’s 800 meters. The Kenyan middle-distance runner earned bronze at the 2019 world championships in Doha, Qatar. At the Rio Games, he finished fifth overall. One year earlier, he collected a fifth-place finish at the 2015 IAAF World Championships in Beijing. While his current season’s best of 1:43.57 is ranked sixth in the world, Rotich can usually be counted on to be within striking distance of the podium.
1500 meters
Women: Faith Kipyegon, Kenya
Three years after giving birth to her daughter, Alyn, Faith Kipyegon lowered her own Kenyan national record in the women’s 1500 meters, making her a favorite to defend her Olympic gold medal in Tokyo. At the Monaco Diamond League meet, Kipyegon ran away from world champion Sifan Hassan to achieve a winning time of 3:51.07, which moved her to fourth on the all-time list. The following day, she blazed the track again with a 3:53 performance to finish second at the Golden Gala in Rome, showing promising fitness heading into three rounds of the 1500 meters at the Games.
Men: Timothy Cheruiyot, Kenya
Defending world champion Timothy Cheruiyot is looking poised to win his first ever Olympic medal. The Kenyan middle-distance runner rebounded from a fourth-place finish at the country’s trials by running 3:28.28, a world-leading time and new personal best, to win the men’s 1500 meters at the Monaco Diamond League meet on July 9. Cheruiyot won gold at the 2019 world championships and earned a silver medal at the 2017 world championships in his signature event.
3,000-meter steeplechase
Women: Beatrice Chepkoech, Kenya
Beatrice Chepkoech started the 2021 season with a record-breaking performance, which showed great momentum for the defending world champion heading into the postponed Tokyo Games. At the Monaco Run in February, the steeplechase world record-holder smashed another world record in the 5K. She ran 14:43, averaging a 4:44/mile pace on the roads. In her signature event, she secured a season’s best time of 9:04 while finishing second at the Monaco Diamond League meet on July 9. After finishing fourth in Rio, Chepkoech will be looking to win her first Olympic medal this summer.
Men: Soufiane El Bakkali, Morocco
After just missing the podium at the Rio Games with a fourth-place finish, Sioufiane El Bakkali rebounded with two world championship medals. The steeplechaser from Morocco earned silver at the 2017 IAAF World Championships in London and collected bronze at the 2019 world championships in Doha. Both podium finishes plus his season’s best of 8:08 (No. 3 in the world so far this season) make him a medal contender in Tokyo.
5,000 meters
Women: Sifan Hassan, the Netherlands
Sifan Hassan, 28, has shown incredible range over past two years. She holds the world record in the mile (4:12.33), and she has run 3:51.95 for 1500 meters, 14:22.12 for 5,000 meters, and 29:06.82 for 10,000 meters, which was a world record for two days in June. She is on the start lists for all three events in Tokyo. Will she do all three? It would require 24,500 meters of racing over nine days.
Hassan, who was born in Ethiopia and competes for the Netherlands, took home two golds from the 2019 world championships in Doha, with an unprecedented 1500/10,000 double. When the bell rings for the final lap of the Olympic 5,000 meters, she’ll be in the medal mix.
Men: Mo Ahmed, Canada
Mo Ahmed has as good a shot as anyone for a medal in a deep 5,000-meter field. Last summer, as the pandemic had shut down most racing opportunities, Ahmed ran 12:47.20 in a Bowerman Track Club intrasquad time trial on a high school track. It was the 11th-fastest time in history and a Canadian record. The 30-year-old was fourth in the 5,000 meters at the 2016 Games in Rio, and he took the bronze medal in the distance at the 2019 world championships in Doha. In June, he ran 12:50.12 for third place at the Florence Diamond League meet, the second-fastest time of his life.
10,000 meters
Women: Letesenbet Gidey, Ethiopia
Letesenbet Gidey is the world record-holder in two events—the 5,000 meters (14:06.62) and 10,000 meters (29:01.03)—but she is focusing solely on the 10,000 meters in Tokyo. In 2019, Gidey took silver behind Sifan Hassan in the 10,000 meters at the world championships in Doha. But in June this year, Gidey broke Hassan’s world record in the event, only two days after Hassan set it. With Hassan possibly gearing up to triple in Tokyo, Gidey will have fresh legs going into this event.
Men: Joshua Cheptegei, Uganda
Joshua Cheptegei had an astonishing 2020, when he set three world records—for the road 5K in February (12:51), 5,000 meters on the track in August (12:35.36), and 10,000 meters on the track in October (26:11.00). His 10,000-meter time lowered by 6.5 seconds the previous world record, set by Kenenisa Bekele of Ethiopia 15 years earlier.
The 24-year-old has raced sparingly in 2021; his most recent result was in the 5,000 meters in June at a Diamond League meet in Florence, when he ran 12:54.69 and finished sixth. Will he need to be at his best to medal in Tokyo? His record is 19 seconds faster than the next-fastest Tokyo entrant. He is entered in both the 10,000 meters and 5,000 meters in Tokyo.
Marathon
Women: Brigid Kosgei, Kenya
Kosgei stunned the world at the 2019 Chicago Marathon, where she ran 2:14:04 and shattered the previous world record of 2:15:25, set by Great Britain’s Paula Radcliffe in 2003. Kosgei, now 27, averaged 5:06.8 per mile during that record-setting effort. Her most recent marathon was London last October, which she won in 2:18:58. Kosgei ran alone from the 18th mile to the finish. If she’s near or at her best in Sapporo, she’ll be well ahead of the field.
Men: Eliud Kipchoge, Kenya
Kipchoge holds the unofficial marathon world record—1:59:41, which he ran in October 2019 at the INEOS 1:59 Challenge. He also holds the official marathon world record—2:01:39, which he ran at the 2018 Berlin Marathon, one of eight times he has broken the tape at a World Marathon Major. And yes, he’s the reigning Olympic gold medalist, winning in 2016 by 70 seconds. (He also holds a silver from 2008 and a bronze from 2004 in the 5,000 meters.)
The lone blemish of the 36-year-old’s recent marathon dominance was his eighth-place finish at the 2020 London Marathon, held on a looped course. There, an earache was his undoing. But in April this year, he won a marathon in the Netherlands in 2:04:30 and was pleased with it as a test of his fitness before Tokyo. “My preparations for the Olympic Games are going really well,” he wrote on Instagram on July 12. Look for Kipchoge on the Olympic medal stand for a fourth time.
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